Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 17/10/2024 10:39

VNI is trying to break out to a new 2+ year high again after a series of higher lows. Foreigners have sold for 5 consecutive sessions after signs of that turning the week before. You do get the feeling that a breakout here would happen if the foreigners would just stop selling, never mind starting buying. As it is, the chart suggests it might well happen anyway.

[aleman] 16/10/2024 10:47

I'd missed Q3 GDP coming in ahead of the 5.5% forecast at a stonking 7.4%! Surely stockmarket earnings will be closing in on 20% growth in 2024 and 2025 and lead to a rerating from it's current 15-20% discount to the historic average. We could do with the gold bubble bursting, though. That's where savings are going at the moment as interest rates fall.



The driving force for foreign investors to re-enter the market between now and 2025 lies in the potential reclassification of Vietnam’s stock market to emerging market status by FTSE. In the short term, the State Securities Commission of Vietnam will remove the requirement for 100 per cent transaction margin for foreign investors starting in November.

“If all goes smoothly, FTSE may announce Vietnam’s reclassification by September 2025. This could attract 16 investment funds with total assets of $90 billion, which track emerging markets,” Thu added.

[aleman] 11/10/2024 08:07

NAV of 615p is not quite back to June's yet. I think that peaked at 626p?

[hpcg] 11/10/2024 07:45

Below is a story on one of the following winds that Vietnam has. As companies move in for the favourable cost, demographic, and not Xi reasons, they power up other parts of the economy too.

[aleman] 10/10/2024 10:15

Discount back over 23% as NAV rises to 612p. VNI is up again today and closing on a 27-month high. It keeps doing this but failing. One day it will burst through. Meanwhile, VOF shares are not keeping up.

[aleman] 09/10/2024 11:25

On track to be granted Emerging Market Status in 2025?

[aleman] 07/10/2024 09:40

Vietnam's CPI fell from 3.45% to 2.63% last month - slightly under expectations. The central bank target is 4-4.5%. There had been forecasts of a rise in base rate of up to 0.5% in H2 but this now looks less likely so the period of interest rates near 20-year lows looks to be likely to extend further. (20-year range is 4 to 15%. It was lowered to the current 4.5% in June 2023.) GDP forecasts for next year are 6-7% (generally being revised up) and stockmarket earnings growth is expected around around 15-20% (generally being revised up) . Ongoing low rates on savings deposits and strong growth would normally be supportive of stockmarkets, which trade at around a 20% discount to their long term p/e ratio despite the strong economic outlook.

VOF trade on a larger discount than the historic norm by around 10-15%. 20% national earnings growth in 2024 and 2025, a normal market rating uplift of 25% and a normal discount to NAV lift of 15% could see VOF more than double in a couple of years and still not be on unreasonably rated. (This could be tempered or enhanced by the exchange rate. Vietnam has been slowly growing its modest trade surplus in recent years)

[aleman] 04/10/2024 08:16

Another step to Emerging Market Status.

[aleman] 04/10/2024 07:29

GDP beating forecasts?

[kenmitch] 01/10/2024 09:00

What so many Trusts and most commentators and investors don’t seem to notice is that often neither tender offers nor buybacks prove effective in reducing discounts to NAV. At least tender offers give investors taking up the offer real cash. Buybacks don’t and often multiple £millions wasted on buybacks only reduce NAV by a penny or two.

[aleman] 01/10/2024 07:43

VNI is trying for new 2+ year high as it nears its close. Less than 0.2% off and edging up. It marginally went above it an hour ago.

[aleman] 27/9/2024 09:34

VNH has just reached a new all-time high. But it's discount is only 2% while ours has been around 23% lately. Do we think it's fair to say tender offers shrink discounts now?

[aleman] 26/9/2024 08:10

NAV nicely back above 600p yesterday and VNI is extremely close to a new 29-month high as it approaches today's close.

Edit - dipped in last hour to close just +0.3%.

[31337 c0d3r] 26/9/2024 07:30

I have VNAM on my monitor which closed up +10.5% this morning - always a good sign.

[aleman] 25/9/2024 09:27

VNI closed about 1% shy of a 29-month high. VOF's price is about 13% shy of its 29-month high thanks to its abnormally high discount.

[aleman] 20/9/2024 16:22

Foreign selling today, after 4 days of buying, but significant net foreign buying over the full week.

[aleman] 18/9/2024 15:43

I think the tide might be turning as I've previously suggested. Foreigners were net buyers for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. It would take a significant reversal in the next two days for the week to end negative.

VOF got a good plug in last week's Investors Chronicle article on Vietnamese trusts.



Also last week, VOF was retained in IC's top 50 Funds list for 2024 after being included in 2023.

