Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 23/5/2024 10:45

A rise of over 1% today puts the Vietnamese stockmarket just a few points off a 25-month high and means the discount here has probably nudged over 20% again.

[aleman] 21/5/2024 10:32

I thought we'd have been holding above 600p by now but the £ is up by 3% v the Dong over the last month. I suppose NAV of 594p is pretty good if you make allowance for that.

[spangle93] 21/5/2024 10:22

Citywire's new IT manager ratings award VOF managers an A



Very impressive, as only 51 managers make the grade for their 3 year performance, and to get an A you have to be in the top 30-60% of this elite

The only thing that takes the shine off is that VNH managers got a AAA rating for being in the top 10% of the short list

[aleman] 20/5/2024 07:45

It was a weak April stockmarket performance but the market has since completely bounced back on digesting a good reporting season. The outlook seems to be confirming that the recovery is turning out stronger than predicted. (Will VOF's property bias help, after hindering for a couple of years?)

Looking ahead, we anticipate significant improvement as Vietnam’s corporate earnings outlook turns upward, a trend that started in late 2023 and has continued into 2024. We have revised our earnings forecast upward from 10-15% to 15-20% for 2024 and also 2025. The recovery of property launches is expected to boost pre-sales and enhance the profitability outlook for real estate developers. This improvement should also translate into better asset quality for banks over the long term. In terms of valuation, Vietnam remains attractive with a market trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 11.1x, which remains at a 20% discount compared to ASEAN peers. Considering the potential for robust compound earnings growth over the next two years, we believe the Vietnam market presents an attractive opportunity for investors considering allocating capital beyond other emerging and regional markets.

The stockmarket is up again and on the cusp of a 25-month high today and should see NAV push through 600p when reported tomorrow.

[aleman] 16/5/2024 09:54

VN Index +2% in two days. Now only about 2% off 2-year highs. VOF discount seems to be starting to close again at around 17%.

[amt] 16/5/2024 08:16

Bought back in at Veil though not Vof, things have settled down. Only 3.5% higher than when I sold so not much damage. I am much more cautious than before and treat this as a high risk market.

[livewireplus] 14/5/2024 06:33

This rising Asian star is primed for growthhttps://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/diyinvesting/article-13240083/Vietnam-primed-growth-postcard-fund-manager-Asias-rising-investment-star.html

[milesy] 11/5/2024 14:24

My sense is Vietnam is and will continue to gain a sizeable benefit from globals adopting a China +1 manufacturing model (or even a complete relocation from China depending on risk model). Likewise India...



Needs a long term view (10+yrs) though to see through the expected gyrations

[bitgold] 10/5/2024 20:01

Got into this trust a few years ago as i reckon Vietnam is heading towards being an economic powerhouse. Can't believe the high discount, but will continue buying while it exists.

[aleman] 10/5/2024 08:22

I'm not sure how this ongoing gold bubble will affect stockmarkets but the Vietnamese gold price keeps hitting new highs helped by low interest rates on Vietnamese savings deposits. The Vietnamese will spend more if they feel their gold savings are rising rapidly in value - but bubbles usually go pop at some point. The gold price in Vietnam is around $2970 per ounce versus about $2390 in the global markets. The government holds a monopoly on gold shops and is trying to release more gold onto the market to bring the price down through central auctions of (small retail) gold bars.

[aleman] 09/5/2024 07:46

HCMC property starting to follow in Hanoi's footsteps. This could mean that GDP forecasts prove conservative?

[aleman] 07/5/2024 08:09

The Vietnamese stockmarket looks set for its 5th consecutive rise since the Labour day holidays finished, after rising 1.7% On Monday. Volume was high and foreigners were net buyers for a change. Has the tide of foreign selling finally turned?

Edit - closed +0.54%.

[aleman] 02/5/2024 12:15

There we go. Friday's NAV up a bit as expected. Today's market also closed up, at a two week high and despite foreign selling. (When will that reverse?) I think Vietnam economic conditions continue to be set up for a bull market so I hope to see the discount shrink to less than 10% in months ahead as NAV continues to rise. I'm open to accusations of excess optimism ....


Foreign selling might reverse by September when a possible announcement from FTSE Russell might see an upgrade from Frontier To Emerging Market status to occur in 2025, hopefully with MSCI and Dow Jones not far behind. Perhaps more importantly, local investors make up 90%+ of market trading and they are reading numerous local articles like this:




Near record low savings deposit rates saw a net cash withdrawal (of about $1.3bn equivalent) from banks in January after 25 months of consecutive net deposits. Will this trend continue and where will the money get reinvested? (The Vietnamese stockmarket had a good month in January but the property market also showed signs of picking up in Q1. If withdrawn savings goes into both property and the stockmarket, VOF's high property exposure might bring a bit of a double whammy effect and lead to some slight outperformance, after underperfoming a little in the last year or two.)

[aleman] 30/4/2024 14:06

So Friday's NAV will be reported Thursday, then?

[amt] 29/4/2024 17:34

Thanks Aleman some interesting articles on that website

[aleman] 29/4/2024 14:38

Sorry. Here - it was less than 10% for a while in early 2021, spiking briefly to around 4%. (Something like 450p v 470p somewhere around January 21st.)

h ttp://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/I161/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-ord-$001

[amt] 29/4/2024 12:21

The market only rise .38% on Friday by the way so I think 19% is accurate

[amt] 29/4/2024 12:20

You didn't send the link to the discount history. I don't ever recall the discount being at 15% since I first invested 5 or 6 years ago. Some IT can trade at a premium but those are the ones invested in quality markets rather than a very risky one where transparency is poor like Vietnam.
If the marker gets Emerging market status that would help

[aleman] 29/4/2024 10:17

That's on Thursday's NAV, reported Friday. The market rose on Friday which should see a rise in NAV reportedtoday. (That's if they report it today. It's Labour Day holiday which lasts all week in Vietnam, I think, so Friday's likely rise might not get reported until next Monday.)

Discount history can be found here. -20% or more only tends to occur in bear markets. Nearer 15% is more typical and less than that in bull markets. Recent economic numbers suggest we should be moving more toward a bull market, the the Vietnam stock index has not quite conviced yet but locals have been buying in increasing volume as foreign institutions sell. This has been going on for months. The market should move up when foreigners start stop selling and/or start buying again.

Edit - wrong link see my next post.

[amt] 29/4/2024 09:57

After this mornings fall the discount at 467p is 19%.
That's at the low end of the discount over the last few years. I remember it being 22% and around 25% for a longtime

[aleman] 29/4/2024 08:14

It's been edging up again. With Friday's market rise and this morning's small dip in the share price, the discount might have gone over 20% again, rather more than the historic average of around 15%.



Economy booming again thanks to near record low interest rates?



Total revenue of the top five platforms, including Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada, Tiki and Sendo, reached more than VND71 trillion ($2.79 billion), an increase of 79% over the same period last year.

According to a recent report by Metric, more than 766 million items were sold on these platforms in the first quarter, up 83%...


...The report pointed out that Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City took the lead in revenue and volume, accounting for 70%. However, e-commerce is no longer the playground of sellers in major cities but is spreading to localities.