Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[melf] 24/1/2018 15:59

A tenner to buy and a 10p spread to boot! Heady days indeed.

[simso] 24/1/2018 15:38

Yes thanks for re-posting that Rivaldo. It is interesting to reflect that the closing price the day before I did that SOTP Valuation (21st Sept 2017) was 750p...so "The Market" has at least some of the way towards agreeing that £13.50-£14 is a fairer valualtion! Hopefully that SOTP Valuation will also continue to rise, and I could certainly envisage Impetus developing at a stonger pace than most assume. It was interesting that they recently announced "An exciting partnership delivering genuine parts sales growth", as they have not trumpeted other deals so far, which hopefully imlies it could be material! I am sure the Bruvva's spend most of their time at Impetus, and it will significently benefit from that.

I do think that the 15% rise in share price since the start of the year three weeks ago has been significantly helped by our inclusion in the Stockopedia "naps" portfolio for 2018. I am sure many Stocko subscribers will directly build a real portfolio to reflect the "Naps", and understandably so, given its stellar record...including a 42% rise in 2017. The whole point of the Naps Portfolio is to hold it for a year without tinkering...so hopefully new shareholders will be with us a while.

The main reason I love this company is that it offers such an "each way bet". If the Economic outlook is benign, then I can imagine the business continuing to improve, particularly Impetus. If Economic conditions worsen, there will be an increasing number of very decent businesses which are struggling for Credit and could come within range for us to buy at a knock-down price. An £18m-£20m warchest and an asute Management with an impeccible record of buying and developing. Happy Days!

[rivaldo] 24/1/2018 15:33

Yamaha, I'd have thought this paragraph from the interims says more about Impetus' prospects going forward than any temporary ups or downs in new car sales, given "the commencement in April of a single large contract to operate a vehicle manufacturer's training centre":

"Changing vehicle technology means that the pace of change in the automotive sector is significant and we think this will present opportunities for Impetus as clients work with us to refine their distribution and after-sales strategies."

[yamaha865] 24/1/2018 15:18

Great job both Rivaldo and Simso on your commentary on this one- it has contributed to me making this my largest position which is going very nicely so far :)

Does anyone have any thoughts on Impetus Automative and whether the slowdown in new car sales could have an impact? Appreciate they are not involved in sales or repairs but could an industry slowdown be an issue?

[rivaldo] 24/1/2018 14:49

No probs glawsiain. I just realised that of course subsequent to Simso's valuation there's been the £3.4m share buyback at 835p of 408,000 shares. Which is looking quite a good move now!

On a quick calculation, that improves VLE's NAV per simso's figures to around 1450p per share - or say 1550p-1600p if you add in any value for Sira Defence, assume growth for Impetus etc.

[glawsiain] 24/1/2018 14:28

Thanks Rivaldo for your response (and by implication, Simso too!)

[dsct] 24/1/2018 13:35

Hit £10.00 (offer) at last !
Been like watching paint dry ! lol (only joking)

Coming up to having held these for 8 years (next month). Was a largish (at the time) buy for me, based upon a lot of other investor's research and much less DYOR and knowledge from me. Not bought or sold any during that time. Taken until earlier this month to 3-bag. Now vying for top slot in my 'folio in regards to largest holding by value.

SP has taken off, more recently :
+100% since 500p in Oct 16
+30% since Sep 17
+10% since Start of this month

Looks like the best buying opportunity (CAGR% wise) was the slight dip March 17 at 510p(?).

As a novice investor, the two main lessons from VLE are:
Run your 'winners' - just because a stock has bagged, doesn't mean it won't again and only sell when story changes.
DYOR - or in my case DMOYOR (Do More Of Your Own Reasearch) :o)

A smaller lesson, is that the volatility of a share price increases dramatically with the quantity of posts on its ADVFN board(s) lol

Apologies for increasing the posting-traffic on this board, but wanted to thank all the posters here for their insights and analysis. GLA for 2018 and beyond.

[boadicea] 24/1/2018 13:34

Will 1000p prove to be a psychological barrier or a psychological springboard?

[rivaldo] 24/1/2018 13:34

Indeed Melf - now around a six-bagger for my original purchases from memory. I bought quite a few more around 200p and 330p.

Glawsiain, the thread header post is out of date as subsequently the interims showed Impetus doing far better than was expected. I'll update the header post after the 2018 results (or perhaps any trading update).

