Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 20/3/2020 11:27

Fabulous new 11 minute interview with the Commercial Manager at Shire Foods about how the pandemic is positively affecting the company:



Highlights:

- Shire are now a supplier to food retailers of pies, sausage rolls, vegan products etc, having transitioned away from the food service market
- Shire are seeing a "large upturn in sales and demand for these products"
- Shire supply Aldi, Iceland, Morrisons, Lidl, Asda and B&M (via Heron Foods)
- sales are accelerating and are like Christmas sales every day at present (remember, this is usually the seasonally quiet time of year)
- most ingredients are British, so no problems sourcing them
- Shire are working 24 hours per day for 5 days
- he doesn't foresee any staffing problems
- their supermarket clients are seeing loads of new customers now coming in every day and so are building up a new and expanding customer base

[boadicea] 18/3/2020 17:27

In retrospect it might, at first sight, seem a pity that the company didn't hang on to more of its cash in view of the prospective bargains that may be thrown up in some months time. That may turn out to be many months as suppressing the spread with drastic measures is like having a tiger by the tail. When do you let it go? Well, not before a vaccine or antiviral is developed or most of us have had it, whichever comes first, otherwise the rapid progression to herd immunity will resume.

However, I digress. The point that I wished to note is that the total issued share capital was not reduced and the shares remain held in treasury. I assume that they are available for sale subject to a minimum of formalities - possibly shareholder approval? Given the company's record should they not be as good as cash?

As a result, less than 30% of the share issue is currently in circulation.

Extract below -
"If the Tender Offer is implemented in full, this will result in the purchase of up to 1,283,927 Ordinary Shares (approximately 41.18 per cent. of the Existing Ordinary Shares), which will be held in treasury. The issued Ordinary Share capital of the Company (excluding treasury shares) will then be 1,834,182, and the Ordinary Shares held in treasury will be 4,372,892."

Any views?

[yamaha865] 18/3/2020 13:07

Hopefully get a trading update soon....usually there is one in March

[zangdook] 18/3/2020 10:46

All true...still, if I hadn't already disposed of much of the cash I could buy back here today for less than I sold for. I still have around 60% of my holding and if all goes well I'll increase in future.

[rivaldo] 18/3/2020 09:40

The m/cap in the thread header has finally been corrected to £19.4m :o))

Well done ADVFN.....

Understood zangdook. Personally I can see substantial upside here, partially from Shire Foods continuing to progress/thrive in this environment, but also due to the potential for bargains arising at present - any decent-sized acquisition may bring in some excitement and interest given VLE's exceptional track record.

Most importantly the downside here is surely minimal if any given the cash and asset backing, whilst other stocks which might be considered bargains might a few days or weeks later not quite turn out that way.

[eezymunny] 18/3/2020 08:16

Depends on your risk profile zangdook. Your point is understandable but the only thing I'd sell VLE for is gold or perhaps food retailers. If the banks go bust VLE is not much use of course. I guess the banks get bailed again but if not I personally have plenty of gold, toilet roll, canned spam, a dummy and a "told you so" sign.

Be careful out there. This either blows over or the whole world is totally bust (inevitable at some point given central bank idiocy of course).

Owning gold has seemed sensible for a long time to me. Only to be confiscated I expect!

[zangdook] 18/3/2020 05:43

I understand the arguments, but I sold some of my VLE shares to raise cash to buy elsewhere because, even allowing for the potential for appreciation here before the market in general recovers, some stocks have fallen so far that I feel their short- or medium-term potential is greater. For example, what are the odds of each of VLE and RDSB doubling from here within a year or 18 months? I'd like to have some of each. VLE will pick up bargains but it then needs time to turn them around before their value will be reflected in the share price

[deanowls] 18/3/2020 03:06

Can the title of the conversation be changed?

[rivaldo] 17/3/2020 23:32

It does seem crazy that some have been selling today at less than the value of VLE's cash pile alone! Especially when with the entire population eating at home now sales of Shire's pies, sausage rolls etc from the likes of Aldi, Lidl, Morrisons et al are probably benefiting nicely.

To reiterate, the m/cap at 1060p is £19.4m - less than the £19.7m cash at 30/6/19 and which would likely have increased further as at the year end.

I've emailed ADVFN twice about their m/cap for VLE in the Fundamentals section in the thread header post being incorrect, but nothing's happened. Typical.

[papy02] 17/3/2020 15:07

Main risk(*) here is key person risk. I hope the bruvvers are reclusive!

(*) though more a risk to potential upside than risk of downside from current SP!

[eezymunny] 17/3/2020 14:55

You know the market's going to be throwing up opportunities when people are selling VLE for a value less than cash on b/s, and Shire in for free - which is in just about the ONLY sector I can think of that shouldn't be affected Corona :)

I love bear markets...I hope this one absolutely smashes all records..

[boadicea] 06/3/2020 15:45

When the dust clears, which may be some time, there are going to be many 'good' companies that have fallen into administration or similar due to lack of lquid reserves at the start of the crisis. Many may be capable, in sales and trading terms, of a strong bounce back but lack the cash to kick it off. We don't know what the official financing arrangements (government/banks) might be in such cases. Almost certainly there will be many sme's that fall into the finacial cracks in the system and thereby a prospect of a rich hunting ground for VLE to deploy its mainly liquid resources.

The firmness of the VLE share price probably shows that my view is shared by others. The market (=all of us and certainly myself!) with some obvious exceptions (travel companies etc.) is having considerable difficulty in grading the magnitude of the effects as between companies, from the big losers (manufacturers lacking imported components?)to the marginal losers, or possibly marginal or large gainers (on-line education?). How transient will be the effects? Will a rush of investment into circumventory measures prove to be a long term waste of money?

Certainly I see VLE as a firm hold since experience shows that the management is unlikley to make poor decisions in deploying its mountain of cash.

[rivaldo] 06/3/2020 13:55

Worth noting that the cash pile in the above article is understated - the true position re available cash to the Group is £19.7m, since the £2m of loans in Shire Foods are secured against its freehold property.

[rivaldo] 02/3/2020 15:36

Looks like the Shareprophets following are late risers :o))

[spob] 02/3/2020 10:07

yes he knows a lot about spotting fraud

and you can learn a lot from him about how the markets really work

although he does tend to go off on a tangent when doing his podcast (thankfully they are subscription only now)

i'm sure he's insane :)

[spob] 02/3/2020 08:50

Shareprophets doesn't have much of a following then :)

price not moving


tried a dummy buy

couldn't buy any anyway

[rivaldo] 28/2/2020 10:14

Worth remembering that the m/cap here at 1125p is just £20.6m (ADVFN's m/cap in the thread header is incorrect), based on the 1.834m shares in issue.

I assume VLE's net cash position after the latest acquisition will be around £19m-£20m given Shire Food's H2 seasonal bias.

Which values Shire Foods, including its freehold property, at...not a lot.

As an aside, I'd have thought more people will be eating in, some with Shire Foods' meals, rather than going out to restaurants in the current virus panic (and given the recent rotten weather too!).

[zoolook] 25/2/2020 13:40

Good port to be in currently

[rivaldo] 25/2/2020 11:34

Shire client Lidl has opened its 800th UK store and is investing £1.3bn in its store expansion over 2021 and 2022 to reach 1000 stores:



"Lidl’s expansion is matched by continued strong sales growth. The most recent set of Kantar data shows that the supermarket is the fastest-growing supermarket in the UK, with gross sales growing 11.1% year-on-year."