Volution Share Discussion Threads

[tara7] 18/11/2009 16:11

On the move up.

[tara7] 18/11/2009 16:11

On the move up.

[greengiant] 18/11/2009 16:02

Took the opportunity today to increase my holding further by 4 x transactions of 75k, 50k, 15k and 15.3k. This now takes my holding in the company to a whopping 2.70%. Which is where I have decided to stay. Now I just sit and wait.

gg

[greengiant] 18/11/2009 09:10

This company is very undervalued, just needs to start to pay down debt.

gg

[greengiant] 18/11/2009 09:08

What people don't realise is that when looking at the comparables, you can estimate the position the company will be in for the second 6 months (ignoring the extended year) of the year.

Looking at Media - I would anticipate that revenue for the second 6 months to deliver an EBITDA of around £2m and FY results of EBITDA of £3.75m. This takes into account limited synergistic cost savings and full 6 month effect of S&C.

I would anticipate events to be around 6 months EBITDA of £300k and FY EBITDA OF £638K (This allows for a further deterioration in the market).

I would anticipate Sports to deliver 2nd have EBITDA of £2.2m. This is wholly consistant with prior years (and looking at H1 performance versus PY you can see on lower sales they delivered a lower operating loss). This would give a full year EBITDA of £2m. Take into consideration that all TS's since H1 have focussed on the excellent performance in Sports and this is easy to understand.

Therefore I would assume:

FY EBITDA £6.4m
Central Costs (£1.5m)
Revised EBITDA £4.9m (vs prior year £3.8m)
Less Amortisation £0.6m
Less Exceptionals £0.5m
Depreciation £0.9m

Gives EBIT of £2.9m

gg

[tara7] 18/11/2009 08:50

We are now only two weeks away from Fan*S year end. Any parts to be sold off will in my view be done on the last day of this month. That would have been planned best part of 6 months ago. Note the football side and the wealth side have bags of defered income, due over the next few years, that alone has real value.

[tara7] 18/11/2009 08:45

Well both agree loan costs are far lower than forecast. Next look up the West End on the web, you will see it is booming as is new york. We have also been told the summer football season was fab. Did you also see football costs have been slashed by Fan last year.?

[greengiant] 18/11/2009 08:38

tara - I have done my research, however, you also need to understand there is still considerable risk - it needs to pay off its Mezz. It is irrelevant when the budget was done, the world has changed significantly in those 12 months and nobody knows how the rest of the business is performing - we know the sports side had a cracking summer.

gg

[tara7] 18/11/2009 08:00

Greengiant good to see you have found out what i have been on about, budget for 6%-8% loan cost, but been paying around 2%. !!! Budget would have been done in the summer of 08

[greengiant] 18/11/2009 07:54

TARA - I agree it needs to pay off the mezz as reuired by October 2010. it is this element that is costing the company dear at around c10%, so if they can pay it off and hedge the remainder then this one should rapidly increase next year.

gg

[tara7] 14/11/2009 13:19

Base rate was 5% when the last company was bought, and the sums £16M for the next few years would have been based on that. It fell within weeks. to .05% !!

[tara7] 14/11/2009 13:10

Look at the cost of debt, only a small bit is costing a lot, the far larger lump is costing just a tad above base.

[soulsauce] 14/11/2009 12:10

Before this goes anywhere it must get rid of most of the debt burden. If they manage to sell one of the lesser companies or hive off the sport side to pay down debt then this is the time to get in.

[tara7] 14/11/2009 12:08

Thanks for your view brando69, any chance you could post up your winners for 2009, [showing us all the date you first posted the stock, like i did.]

[brando69] 14/11/2009 12:00

tara, you've got it wrong big time with NTA.

health warning.

a lot of tara's stocks are pumped and dumped.

[tara7] 14/11/2009 11:22

Yes, take a look at what i did this year, all on here to see from day one. 400%, 500% 600% and 2,300% So yes i do have a track record.

[tara7] 14/11/2009 11:18

This company has, in the past, not come up with the goods. The reason in my view why this share will fly in 2010 is this. First, debt is to be reduced by selling of the football part of the company, second, the west end is booming, and profits are about to roll in .

[egoi] 14/11/2009 11:10

And have any of them ever ten bagged?

Lol!

[tara7] 14/11/2009 09:53

If you look at the turnover for FAN, one can see that to 20 bag on a pe of 15 is a not that far out .

[1stclass] 14/11/2009 08:19

get it right 20bag not 10 :-

[tara7] 14/11/2009 08:15

greengiant, you may like to know Fan are in Tara*s top ten for 2010.They only get on that list if in my view they can 10 bag in two years or less.

[greengiant] 14/11/2009 08:02

Interesting, especially the admission doc dated 02 November



gg

[greengiant] 11/11/2009 06:53

The 85k was a sell. Somebody selling into any buying (There was a 75k buy on PLUS)

gg

[tara7] 10/11/2009 20:18

I see you added 85k today, I am of the view Fan will shine big time, How many firms got a new 16m pound loan this time last year.?