Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[greek islander] 04/10/2018 09:47

Your post was excellently timed Rivaldo.
What a brilliant bit of business. What will be next?

[greenroom78] 04/10/2018 09:36

Nice. £31m for Impetus.

[rivaldo] 04/10/2018 07:31

Impetus are recruiting - this is for their team at the "Jaguar Land Rover site in Coventry". Perhaps JLR are the recently won contract for Impetus:



"Do you pride yourself on your passion for accuracy and strong administration experience? Dedicated and enthusiastic but lacking challenge in your current position? If the answer is YES Impetus Automotive are recruiting and we want to hear from you.

Due to continued success and growth, we are now looking to recruit a Process and Data Coordinator to join our team at the Jaguar Land Rover site in Coventry. This position is offered on a fixed term contract basis until March 2019."

"JLR has committed to become a world leading luxury car manufacturer as one of its strategic aims. The effective management of data plays a critical role in how JLR exercises its ability to exceed customer expectations and drive performance on a global scale.

This role of Process and Data Coordinator is to ensure appropriate and adequate management and maintenance is undertaken throughout the lifecycle of JLR retailer data. The role will encompass activities such as mapping data flows, ensuring data centric processes are followed and standards for data quality are met. Within this role, you will be responsible for...

etc"

[rivaldo] 01/10/2018 12:28

FYI I've now updated the thread header post for Simso's post with his new 1553p per share valuation.

PS : any corrections/improvements welcomed.

[malnu] 01/10/2018 12:01

Looks like a share buy back coming this week...?

[kazoom] 28/9/2018 15:00

FWIW - I was thinking the other day that it might be good to have new thread without the numbers in the title (of course with a link back to all of the excellent content here), but it's not a big issue to be honest.

It's not nearly as annoying as "A stock on a eps of one?"

[rivaldo] 28/9/2018 13:49

No probs - very busy this weekend, but will incorporate simso's post into the thread header asap afterwards.

[zoolook] 28/9/2018 13:15

glaswein

I did mean the title (shame it can’t be changed - maybe worth emailing advf support?) but having simso’s analysis as the summary would bring it up to date

[glawsiain] 28/9/2018 11:24

Hi Riv, I think Zoolook is referring more to the summary, underneath the title. This could be updated with Simso's valuation.

[rivaldo] 28/9/2018 10:59

Hi zoolook. It's impossible to change a thread title I'm afraid.

Is the consensus that I/we should start a new thread just because of the title, or shall we stick with this thread? Next time around I'd start a thread without reference to specific figures and focus on what VLE actually does.

[dsct] 28/9/2018 10:31

Another thanks to simso for the breakdown #2933

I've been playing about with the figures, to try and guestimate the Y/E.

At present we have a share price of 930p based upon the last Y/E EPS of 56.4p and 16.5 P/E.

My assumptions are:
1) 34% uplift between H1/17 and H2/17 being replicated on H1/18 giving a Y/E revenue of £52m
2) 10% PBT margin (perhaps optimistic?). Giving 5.2m OP.
3) 20% tax - £4.2m PAT
4) 15% Non-controlling interest - £3.4m Attributable Profit

Finally giving 92.1p EPS x 16.5 P/E = £15.20 SP

Basically, within a whisker of simso's figure, but worked from a different angle.

[zoolook] 28/9/2018 09:12

Perhaps you could change the thread title to reflect those figures

[rivaldo] 28/9/2018 09:10

Excellent summary Simso, cheers - encouraging to see a 1553p NAV arrived at using reasonably conservative assumptions.

I took the liberty of pasting your summary elsewhere. Hope that's OK.

[eezymunny] 27/9/2018 16:51

Someone who needs 45 quid to buy lollipops?

[melf] 27/9/2018 16:09

Trade reported - 5 shares sold!.....I'm lost. Has anyone got an explanation? Who would sell 5 shares?

[rhomboid] 27/9/2018 13:50

Thx Simso ...I’ve taken the diabolical liberty of sharing your post on Twitter as I wasn’t sure you were on Twitter.

The chief Q for me reamains how long will they retain Impetus..& just how big a beast it becomes before they dispose of it..this could be a source of considerable upside over & above your valuation

[eezymunny] 27/9/2018 13:37

That's quite a good assessment IMO simso.

