Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[kallistos] 21/12/2020 09:03

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fd.

21 December 2020

London, UK, 21 December 2020

Edison issues review on VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF)

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF) has benefited from its differentiated mix of listed and private investments during a volatile year for global stock markets. The authorities' strong response to the COVID-19 pandemic has meant the human impact on Vietnam has been limited, and the main stock market index is up 11.3% year-to-date (to 16 December) as foreign investors have begun to return. However, VOF's NAV total return is up 21.3% over the same period (all in GBP), thanks to the greater stability of its private equity portfolio as well as positive performance from listed holdings, including its largest position in steelmaker Hoa Phat Group, which is benefiting from government stimulus focused on infrastructure spending. The VOF team says that Vietnam - a rare oasis of GDP growth in the economic desert of 2020 - is set fair to be the next 'Asian tiger'.

A bounce in VOF's share price following positive COVID-19 vaccine news in early November has seen its discount to NAV tighten to a 10-year low of 10.2%. However, there is potential for it to narrow further if investor optimism is maintained.

[amt] 21/12/2020 08:49

Big rise in Vietnam stock market this morning. Nearly 20% gain this month so far,momentum gathering.

[andyj] 21/12/2020 01:04

Fortunately the Vietnamese have natural immunity! When the rest of the world has been vaccinated, borders will reopen and tourism will return and skyrocket! The sand is a wonderful place for ones head.

[spangle93] 19/12/2020 14:09

Hydrogen Economy "From my armchair less than 9000km away, I am happy holding both Vn ITs."

Aren't there 3 - VOF, VEIL and VNH?

[amt] 17/12/2020 13:38

Yes, very bullish outlook for Vietnam and hopefully our trust has a great portfolio to thrive on recovery.

[digitaria] 17/12/2020 10:49

Monthly factsheet for November published at

hxxps://vof.vinacapital.com/monthly-factsheets/

[amt] 15/12/2020 14:18

Andy. It's fair enough to point out the negatives but to pluck out the 2007 high point and use that as a basis to describe the return suggests to me you have a bias against this investment for some reason. Anyway it would still be over 30% return and if you take the low point it is 800%.
So I think we can agree its been a remarkably good investment.

[andyj] 15/12/2020 13:43

Amt I will say it yet again, Vietnam has tremendous potential long term. However, there have been plenty of posts listing primarily the positives and these need balancing. There ARE risks and our greatest fear here is that we are yet to experience an outbreak like the rest of the world. This is not a reason to sell, but it is a great unknown and a serious risk to the country here and people need to be aware of it. Hydrogen E I know you are also based here and I respect your opinion. The price hit 300 in 2007 before falling briefly to the lowest price of 50 in 2008. Basing returns on those since 2008 is acceptable, basing returns since 2007, is disappointing IMO, given the exponential growth here. Shaker, finally, thank you!

[shaker44] 15/12/2020 13:01

Best not to confuse Andy with facts. He has made his mind up. Now filtered as no useful contributions to this board, sadly

[amt] 15/12/2020 12:57

Andy I don't know why you took the huff when I pointed out your judgement has been wrong and if I had followed your thoughts I would have missed a big gain. I am quite happy to read your posts but at the moment take a different view.
You need to remember that you will know a lot more about Vietnam than I do but you have to look at in the context of the rest of the World which in general is doing very very badly.
So if you are a UK investor facing a catastrophic economic situation plus a possible large fall in the pound then where do I put my money.
Cash sterling is unsafe.
As I pointed out the other day I never thought that Vietnam would be a relatively safe place to invest.
Share prices are cheap let alone all the other benefits I mentioned.
You say the share price is up 20% in 14 years.
I don't know if that's true, perhaps its like comparing shares priced to the top of the Internet bubble.
However over ten years the average return per year is a very good 15% or 100 quid is now worth 365 quid.
Remember there is still about a 15% discount.

[hydrogen economy] 15/12/2020 12:42

794% in 12 years, 19% CAGR isn't so bad.

It's easy to pick start dates to suit an argument but a more useful view from Morningstar -

% YTD, 1 Month 6 Months, 1Yr 3Yr 5Yr 10Y
.............................-----Annualized------
23.34 12.96 22.62 25.01 10.95 23.20 13.83

Plenty of ITs ETFs and funds have done better but that's a decent performance. I hold VOF and VEIL for the long term potential and for diversification, they are less correlated with US Europe and Dev Asia markets. It is expected to be one of the highest growth countries this year and next with plenty of structural factors supporting that.

Tourism is important but not dominant, local tourists cannot travel abroad and are taking more domestic trips. I was quarantined for 14 days (done considerately) but now nearly everyone is free to go to Bars restaurants etc. which along with so few cases and deaths feels like a pretty good trade-off.

From my armchair less than 9000km away, I am happy holding both Vn ITs.

