Volex Share Discussion Threads

[johndoe23] 18/4/2023 15:06

Nice pair of 125k buys earlier

[retsius] 18/4/2023 15:04

Wants to go higher.....
R.

[chessmaster10] 18/4/2023 14:49

That's quite different to what was posted, which quite explicitly stated that investors who use charts are "brain dead".

As somebody who uses charts more than fundamentals, I'm entitled to disagree.

Feel free to block me.

[valhamos] 18/4/2023 14:08

Give it a rest, chessmaster10. The point that igoe104 was making that the 4 or so announcements the company makes each year quickly get lost on this board under a plethora of comments trying to suggest the latest share price or share price movement tells them something about how the company is doing. Today's announcement hopefully puts paid to such notions as far as VLX is concerned.

[ygor705] 18/4/2023 13:27

I've held Volex since they were 80p and they have always been an uncomfortable yet ultimately successful ride for me. The share price always surges too far on good news and over-reacts on bad. I'm not expecting that to change so hold onto your hats!

[chessmaster10] 18/4/2023 11:53

Assuming you invested 8% of your capital at 92p, price now is (let's say) 250p.

So a 270% return, on 8% of your portfolio = 21.6% over 5 years.

Not sure how that beats 15% in one year.

In any case, we're comparing apples with oranges.

What was your total portfolio return in calendar year 2022?

[kalai1] 18/4/2023 11:36

Volex PLC issued a trading update for the 52 weeks ended 2 April 2023 indicating that the Group has enjoyed strong organic growth with revenue and profit ahead of expectations. Revenue is now expected to be at least $710 million, representing an increase of at least 15.5% compared with the prior year. Underlying operating profit is now expected to be at least $66 million, at least 17.4% higher than the prior year, with both revenue and underlying operating profit ahead of market expectations. The balance sheet is also strong and strengthening, net debt is expected to be approximately $76 million down $22 million since the half year and represents a covenant leverage of 1.0x. Valuation is attractive with forward PE ratio at 8.9x and PS ratio at 0.61x both top quartile for the Machinery, Equipment & Compinents market. Main clouds for the investment case are the lack of share price momentum and fragile macro outlook in the year ahead. Nonetheless VLX has a solid track record of delivering growth and profits and price is now very attractive. BUY...

...from WealthOracle

[igoe104] 18/4/2023 11:31

I hold 27 companies. Have held these for 5 years
(Its about 8% of my Portfolio)

I'm full time investor, retired in my late 40s...

[chessmaster10] 18/4/2023 11:23

Define long term.

You think none of those long-term investors use charts to some extent?

What proportion of your total capital is in this share?

[igoe104] 18/4/2023 11:16

Most chartists are momentum traders, and most traders lose over the longterm.

Not many billionaire traders around but lots of billionaire longterm share investors .

I've been in these from 92p, beats your 15% from last year..

[chessmaster10] 18/4/2023 11:08

Why does using charts make you "brain dead"?

How many people do hours of research on fundamentals, and end up losing money because the market disagrees with their analysis?

Many ways to skin the cat.

I made +15% using charts in 2022, when most fundamentals-based strategies resulted in heavy losses. If that makes me brain dead, I'll take it.

Each to their own.

[igoe104] 18/4/2023 09:56

Most investors are brain dead, they make their investment decisions on charts and what others are doing..

[waspfactory] 18/4/2023 09:50

Agree with you steeplejack, it never ceases to amaze me how often the City is surprised by an update, they seem clueless most of the time.

[blackhorse23] 18/4/2023 09:48

Switched to GATC , excellent opportunity

[steeplejack] 18/4/2023 09:36

Its a shocking indictment of current UK investment analysis (or lack of it) that Volex takes the market by such surprise with todays trading update.Share prices seem to float on back of algorithms,charts and everything but fundamental research.

[redartbmud] 18/4/2023 09:27

dd

Sometimes it pays to keep the faith against the herd.
Back in Nov '22
Nat R
"We have built a strong, resilient business, aligned to key market sectors with long-term structural growth characteristics," said executive chairman Nat Rothschild.

"We have shown that we are capable of managing supply chain and inflationary pressures effectively, while simultaneously continuing to win new projects and expand opportunities with existing customers.

"We continue to report strong organic sales growth, building on the momentum generated last year whilst maintaining our margins within our target range and demonstrating our ability to effectively pass through inflationary-driven increases."

Rothschild noted that in June, the company set out an "ambitious" new five-year plan, to grow revenues to $1.2bn by the 2027 financial year.

It would appear that little has changed in the mood music.
The current measures of PE puts the share price on a more than modest rating, and down at the £2 level it was cheap by any measure.
For some reason the share price was trashed, and as Val commented nobody seemed to want it - except for those who kept the faith.
I would hope that the share price will now re-rate to consolidat at least at the £2.50/£2.60 area before kicking onwards and upwards.
The dividend yield is modest, but has shown consistent yoy growth with both the interim and final payments. There is no reason to suppose that this cannot continue, even if bolt-on additions are found the assist the ongoing organic growth that the company expects to achieve.

red

[disc0dave45] 18/4/2023 09:12

Electrifying.....we'll done holders.

[igoe104] 18/4/2023 09:10

Today’s trading update highlights a strong performance in FY23, with revenue and operating profit ahead of market expectations. Volex looks to have exited FY23 in a robust position supported by its diverse growth markets focus and strong customer relationships, built on recognised levels of service and reliability. In common with the broader sector, the Group is seeing signs of supply chain normalisation, but still healthy underlying order positions, and reduced inflationary cost pressures. Pre-IFRS net debt has fallen $22m in H2 taking the covenant leverage to just 1x. On all valuation measures Volex looks attractive with the shares now trading at a c.18 month low. Furthermore, FCF has now turned positive after the prior effects of increased working capital and higher capex in FY22 and H1FY23. The majority of capex is directed to short (<2 years) payback projects that are customer led and focused on capacity expansion against new business. The expected effects on ROCE are not fully reflected in forecasts. We re-iterate our Buy recommendation and TP of 325p

[simmsc] 18/4/2023 09:10

Someone asked about broker notes. Singer is out with a 325p TP (a reiteration). Conservative estimates by their own admission.

[johndoe23] 18/4/2023 08:29

Appears to be a 10k seller, unbelievable

[blackhorse23] 18/4/2023 08:28

Moving to GATC , excellent value

[valhamos] 18/4/2023 08:21

Nat Rothschild, Executive Chairman, said: "I am delighted with the strong organic growth performance delivered by the business during the period. ........I firmly believe....... will continue to drive ongoing outperformance versus our competitors. This means .......that the Group is well positioned as we enter the new financial year."

[owenski] 18/4/2023 08:18

Lot of catching up on the share price to come I would suggest.

Quality company, quality management, quality strategy.

[johndoe23] 18/4/2023 08:16

Anyone selling must be nuts

[igoe104] 18/4/2023 08:15

Some isa and some Sip...

I've not had many good days recently, so I'm going to the make the most of this rare occasion...