Hardest bit is of course the Impetus valuation. I'd say a wide range of possibilities could be considered reasonable. Anything from 5-15 x taxed profits? Even at the very miserly bottom of that range Impetus would net to VLE about £12m, giving a VLE valuation of c. £40m. It looks quite hard to lose money here unless business collapses completely. Not likely IMO but you never know...

[simso] 27/9/2018 13:22

An updated view on how I would calculate a valuation based on today's Interims.

1) Impetus: Made £1.9m PBT in the first half 2018, and indeed £1.9m in the second half of 2017. The large contract was in place for both those periods, and now we have news of a new contract. While smaller than the first, it must be material, or why mention it! The new contract starts in September 18, so 3-4 months benefit. Even with no other Organic Growth, I pencil in £4m PBT in FY 2018.

A crucial question is what valuation multiple would you apply / hope for if they sold it? I see from Stocko's front page that the median average current year rating for UK stocks is 13. An argument for lower valuation is simply that "Its in the Automotive Sector" where Dealerships in particular have must lower ratings at the moment. However, to counter this I would say that we are not selling cars, and point to the contractual nature of a significant part of forward revenues. Also the business has doubled in size over three years of ownership...so a strong forward trajectory. On balance I think a market average 13* post tax would be fair, and round it down to 12 for prudence. I assume a Tax rate of 19%. That would value Impetus at £38.9m in total, and £32.3m after the 17% minority. I then deduct another 10% as an assumed Lander Bonus...so £29.1m net.

Shire made £0.6m in 2017, and that included a one-off impairment of assets of £0.2m...so underlying £0.8m. The first half 18 was slightly better than last year. The second half should also benefit from the new Capital spend of £1m. I estimate £1m profit, and put it on a lowly / prudent rating of 5* Post Tax. I add the £2.6m Freehold, deduct minority of 20*, assume 10% Lander Bonus, and my valuation is £4.8m.

I assume nothing for Sira....although perhaps a little harshly as there are signs of life in the Statement. I try to maintain my prudent approach throughout!

We currently have £20.5m Cash/financial instruments, and I estimate this improving to £22m by year end, given my profit estimates above.

If I give no value to Goodwill and Plant and Machinery (£5m+ on Balance Sheet), and take Current Other Assets (mostly receivables), less total provisons and liabilities, that nets out to £1.4m....say round down to £1m after minorities.

This gives me a valuation of exactly £57m, or £15.53 a share.

[texas_caddy] 27/9/2018 11:26

Happy holder here this morning. One of my larger positions now but still looking a very attractive buy.

[zoolook] 27/9/2018 11:18

Graham Neary will comment at some point today: hxxps://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-thur-27-sep-2018-vle-bon-402359/

[rivaldo] 27/9/2018 11:13

Good to see a £19,000 buy at almost 960p just now.

Exactly Greek Islander. Presumably as usual many punters will wait for Simon Thompson or someone else to tip it before they take the plunge.

[greek islander] 27/9/2018 10:41

Looking here at the year by year progress and the inevitability of a rising revenue and profitability this must be one of the best investments around. Someone said it is money in the bank but it is infinitely better than that.

[xajorkith] 27/9/2018 07:56

Another excellent set of results, once again highlighting how cheap these are.

With Impetus generating almost £2m PBT in H1 alone, and with £20m cash on the balance sheet, the mkt cap should be nearer 45-50m imv.

Surely this must move back above £10 soon.

[yamaha865] 27/9/2018 07:24

The results look good in comparison to last year, but is the strong H2 weighting expected this time?

[rivaldo] 27/9/2018 07:20

Interims are out - and they're excellent:



Impetus' PBT is up 25% - and they've just won a second training contract with a different auto company which should continue its growth in years to come, even if not quite at the same turbo-charged rate.

Shire have improved their performance in the seasonally weaker H1 and are trading in line despite certain cost pressures.

And good old Sira is showing signs of life.

Cash is up £2m to £20.4m, and core NAV is up to 675p. The true NAV must be nearer double that without doing the calculations, but that's for later (or someone else!).

Also, some interesting comments from JL re acquisitions and re Brexit, where he notes that VLE may be one of the few beneficiaries, which is intriguing.