After the interims, Simso produced a "sum of the parts" valuation as follows which gave an NAV of 1,389p per share:

"1. Shire: My profit assumption for H2 is that it will match last year's H2 of £1.02m. We are now past the anniversary of sterling devaluation, so the negative impact on margins has worked through. The re-pricings they have progressively done through H1, and also the fact that sterling in H2 may actually be better than H2 last year, may make the out-turn better. A full year out-turn PBT of £0.78m, I apply a lowly rating of 5* Post Tax Earnings to derive a value of £3.1m.

2. Impetus: I am hoping for at least £3.7m PBT as already explained. I would value this much more highly, and think a market average P/E of 14 times is prudent given the growth and contractual backing for the earnings. Value £41.4m.

3. Perhaps harshly I give no value to Sira.

4. £2.6m of NTAV given that it is mostly freehold property.

That gives a Gross Value of £47.2m, from which I deduct 20% for Minorities and a further 10% for Bruvva's Bonus for the increase in value created....so net net £31.2m. I would expect year end cash to be at least £22.5m, so my total SOTP valuation of the business is £56.6m (£13.89 a share)."

Simso's valuation is nicely prudent, but increases to around 1,500p per share if you assume a reasonable 10% growth rate for Impetus, introduce any value at all for Sira Defence etc.

[hpcg] 24/1/2018 13:25

I have topped up during periods of post earning's drift and the occasional eager seller. Spread has shrunk as well, which tends to mean an eager rather than an opportunistic buyer.

[glawsiain] 24/1/2018 12:53

Is there good reason for the nav of 1061p that is estimated/calculated in the header above to be increased? Or are we approaching fair market valuation?

[melf] 24/1/2018 12:22

Not me Riv - I loaded up between 380p and 460p. I know you were here a long time before me so this must be a nice multi-bagger for you?

[rivaldo] 24/1/2018 11:52

Another £24,000 of purchases in five small lots around 990p from 10.30 onwards, following on from yesterday's buying. One keen purchaser or some posters here topping up?

[rivaldo] 23/1/2018 15:32

Good to see a net £13,000 of purchases today - unusual to see no share price response, so either there's a small supply of shares or there's an order being filled.

Glad you chaps have got the iWeb mess sorted out.

[glawsiain] 23/1/2018 11:10

Thanks longshanks. I checked and you are absolutely right

[longshanks] 23/1/2018 10:03

Just a note to say that iWeb are now allowing VLE purchases once more.

[rivaldo] 18/1/2018 23:07

More impressively, a nice £20,000 purchase at 968p this afternoon. Hopefully bodes well for tomorrow.

[zangdook] 18/1/2018 10:10

Someone isn't a Lloyds-HBOS customer.

[rivaldo] 18/1/2018 09:12

A buy of 5 shares at 970p - someone's keen :o))

[zangdook] 12/1/2018 14:12

I would have hoped the company would take the trouble to talk to Lloyds/Halifax because it's it their interest to have a market in their shares and they ought to be able to persuade Lloyds that VLE is not a PRIIP, or at least find out what's going on so they can respond to enquiries from frustrated shareholders. Also Lloyds are losing a small amount of business in VLE trades and potentially more if people actually leave them.
Broker incompetence is nothing unusual of course and it can be very hard to get them to do anything about it.

[glawsiain] 12/1/2018 13:46

true, but I'm not about to change broker due to one investment being affected. Anyway, if no response comes from volvere, I'll try my broker. It would be a shame to not be able to increase my holding here, should the opportunity arise

[hpcg] 12/1/2018 13:04

glawsiain if you look through the small number of posts this year you can see some of the brokers that do allow buying. I can vouch for Barclays, IG and HL. I don't think the company can do anything about it as in any case a broker is under no obligation to deal in any company or instrument if they choose not to.

[glawsiain] 12/1/2018 12:24

thanks hpcg. Does that mean other companies are affected? Its still in volvere's interest to put pressure on that broker group, I'd have thought.

[hpcg] 12/1/2018 11:56

It's nothing to do with the company; they are clearly not a PRIIP so they aren't going to do anything. It is entirely down to the one broker group that has such a safety first interpretation on the regs as to be absurd.

[glawsiain] 12/1/2018 10:45

Ok, I have written to the company via their website (

I'll let you know if I get any response