[andyj] 15/12/2020 12:22

It is utterly pointless you reading anything I write as you are apparently incapable of understanding it Mr Shaker, let alone forming a coherent argument. You keep dreaming and keep those rose tinted spectacles safely on!

[shaker44] 15/12/2020 11:56

Hahaha. Some of us are closer than you think Andy. And any dummy can pick a point in time to play down a rise. Some of us have more than doubled our VOF investment in a much shorter period of timr. And enjoyed a significant rise since you advised against a few months back. The ftse was far higher many years ago but who cares? Totally irrelevant today

[andyj] 15/12/2020 11:55

Although debating with people unable to understand that others may have differing opinions is depressingly familiar, here for the record are the summary of my posts here:In Nov 2019 I sold my holding at 3.40 having lost confidence following the Ba Huan debacle and being unnerved by the continuation preferring to pay a high dividend rather than reinvest.In February 2020 I warned that the virus was a serious threat to SE Asian economies.In April 2020 I posted regular updates on the apparent control the authorities had and said in several posts that an opportunity to buy could be forthcoming. I did not buy as my business interests here are more closely aligned with the economy than VOFs and the risk reward ratio of an incestuous investment was unappealing.In August 2020 after a recovery to 330, I indeed cautioned that I would not be buying at that level. At every point I reiterated the Vietnamese economy has tremendous long term growth potential. I would not be here otherwise. Since August it has risen further. So you can pick and choose your timeframe, but until you realise paper profits or losses you cannot claim to have been right or wrong.

[andyj] 15/12/2020 11:00

Hahaha. The massive rise of 20% in 14 years? I will leave it to you armchair experts 9000km away to count your faraway chickens.Good luck and goodbye all.

[amt] 15/12/2020 10:28

Andgj Yes of course there are risks but to put those into context you have to compare some of the risks to what is happening in the rest of the world.
Tourism will return to normal once a high proportion of the population have been vaccinated. That is the same everywhere.
The risk of a serious outbreak will go away again with vaccines.
Your judgement on the fund has been wrong so far and you missed out on a huge increase in nav both short term and longterm.

[shaker44] 15/12/2020 10:13

Lucky to have an expert on so many things-- including the VOF share price - warning us all when the share price was far lower. I for one will ignore

[andyj] 15/12/2020 09:30

FWIW Dung is pronounced similar to Youm and Phuc similar to Fooc. I agree with a lot of the reasons for potential here, but there are caveats. 1. There is no sign of tourism returning in the foreseeable future. Vietnam is in a way a victim of its success in coping so well with the virus. It now cannot risk undoing all of the hard work by reopening the borders. Unemployment is rising, as is the non payment of bad debts and the surge in violent crime continues. 2. As stated before, you are not investing in the Vietnamese economy, you are investing in companies chosen by VOF. A rise in one does not guarantee a rise in the other. 3. So far the authorities have contained the outbreaks, but it remains to be seen if that can continue. A widespread outbreak would have a devastating impact on the country. Before those of you in the West lament or or praise why Vietnam has been more successful than your country, there is one crucial difference. Here, all contacts of a positive case are forcibly incarcerated for however long the authorities deem necessary. That and that alone, is the difference.

[lageraemia] 14/12/2020 13:16

I heard that the chap running the Korean Opportunities Fund is Sum Yung Guy

[johnwig] 14/12/2020 13:02

amt. Hmm... So we have a Mr Phuc and a Mr Dung involved in all this! Be careful that you don't let the cat out of the bag and attract unwelcome attention from the ADVFN trolls. They will run riot when they read that press release.

I've now got some quite large positions in VOF and VEIL and we don't want to be fighting off thick trolls who revel especially in a fresh bit of Dung. Let's keep all this to ourselves shall we? LOL LOL

[amt] 14/12/2020 07:22

Strange the discount on Vof is approx 15% vs 8% on Veil.
I wonder with very few funds already invested in Vietnam if these can go to a lower discount.

[amt] 11/12/2020 11:44

Oh yes and Liz Truss is there today tying up loose ends to a trade deal with virtually zero tariffs with UK. Follows on from the EU trade deal signed a few weeks ago.
The most comprehensive trade deal with any developing country.

[amt] 11/12/2020 08:40

Discount 15%.
Should do well if pound falls Brexit debacle.
Vietnam economy growing strongly despite Pandemic which has been the best controlled of any country other than a few islands.
Politically stable.
On the verge of being classified as emerging markets rather than Frontier, so I understand.
Young population of entrepreneurs and extremely hard working and very nice people
Pe ratio much lower than most countries.
Steadily rising non volatile stock market.
Biden likely to be non confrontational.
Manufacturing moving there from China
Gdp per capita a fraction of W economies so much growth to come in the next decade
Buying its own shares to reduce the discount.
Oil price recovering
Downside tourism has been non existent this year but let's hope it bounces back next year but will depend on vaccines.
DYOR