Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[eezymunny] 17/1/2020 17:10

Upside texas, with a sale of Shire for say £12m would be a cash balance at VLE of c. £29m. So close to 40% upside.

May not happen for years of course. May sell for less etc etc. Risk reward here though looks to be astonishingly good. Almost no downside unless Shire suddenly becomes loss-making and decent upside. It's right up my street.

[texas_caddy] 17/1/2020 17:02

Question for me is how much upside, how long and opportunity cost.

I’m happy to hold but won’t be adding just now. Potential of Shire vegan product growth and the discount supermarket rollout will hopefully bear fruit.

[1tarquin] 17/1/2020 16:44

It's an investment that requires patience and it seems few investors are blessed with that trait.

After tendering the majority of my shares, I've been buying some back this week.

Agreed, it seems crazy to me that someone would sell now for £11.10

[jaf111] 17/1/2020 16:32

yes completely agree Eezy....some crazy selling not justtoday / this week, but over the past few months....no doubt their foolishness will be proven before too long (hopefully!!!)

[rivaldo] 15/1/2020 15:00

Useful summary of Shire Simso, cheers.

A sudden burst of buying from 14.29 this afternoon - almost £31,000's worth, so quite material in terms of VLE's usual trading.

[simso] 23/12/2019 10:49

A crucial part of the Lander's success over almost 20 years is that they only acquire when they are certain they can make money. I am sure they review scores of opportunities every month..and suspect those where they feel 80-90% sure are rejected. Their record is unblemished to date, and I for one am happy to remain patient while they source the right deal.

While that process of sourcing deals is ongoing, I do think there is evidence of really worthwhile progress at Shire. Shire is in a difficult industry, and Supermarkets have significant pricing power. Shire's Gross Margin had reduced from 20% in 2015 down to 14% in 2018. Net Margin (ROS%) reduced from 10% to 5% over that period...and arguably these metrics would indicate a lower quality business, which would command a low multiple on any Sale.

However, the Interim results were very encouraging on a number of fronts. Not only a strong sales growth of +39%...but also an improvement of +3.5% points of Gross Margin and +4.5% points of Net Margin. A "High Case" view for FY19 might be that growth in those metrics continued from H1 into H2...then Shire could make £2m of PBT. A "Low case" view of no growth in Sales/Margin/Cost efficiency in H2 could still imply £1.2m. It seems reasonable to hope for somewhere between high and low case...perhaps £1.5m - £1.6m, which is roughly double the profit made in 2018. If this proves to be the case, then the value of Shire will have improved through 2019...with a higher profit number, perhaps also deserving of a slightly higher rating as the quality of earnings improves.

[yamaha865] 22/12/2019 10:32

We really need some action on the cash pile over the next few months, another buyback or acquisition

Quite an opportunity cost if nothing happens

[rivaldo] 10/12/2019 09:41

Very strange decision from ST. Having held patiently for so long, knowing what the strategy here is, and having tendered at 1290p, he sells the rest much lower at barely above the value of cash and freehold property in the full knowledge that:

- Shire could be disposed of any time soon
- the huge cash pile could be utilised at any point

Both of which would likely given a sudden and dramatic boost to the share price - and would hardly give any time to get back in if you weren't already holding the shares.

I'm very happy to hold for more.

[jaf111] 09/12/2019 19:55

Agreed....very happy to buy more if price falls further....

[cockerhoop] 09/12/2019 18:31

EezyMunny,

I think you are being slightly harsh on poor Simon - he did bring us investment gems such as Naibu and Camkids ;-)

Anyway allowed me to replace some of my tendered shares so I salute him and his logic.

[davidosh] 09/12/2019 18:22

I presume that will be in the printed copy this Thursday as well so it could have a dampening effect for the next week or so...

[eezymunny] 09/12/2019 16:50

ST really is hopeless a lot of the time.

"However, until they have made their acquisition, and delivered valuation upside, I can see the share price discount to NAV persisting". Well fine, but if that's his view why didn't he tender all the shares at 1290p? Gloriously illogical.

Oh and a disposal of Shire, that would likely add useful upside above NAV, could come at any time. Durrrr....

Anybody who takes these tipsters seriously needs their head examining IMVHO.

[penpont] 09/12/2019 15:59

From ST in today's IC:

Taking profits

I have decided to bank my remaining profits on Aim investment company Volvere (VLE:1,175p), having recommended tendering your basic entitlement (41.18 per cent of your holdings) at 1,290p a share earlier this year, so realising an eye-catching 208 per cent premium to the 419p entry level in my 2016 Bargain Shares Portfolio. The gains have also driven a 78.9 per cent portfolio total return, significantly higher than that of the FTSE All-Share (47.2 per cent) and FTSE Aim All-Share (41.5 per cent).

The company is heavily cashed up (net funds of 915p a share) and the shares are also priced on a discount to last reported NAV per share of 1,356p, so there is solid firepower for co-founders, Jonathan and Nick Lander, to finance their next turnaround situation. They are smart investors, which is why Volvere’s book value per share has increased at a compound annual growth rate of 17 per cent since the company listed its shares, at 100p, on Aim in December 2002. However, until they have made their acquisition, and delivered valuation upside, I can see the share price discount to NAV persisting. Bank profits.

[rivaldo] 02/12/2019 13:51

Good to see a tick up after a £58,000 sale of 5k shares. Perhaps an overhang has been cleared.

[rivaldo] 19/11/2019 11:06

Around £120,000 traded today already - this is finally turning into quite a liquid stock!

[markdallara] 19/11/2019 09:28

Typical. I have had a buy at 1160 order in for some weeks now, added a second at 1180 yesterday since I thought 1160 was never going to take. Got both lots now.

[jaf111] 18/11/2019 14:01

And another 5,000 shares sold @ £11.60......maybe the same person?

[rivaldo] 14/11/2019 13:54

It's pretty encouraging given past illiquidity that the market has just accepted a £58,000 sale of shares at 1160p without any problem at all.

I just can't believe that anyone's selling at that level (i.e not much above cash per share), particularly when they could have tendered for 1290p not long ago. They must have a pretty hasty need for cash.

[rivaldo] 10/11/2019 08:21

Good news this morning - Lidl are to accelerate their expansion, opening another 230 stores in the next 3 years:



The article also notes that Aldi are opening another 50 stores a year for the next two years.

[yamaha865] 04/10/2019 08:55

Not sure why there should be any issue with just holding on to Shire. It's a profitable and growing business and it's not as if volvere don't have the cash for other opportunities

[zoolook] 03/10/2019 21:23

The fact they’ve had it on their books so long suggests there’s not much ‘appetite̵7;

[eezymunny] 03/10/2019 15:55

I reckon Shire might fetch £7-12m, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder, it might light someone's fire, or maybe nobody interested at all at a sensible valuation. Don't reckon VLE would sell at the bottom of that range.

[zangdook] 03/10/2019 15:52

If someone came along and made a good offer for Shire and VLE accepted it, they'd then have to find another investment within six months or lose their listing, if I remember the rules right. I wonder what they would do if such an offer came along but no prospects were on the horizon.