[aleman] 18/9/2024 10:49

Economic forecasts seem to be improving after Vietnamese inflation came in lower than target last month. Inflation was expected to hold steady at 4.4% but dipped to 3.5%, versus a target of 4.0-4.5%. In the last 6 months, CPI has risen at an annualised rate of only 2.1%. The prospects of a dovish central bank in months ahead are tending to see a stronger outlook in the latest economic forecasts. This should help the property market recover from a couple of years of doldrums, besides the general economic uplift of GDP growth, expected to be pushing 7% in 2025. Gold has been on a very strong run and savings rates are likely to fall so a switch to lowly-priced shares and and property in the early stages of recovery could see VOF in a sweet spot in the next year. Falling western interest rates might reduce foreign selling of Vietnamese equities that have plagued the stockmarket market since the 2022 bond crisis.



Domestic capital outflows are becoming less acute and should ease further, given better stability in the local gold market, lower U.S. rates, and manageable domestic inflation pressure, according to MUFG.

Improving inflation and interest rate expectations and improving economic confidence is seeing a flood of corporate bond issuance which looks like being the final recovery stage of the property bond crisis that started in 2022.

[amt] 16/9/2024 21:17

Well if the market goes up and it comes good in the next year or two I shall celebrate but I am much less bullish than most of the posters here.
I think there are better options elsewhere but I will keep my small holding, best to spread the risk.

[kenmitch] 16/9/2024 17:11

My final post on this as it’s not worth wasting time with ill informed posters.

There was an 11 month bear market in Vietnam which started at the all time Vietnam Index peak around 1500 in January 2022 and ended in November 2022 when their market bottomed around 960. I stayed invested during that 40% fall but posted on Mike Walters site on the Investment Trust threads that it looked too early to buy while those falls were occurring. It was fluke timing admittedly, but I topped up both VOF and VNH right athe bottom in Nov 2022 and posted that buy opportunity at the time.

Since then their market has been in a slowish uptrend and is now at 1240 and about 25% above that Nov 2022 buy opportunity. There is of course a plus and minus case for investing in Vietnam now as there is with every market and every share we invest in. So sensible posts putting the current bear case for Vietnam are very welcome.

My preferred tactic for years has been to buy the big dips e.g like at the start of the recovery from the banking crisis heavy falls, and then again with the big overdone Brexit falls that were quickly reveersed, and as the markets recovered after the covid falls and again during the temporary Liz Truss chaos crash. That tactic often works.

[shaker45] 16/9/2024 17:03

Amt you should be trying to understand the future and not living in the past.

[amt] 16/9/2024 16:21

Exactly there is political risk and its a lot of risk. That for me explains why when all the economic indicators look so good the market has disappointed and is where it was 3 years ago.
That's not ill informed rubbish, it's factual
What is not factual is to give the impression that thr Vietnam stock market has done well in the last 3 years
You can give a distorted view by describing when you happened to buy Kenmitch when the market was low and so you might have done OK but that's hardly a good analysis of the situation.
Interesting how when the facts don't suit somebodies analysis they resort to commenting about the poster in a negative way rather than discussing the facts.

[aleman] 16/9/2024 14:35

VNI is on a forward P/E of 11.3 @1239, with earnings predicted at the upper end of 15-20% growth in 2024 and then 15-20% growth in 2025. That puts the 2025 P/E under 10. The historic trailing average figure is generally quoted around 14.5-15. A reversion to the mean could see the VNI rise 50% in less than 2 years. If it did, I'd expect NAV here to slightly outperform, as it reversed previously underperforming property and unlisted investment exposures. Then we might also see the discount to NAV of 24% shrink to a more normal 10% or so. It's quite possible a reversion to the mean of all parameters, on strongly rising earnings and improving sentiment, would lead to a 75-80% rise in VOF shares in under two years.

I'm not saying this will happen. It's not a forecast. I'm just asking someone to suggest another foreign investment trust where there could be such large gains based on current strong earnings forecasts and reversions to historic means that might come if the forecasts were hit?

I grant there is political risk. If there wasn't, VNI would probably be on a higher rating with the historic and future growth profile it has had and seems likely to have.

[shaker45] 16/9/2024 13:34

Ignore amt.very negative on vietnam. Read the recent Questor column on vietnam to see a better informed view

[kenmitch] 16/9/2024 12:56

amt

Your reply makes my point even clearer. It’s GOOD to read quality posts giving the negative case. There’s no point tsking notice of people who post ill informed rubbish, and unfortunately that applies to your posts here.

VOF has proved a disappointment this year with flat performance but that’s partly because the discount is so wide.

VOF has tripled since 2016 and doubled from the covid lows. It is up 15% from when I posted and added on the November 2022 buy opportunity.

VNH has done much better snd is on a small discount thanks to that. VNH is up 22% this year, and up 70% since I bought and posted at the Nov 2022 low, and has tripled since covid low and multibagged 25 times since 2009.