Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 08/11/2018 01:44

I am sure you will all enjoy listening to Jonathan Lander at the MelloLondon investor event on 26th November. Do not leave it too late to buy a ticket though as we have less than 200 left...



Jonathan Lander is the founder and CEO of Volvere plc, the turnaround investment company. Volvere’s net assets per share have grown at a compound rate of 17% annually for nearly 16 years and its share price has risen to 11x the price at which the company was admitted to AIM in 2002. Jonathan has 30 years’ experience in venture capital and investment banking, both as an investor and as an adviser.

[the big fella] 07/11/2018 14:08

Yes we are certainly entering a buyers market in that respect.

[rivaldo] 07/11/2018 13:43

Agreed Melf, I was thinking much the same. And also timed perfectly in terms of utilising the huge cash pile to acquire businesses in need of cash flow, as Simso said above.

[melf] 05/11/2018 10:17

There seems to be a constant flow of disappointing new car sales news recently. Seems to me that the Landers timed the IAL disposal to perfection.

[simso] 02/11/2018 12:30

Melf. Possible there is a tip somewhere, but even if not, logic would dictate that sellers must have "dried up", given we all had the opportunity to sell as many was we wanted earlier this week, and could sell in size and in the middle of the spread (If you wanted to!). Hopefully a few astute Buyers around, recognising what we already know!

The share price this week has been at a discount to cash, ascribing no value to Shire (which could make c£1m Profit this year and has Freehold Property). I agree with the sentiment rivaldo expressed earlier..that Cash with Landers should be recognised at a premium rather than discount. They have an unblemished record over 15 years, the last acquisition turned into a 20 bagger in 3 years. One assumes the current uncertain economic landscape could lead to increasing opportunities to acquire businesses with real potential but financially constrained.

Looking forward to seeing JL again later this month at Mello Chiswick.

[rivaldo] 02/11/2018 12:30

I haven't see anything new. I assume people are cottoning on to the value here - and to the safety net in volatile markets.

[melf] 02/11/2018 11:33

Has it been tipped or is there a positive write-up somewhere?

[eezymunny] 31/10/2018 16:28

I suspect some double counting of cash possibly going on. Don't forget there was a cash balance (£2m at Dec 31?) in Impetus and that may have gone with the disposal.

My best guess is tangible NAV c. £12/share next time we see a balance sheet (unless acq or disposal before then.) We can't be sure precisely what's what but I think can be confident that valuation is currently below tangible NAV, which given the history is totally and utterly laughable IMVHO. But then it's been laughable for years and given us great buying ops along the way. Long may it continue that way ;)

[rivaldo] 31/10/2018 11:59

Hi Melf. I've used Simso's valuation in the thread header post, which does include the Shire freehold. You could say his valuation is conservative on a post-tax P/E of only 5, but I'd assume a food business like this won't achieve a P/E of more than 10 at maximum, so perhaps a P/E of 7 or 8 rather than 5 might be achievable, and 9 or 10 if the recent investment in machinery etc brings about an improvement in prospects.

[melf] 31/10/2018 11:35

Riv, what about the freehold in Shire which I believe is valued at c£2.5m. Is that included in the valuation? If not,it puts nearly a quid on the share price

[rivaldo] 31/10/2018 11:28

The share price should logically trade at around the "true" NAV, i.e around 1375p (which is of course subjective except for the 1186p of cash).

But then VLE should trade at a premium to that NAV per share to give some value to management's ability and track record, and to the potential for upside from reinvestment of the cash pile.

[zoolook] 31/10/2018 10:54

Do you mean a premium to the current share price or did you mean a premium to the NAV or SOP valuation ?

[rivaldo] 31/10/2018 10:47

Re-working the calculations then....

Let's say VLE now have around £37m of cash - £19m net of borrowings at 30/6/18, plus £23.1m from Impetus (incl, the deferred), plus say a round £0.9m from trading since 30/6, less the £6m buyback.

There are now 3.12m shares in issue.

So VLE now have 1186p per share of cash.

Simso valued Shire at £4.8m. That's another 153p per share.

Adding in a bit for Sira gives 1350p-1400p per share of core value.

With a track record like theirs, the Landers should really command an additional premium to the share price, especially since we'll hopefully hear further acquisition news in the not too distant future.

[zoolook] 31/10/2018 09:17

Some positive commentary by Graham Neary yesterday on the buyback.

He confirmed the VLE is his largest single position and he has no immediate intentions to sell.

As he is generally a reluctant seller we can expect a long term commentary from him on updates whilst he remains a contributor to Stockopedia.

*edit

link here: hxxps://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-tue-30-october-2018-market-view-mello-london-tsla-vle-duke-igg-phd-ast-413269/

[malnu] 31/10/2018 02:54

Easy fix zangdook. Get a good broker and dump yer sluggish one! Paying a little more brokerage usually pays off in the long run...

[simso] 30/10/2018 15:18

It looks like 487k of the 550k shares sold were from the two Lander Brothers...each selling around 1/3rd of their stake. Very little selling outside of those two.

[zangdook] 30/10/2018 14:27

I'm not despairing, I just think it's a little unfair that it's done so quickly that PIs with sluggish brokers can't get their share.

[malnu] 30/10/2018 13:04

Never despair. There will be more buy-backs to come whereby the company seeks to retain 15-20m in cash.

[zangdook] 30/10/2018 11:57

Presumably all those small 1102s are smaller shareholders who managed to get their requests in in time....

Did anyone here manage to get in with a nominee holding?

[rivaldo] 30/10/2018 10:13

There's the buyback at 1102p, with one trade of 550,254 shares and contra trades including a 317k and a 170k. There will have to be an RNS later to disclose the changes in director shareholdings.

That's £6m gone - still £37m+ of cash left in the kitty :o))

[the big fella] 26/10/2018 08:05

Thanks Rhomboid. I knew I recognised the name. Not my favourite memory 😒. I will look to tender as I have a large holding here.

[jaf111] 26/10/2018 07:45

I suspect it will be very difficult for private investors to tender due to the very tight timescales especially the execution only brokers.

[rhomboid] 25/10/2018 16:59

Re DB/Langbar

..he was the insolvency practioner

[the big fella] 25/10/2018 16:27

Yes, but you will need your broker to do it for you.