Volex Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 01/12/2022 11:03

Nice bowl still

[blusteradjuster] 30/11/2022 17:42

China looking to boost vaccination in the elderly according to The Economist.

Makes sense for them to gradually open up Spring 2023, ride the COVID exit wave, and then live with the virus from Summer 2023 onwards.

[wanttowin] 30/11/2022 14:44

I think it must be John, last update was excellent, so frustrating, It felt like we were off to the races, now is there a top up time coming ?

In just a few days off 12% having touched £3.

It doesn't take much to spook this market in seems.

[johndoe23] 30/11/2022 13:39

Down on China concerns?

[wanttowin] 24/11/2022 15:28

First buys at 300p ...big push required now please.

[igoe104] 23/11/2022 17:43

We just need a nice rise with the Nasdaq in December, which could easily happen. And these should go alot higher then...

[johndoe23] 23/11/2022 15:32

First target break over 300p. Then resistance at 320p which will be tough

[ijamlon] 22/11/2022 09:53

Stealth rally alert. VLX now up 20% this quarter, 2-3 times more than the market. Momentum looks good.

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 15:13

Thanks, just read the same in their AR2022. Pity they don't say what the chuffing covenants are!.

[valhamos] 11/11/2022 14:41

I don't think we have been told what the net debt to EBITDA covenant is. At year end the actual was 1.3 and we were told on the recent investor call that at the half year stage it was under 1.4 - it's worth pointing out that the debt for covenant purposes excludes operating lease liabilities and uses underlying EBITDA. In the annual report it stated that they had carried out sensitivity analysis on cashflow forecast to September 2023 and in a scenario of 15% reduction in revenue (the worst case in recent times) the company still had significant covenant headroom.

[ymaheru] 11/11/2022 14:23

I know they says:
“ We have exercised the accordion feature in our RCF giving debt facilities of $100m”

They and I says they see attractive acquisitions. Multiples are low at present, so I’m sure they do.

So, obviously are looking at using that $100m and I’d guess a lot is on acquisitions.

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 13:57

Re-reading their H1 the increase to net debt from acquisitions might have been $7.5m not $14m....it's not too clear to me as not an accountant.Either way how much headroom are they likely to have at year end?....any broker notes that could help?.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/11/2022 13:38

Aaaah, don't know - not been that close to it for a while, and not particularly tempted now, so haven't done the detailed stuff on something like that.

And I'm not going to - cba... ;-)

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/11/2022 13:18

Mainly working capital movement - the net of the three numbers for inventory, payables and receivables in the cashflow statement. Again...


View from a round a year ago - I haven't followed too closely since then, but net debt was building then - just not my bag...

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 13:11

Thanks hadn't thought of that.So net debt from year end to H1 period end has increased by $22m, with acquisitions contributing the bulk ($14m). Will see about the other $8m?.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/11/2022 13:01

Have a look at the previous set of results, 6 months ago - the full year ones. Most of it is detailed there - taking net debt then to $95m from $27m 12 months before.

The comparisons just published are only for the first half of the year.



Acquisitions costs including deferred (contingent) consideration of previous acquisitions was some $55m - per the cashflow statement.

[igoe104] 11/11/2022 12:59

Interim results presentation...

[sailorsam1] 11/11/2022 12:53

Did the same. Seems to imply working capital around holding much more material to derisk sales

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 12:51

EI
I’ve been trying to tie down what exactly contributed to their $77m increase in net debt. Can obviously get it from their BS but wanted a more specific breakdown. Only got as far as acquisitions circa $7m (from memory, edit Soz it was $14m not $7m) then as you I got distracted!

[essentialinvestor] 11/11/2022 10:42

DD, I intended replying to your post yesterday that around 14 X looks
fairly valued, then US CPI numbers and boom!.

[davebowler] 11/11/2022 08:50

Zeus
Quarterly Electric Vehicles Report

Automotive Services & Technology



November 2022

Plug-in EVs represent one in five new car sales YTD: Battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) accounted for 21.5% of new car registrations in October 2022, down from 23.1% in the prior year, primarily attributable to supply challenges, but up in absolute terms. BEVs registrations increased 23.4% YoY in October, much faster than PHEVs (6.2%). Year to date, BEVs and PHEVs represented 20.7% of UK total new registrations, up from 16.6% in YTD 2021.

Is charging infrastructure growing fast enough? The SMMT claim that public charging infrastructure growth is not on track to meet the UK government’s ambition of 300,000 devices by 2030 (36k as of 31 October 2022). Since Q1 2021, new plug-in vehicle registrations increased c. 9.5x, whereas the number of standard chargers increased c. 7x. The SMMT calculates there has been just one public charging device installed for every 50 new plug-in EV registrations in the nine months to September 2022, albeit improving in Q3 to 38 new EVs per new charge point.

Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) set to be applied to electric vehicles: Press articles suggest that electric cars are to be subject to ‘road tax’ (or VED) for the first time as part of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on 17 November. This is one of the first measures by the UK Government to replace tax revenues lost by the transition to electric vehicles, as mentioned in prior editions of the Zeus EV Quarterly. Tightening fiscal policy could reduce incentives to purchase EVs.

This edition’s quarterly focus is on EV running costs. Using analysis from Zap-Map, we explain how journey costs are still cheaper for EVs, despite recent increases in wholesale electricity costs. Our recurring statistics on EV penetration, public charging infrastructure, residual values, and EV policy are then presented, before introducing a round-up of EV deal flow.

[igoe104] 10/11/2022 14:14

Good opportunity in the EV sector.

The Indian EV market opportunity is estimated to be worth around $206 billion by 2030, and the Government has a clear commitment to electrify the auto sector.

[dr biotech] 10/11/2022 13:11

It also gets a mention the day before in a bargain shares article. May partially explain the rise the day before the results. I didn’t see anything in there to warrant the subsequent drop - perhaps it could also be said there was nothing in there to justify the rise - but we seem to be on track from Aug when the share price was closer to 300 which I feel reflects the true potential.

[dr biotech] 10/11/2022 13:08

Written up as a buy in the IC.



I can DM it to anyone that can’t see it, it doesn’t say a lot but the key part

Not all investor concerns have been allayed, however. Volex’s net debt has almost tripled year-on-year to $117mn and free cash flow has withered to just $100,000 from $3mn a year ago. Cash flow was hit by a $12.5mn increase in inventories to tackle supply chain problems, and a sizable jump in trade receivables, which is worth keeping an eye on.

However, analysts at Stifel said the elevated levels of working capital should be temporary…