Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 06/2/2020 09:59

Schools in Vietnam now closed for a further week.

[woracle] 06/2/2020 07:29

Its worrying that some in here worry about liquidity of assets ala Woodford. This is an investment trust. We could have a deluge of sellers but VOF still wouldn't need to liquidate any assets.

[1tcm1] 05/2/2020 20:04

Woodford has nothing whatsoever to do with VOF. So what “facts” are you talking about?

[tournesol] 05/2/2020 18:52

Johnwig

Do you feel better after that ill-tempered outburst?

Have you ever considered checking your facts before you sound off?

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 17:52

Cronovirus outlook will hopefully be clearer in a week or so.
Singapore cases beginning to rise, however reported numbers outside of China
remain thankfully very low. Next week to 10 days crucial would think.

[tournesol] 05/2/2020 17:22

Shaker

Presumably a move into PE will make it more difficult to value the underlying assets?

And presumably also more difficult for VOF to sell them if they perform badly. Thoughts of Woodford's various trusts/funds come readily to mind.

[shaker44] 05/2/2020 17:12

I hadn't read the vof monthly write ups for a while or I would have known they are disaffected with the market index and moving steadily into private equity deals. (Note to self: keep up!).
This feels like a good move. They have had a good run since I bought a few years back but a poor 2019 and I feel encouraged by their changed strategy

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 16:45

There are also frontier funds to spread country specific risk as most will be aware.

[johnwig] 05/2/2020 16:40

I was talking to a Czech guy in the States last weekend. He'd been helping with his construction skills on projects mainly in the Far East but in the last few years specifically in Viet-Nam. He echoed exactly what Andy is saying, that the country has a glut of empty housing projects. He put it down to the ease of raising funds from the Government without too many questions asked.

Since he was going back there today he wasn't willing to talk much about the corruption but talked a lot about the 'China problem' and their imperialistic ways in Viet-Nam. He'd also worked a lot in China and thought that in the longer term the economic graph would rise more steeply in Viet-Nam because of their innate energy, but on a very different scale of course.

He was bemused that I was invested (in a very small way) in both VEIL and VOF but thought that with patience I would be rewarded. I'm sticking in there because that is my style anyway. The Coronavirus problem will likely affect the country (as many others) but in all probability and with luck it will be short-term.

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 15:35

Andy, many thanks for detailed rep!y, much appreciated.

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 12:23

Vof or veil? Any views appreciated, thanks.

[shaker44] 05/2/2020 08:32

Why do you expect the change up to emerging??

[amt] 05/2/2020 08:06

It's a matter of patience. This market is incredibly cheap so once sentiment changes then the rewards will be massive. The key will be when this changes from a frontier to an emerging market sometime later this year most likely.

[cfro] 04/2/2020 09:32

What are we to expect here now? A string of profit warnings or little to no damage to Vietnamese companies?

The economic impact of the coronavirus to the Chinese economy will be huge. Maybe they will do a massive stimulus to boost growth.

[andyj] 11/12/2019 10:06

I am not sure when they were referring to when they say 'previously it took two days to travel between Hanoi and HCMC'. Presumably before the invention of the airplane! I sold all my direct holdings in Vietnamese funds in October, for reasons given previously here. I would potentially buy them back if the market overreacts with pessimism.

[shaker44] 04/12/2019 02:25

The key question is what will cause a bounce? Or is their corruption constrained economy going to flounder further..

[cordwainer] 03/12/2019 22:55

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-03/vietnam-stocks-get-cheaper-but-there-aren-t-many-to-trade?srnd=markets-vp

- vietnam index is world's most oversold among major markets
- market valuation below 5 year average and cheapest in a year

[cordwainer] 28/11/2019 15:28

Almost 3 months ago i chose VOF over VEIL only because the monthly fact sheets are more informative with commentary.
As a side note, I gather that sustainability problems need to be addressed more urgently than the average SE Asian country in order to avoid the economy becoming a victim of its own success, namely plastic waste, pollution, deforestation impacting on health, resources, and even tourism. My overall impression just from googling and surfing the other day.

[speedsgh] 21/11/2019 12:38

FWIW the follwoing is from HFEL's Annual Financial Report released earlier this week...



Our visit to Vietnam was the highlight of the trip as we could witness for ourselves the growth and potential of this remarkable country. The political system is stable, gross domestic product ('GDP') growth is strong at around 7% per annum, demographics are favourable and its many deep water ports support a strong export led economy.

Some investors question the accuracy of the GDP growth rate, but many companies are growing at around 30-40% per annum which supports the official figures.

The Vietnamese have achieved the transition from one of the poorest countries in the world in the 1980s to one achieving a very fast growth rate per capita similar to China and India. This remarkable turn round has been achieved by adopting the China model of opening up the economy to foreign direct investment, internal market reforms, infrastructure development, strong export growth and adopting an education system geared to maths and science producing a work force suitable for the modern technological world.

Vietnam is still classed as a frontier market and has limits on foreign ownership so buying into the market often requires foreign investors to buy from fellow foreigners at a large premium to the underlying stock price. For this reason, we have invested in Vietnam via a listed closed-end fund, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, which sells at a substantial discount to the underlying stock prices. The fund invests in hospitals, schools, banks, food companies and an airline, Vietjet, the leading airline in Vietnam. The growth in this company is staggering. It is a low-cost airline and meets the needs of an increasingly mobile community. Previously it took two days and cost US$150 to travel from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City. With Vietjet it still costs US$150 but takes just two hours. We also visited property developments and companies in the consumer space. The rise in middle class consumption is easy to see...

[red ninja] 21/11/2019 12:12

The investment manager is buying, but not even that can raise the share price.

[shaker44] 01/11/2019 12:05

Useful post. Thanks