Volex Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/6/2013 09:03

Signs of life - current trades of 75,000 exactly, some reported as buys some as sells, but given the timings and the exact total, safe to say they were buys.

Not mega, but better than recently.

I do wish something would happen here...

[c1d] 25/6/2013 08:57

Hi Paulypilot,
My thinking is similar to yours. I once worked for a business where the margins were heavily dependent on the cost of various metals and, as this was impossible to predict with any reliability, we agreed a mechanism with customers where prices would periodically be adjusted to take account of metal price changes (in both directions unfortunately) on our costs.
This section in the Annual Report jumped out at me because it seemed to me that Volex have similar arrangements with some customers.

[paulypilot] 25/6/2013 08:36

Hi c1d,

Thanks for your reply, much appreciated.

I suspect it might be a case of customers being able to work out the costs, and knowing that copper has reduced in price, they will then expect keener prices. But it should be of some benefit to Volex I would imagine, as there are bound to be other contracts at fixed prices which will now become more profitable for VLX with cheaper copper costs.

Cheers, Paul.

[c1d] 25/6/2013 07:43

Paulypilot,
I had a quick look through the Annual Report yesterday and I recall it saying (maybe in the risks section but I can't be sure) that at least some of their contracts include an adjustment mechanism to take account of changes in the copper price. I expect that this would work in both directions so they would,in time, have to pass at least some of the benefit from the fall in the copper price onto customers, but I agree that copper price falls should be v positive for Volex as it is such a large cost for them. I don't remember there being any financial hedges but this could easily be my memory rather than they don't exist.
Didn't spot any nasties in the Annual Report although I went through it pretty fast so am very happy holding at present.

[paulypilot] 24/6/2013 23:16

Hi,

Anyone got any views on the sharp fall in copper price? Surely that must be very positive for Volex, as it's used extensively in electrical cables. I don't know if they have forward contracts in place to hedge the cost though, but even if they do that will only defer the benefit to profits.

Could explain why Volex shares have held up, despite market rout.

Cheers, Paul.

[mreasygoing] 24/6/2013 14:37

Building up like a cork in the bottle. Should see a rise to 120p pretty quick in the coming days.

[brucie5] 24/6/2013 14:07

Looking resilient here?

[freddie ferret] 21/6/2013 15:26

This currently is trading stabily sideways. No sign of it going up and well underpinned on the downside. Nice divi.

[aspers] 21/6/2013 07:01

Double your money from here within the next year....simple :-)

[kmann] 20/6/2013 19:11

Its likely volex have contracts for games console manufacturers, àll have new generation boxes out this year for Xmas. I,d expect most gamers will upgrade AND find new adopters, as the new boxes are more like entertainment sytems. Also the opto division has great growth potential. The new CEO looks a good appointment too.

[volsung] 20/6/2013 16:42

There's a flag pointing to around 77p. In this market I don't want to risk it.

[wylecoyote] 20/6/2013 16:40

It broke the down trend a short while ago...it hasn't bombed with the rest of the market either.

[volsung] 20/6/2013 16:36

Going nowhwere wyle and chart is bearish now

[volsung] 20/6/2013 15:47

Oh well another dream ruined. I'm out. GLA

[naed] 19/6/2013 19:57

Top comment Freddie,

A share that clearly has a minimum support level at £1 would be good to buy at 50p?? Sorry its going North from here but not quickly!

[freddie ferret] 18/6/2013 14:29

I think this is good value and fairly well underpinned. It is just possible that it might fall to 50p on a chartist view however on fundamentals it would then be a blinding buy.

[mreasygoing] 18/6/2013 13:56

The share price certainly seems like its bottoming out. I've bought a few recently, any good news and these will move sharply. Its a case of being in and waiting patiently. The dividend at least means its not dead money. I think holders will be rewarded with a £2 target IMO in the next 18 months.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/6/2013 13:51

His later purchases redeemed him (somewhat) in my view, fwiw. But the original exercise and sale less than two weeks before a profit warning that took them from 140 to sub-100 was taking the micky, imho. He would have had had to sell more to raise the same cash to pay the tax due, and he chose to sell when it seems likely he knew there was bad news to impart. But he'll disagree, and nothing has happened re the FSA or similar, and in the scheme of things it doesn't affect me so I don't care...

In terms of the price - it's boring me to a standstill. Seven months with zip happening is stretching things, and no sign of anything happening in the near future either. The webcast suggested things were stable and current market forecasts were considered OK by the Chairman (for what he knows, considering last year's debacle...)

As I recall the forecast is around $14m, say $10m after tax, current market cap is some $85m (the number of shares is effectively 56m not the 62m quoted by ADVFN, as the outstanding options are well under water at these prices). And a dividend yield of 3% or so.

Not expensive, but needs a reason to move up - something substantive rather than hopeful would be nice.

[wylecoyote] 18/6/2013 11:40

Buywell, you should be careful what you say. I didn't think the directors had sold anything in November, so I went back and had a look. It appears as though one director sold in November, he could have sold at other times prior to that date as they were related to options that he was entitled to, also he had to sell before 31/12/2012 in order to comply with US law and settle any liabilities arising. He has since left and upped his stake to 259,000 shares. So your argument that they sold out because he knew what was happening is week.

[phowdo] 18/6/2013 09:40

98p is at best a weak support line as its been below it numerous times in the past few months. Its range bound between 95-105 with spikes out of that range of +/- 10p.

[buywell2] 18/6/2013 09:31

I have just looked at the long term chart on FT.com as I can't now access charts on advfn and post them

The chart of Volex is ugly

At 98p it sits on a 10 year support line

Any break below and a fall to 50p is possible on bad news

The bottom bollinger band sits at this level today

[buywell2] 18/6/2013 09:24

The CEO sold 477k number of shares Nov 2012 cos he knew what was happening (change the xx to tt )

BOD buying this year is peanuts by comparison

They are doing it to keep their well paid jobs