Volex Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2023 16:38

Recent share price has been far from exuberant,
there appear to be an increasing amount of cautious trading updates across the market, but none of us have a crystal ball.

General consensus 6 months ago saw a prolonged recession this year which has not happened. May be that looks different again in another few months.

[worldwidet] 25/4/2023 16:28

"The signs, Esmeralda, the signs!"



exuberance comes before a fall...

[dougmachin] 25/4/2023 15:43

The signs, Esmeralda, the signs!

[worldwidet] 25/4/2023 15:32

The figures reported for the past are unimportant. They are past and already included in the prices. The point is to think about what might happen in the next 6-18 months and how it will affect the company.

The signs point to a deep recession and then you can think about what it will do to Volex's low-margin and highly cyclical business.

Volex, with its OEM business, is heavily exposed to cyclical sectors.

It can get damn ugly in the next 6-18 months.

The equity markets still refuse to enter a recession. The bond markets, where the smart and big money is, have known for a long time where the journey is going and have priced in the recession. Stock markets will follow...

[dr biotech] 25/4/2023 10:45

Last year the bottom seemed to be about 230p - with the "beat" and the lowering of the debt its disappointing to be in the same place. I guess there is no rational explanation - same could be said when it went to 500p.

I remember reading Alan Sugar's autobiography many years ago - he floated Amstrad in the 80s/90s and sold a load of shares when the price rocketed on the back of the tech boom even though trading hadn't improved a great deal, then bought them back after the dot.com crash when the price had cratered even though trading was again similar. Can't beat market sentiment.

Obviously many more examples but that stuck in my head as a then novice investor.

[johndoe23] 25/4/2023 09:07

A slow burn maybe, but the company is in better shape now than when the share price was 320p!

[belluci] 25/4/2023 08:27

The appetite for manufacturing businesses seems to be in bear territory. The US manufacturing index has been dropping. Fear of a recession will keep volex priced down I fear. Maybe a slow burn for the next few years I guess.

[johndoe23] 25/4/2023 08:13

Back in the 230s unbelievable

[valhamos] 21/4/2023 16:56

Thanks, Ijamlon. A good listen - a well articulated explanation of the factors behind what has been achieved and how they continue to drive the business. Their acquisitions have been really successful and good to hear again that the exciting acquisition pipeline is still in place and looking forward to further announcements.

[essentialinvestor] 20/4/2023 18:25

Dave, why I mentioned it may have been unhelpful talking up the pipeline of acquisition opportunities previously.

Now that cash generation has improved and debt has come down from the last statement, it's perhaps a more appropriate time to reference the possibility of acquiring further,
but the market might like to see another 6 months plus where they focus on organic growth.

[disc0dave45] 20/4/2023 18:16

Good point.Possibly the reduction in debt too......however, it's still up on last year and nearly 10x more than 2021.

[essentialinvestor] 20/4/2023 15:43

Hi Dave, appreciate the view.

Would guess it was the cash generation the market liked.

[johndoe23] 20/4/2023 15:31

Didn't expect these to rocket up to 300p but was hoping/expecting a hold above 250-260p. Always seems like a load of sellers here. Patience!

[disc0dave45] 19/4/2023 22:24

EIBeen watching these for a long time now and was surprised it broke below support in late Feb, think that surprised a lot. That said I was equally surprised at the share price reaction on the trading update, truly glad for those holding as I hadn't the balls to enter before the update given the aforementioned decline.......still can't quite get my head around it now tbh as their forecast beat is only about +2.4% on Rev and about +4.7% for op profit. Perhaps it was the growth compared to last year that Mr Market focussed on?.Either way I'm now thinking of a starter position despite the phenomenal rise as pragmatically it's still only back to previous support levels (the bowl) where I initially considered a purchase.

[redartbmud] 19/4/2023 20:26

EI

It isn't mu normal policy to nuy ahead of results but in this case the results weren't tipped to be that good, but I figured that the pundits had got it wrong, and we would see a nice bounce.

Tipsters were quick to mark them up.

red

[mfhmfh] 19/4/2023 17:11

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity raised their target price on power products manufacturer Volex from 380.0p to 400.0p on Wednesday after the group's full-year trading update came in "strong and ahead of expectations"

[essentialinvestor] 19/4/2023 16:25

Red, fwiw I would not have added before yesterday's statement and personally do mind going against negative sentiment.

PS is spot on, messaging arguably could have been better. Hopefully it's better going forward.

My Dad holds a chunk so keep an eye on VLX.

[johndoe23] 19/4/2023 15:57

Disappointing that yesterday's rise hasn't been followed up today. Promised to early doors.

[dougmachin] 19/4/2023 11:49

WWT - What's that T stand for again?

[worldwidet] 19/4/2023 11:26

260p a late easter present to sell

[valhamos] 19/4/2023 09:22

One of the pleasing aspects of the Volex strategy has been the emphasis on market sectors with strong growth characteristics and its ability to foster long-term customer relationships. That I believe is the reason for the strong organic growth we are now seeing in Complex Industrial Technology, Medical as well as Electric Vehicles.

I believe to reach the $1.2bn revenue target we will see more acquisitions in the next couple of years and I guess Complex Industrial Technology would be the focus.

On a P/E of 10 a lot more to play for with the level of growth being demonstrated.

[blusteradjuster] 19/4/2023 08:31

Tesla's Q1 2023 earnings call and Q&A is tonight at 10.30pm BST.

There's a link to the event, streamed free/live to twitter, on Elon Musk's twitter page.



The price of lithium is down over 66% from its ridiculous November 2022 bubble peak.




What with:

- Tesla Shanghai free of China's oppressive COVID restrictions

- Tesla Berlin and Tesla Texas ramping-up production

there should be bright news on Tesla's production prospects at least (let's see what they say about demand - they have cut selling prices, surrendering gross-margin, to stimulate demand).

[redartbmud] 19/4/2023 07:49

Dr B

You aren't the only buyer at elevated prices.
I am a relative latecomer to the party and having bought into the story, I have also purchased shares in the 250p region.
Unfortunatly the general market noise and negative sector sentiment has created downward volutility that appears to me to be unjustifiably overdone.
It is what it is, but I am trying to look beyond that scenario. The continued progress and an eventual return to more normal times should see Vlx as a business that is triving and one that is attractive to the great unwashed, at multiples that significanly exceed those currently seen.

If I have made a blunder, it was to not buy more shares ahead of the results, when I had the opportunity, the finance but sadly talked my self out of it, listening to the negative noise and not looking at the fundamentals. Got as far as getting the live quote!! Doh....

red

[dr biotech] 19/4/2023 07:22

“ VLX shareholders are going to be rewarded nicely for their loyalty, I reckon.”

Whilst yesterday’s news and price rise was welcome, most shareholders who bought within the last couple of years (inc myself) will still be underwater. We’re ahead of expectations, but only back to January’s price. [I did average down a bit at 210 but still average 270] Shows how much of a part sentiment plays.

Thats not having a dig at Paul Scott, I think he’s decent. His comments on debt are salient. In the last presentation they said it might take a while for debt to come down, it seems to have happened much quicker. Let hope we get closer to cannacords target and get an increase in news flow with more regular updates. I did allude to this some time ago.