Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[hydrogen economy] 03/3/2020 08:14

To date VN has been more effective in controlling spread of virus than many countries, but the effects on tourism and manufacturing links with China, Korea etc are having an impact.

VOF Issued a release on 25th Feb. A Good discussion of impact on key sectors, more negative than Gov estimates of impact on GDP. Officially F1 is still on in April but hard to see it happening.

"We think the above-mentioned estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on Vietnam's 2020 GDP growth are too optimistic, and expect a -1.5%pts reduction in 2020 GDP growth (and possibly more) if the government does not take sufficient steps to at least partially offset the drag on the economy from COVID-19"


hxxps://vinacapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/COVID-19-Vietnam-Impact-25-FEB-2020.pdf

VNH issued an RNS today

hxxps://m.marketscreener.com/VIETNAM-HOLDING-LIMITED-55751942/news/VietNam-Impact-of-Coronavirus-COVID-19-30098296/

[shaker44] 02/3/2020 02:24

Check out worldometers. Vietnam seems benign -just now at least.

[cfro] 01/3/2020 22:30

If i may ask: are the number of infections increasing still in Vietnam or decreasing?

[andyj] 25/2/2020 06:19

The VNI crept below 900 today. I think the market is worrying about how long the virus will impact on tourism, flights and entertainment. FDI is a concern as is an outbreak happening here. I think there is a greater balance between risk and reward now with VOF. There is risk of further downside, but the improvement in China is easing fears. I struggle to see a reason for it to reach new heights, but it is hard to see it falling below 250 in the absence of a serious outbreak. Thus about 20% either way, with long term momentum to the upside. I would not deter anyone from buying now, but only on a basis which allows one to add should there be further weakness. Ideally the time to buy will be when an outbreak occurs here, but that may not happen and from a personal viewpoint, I hope it doesn't!

[essentialinvestor] 24/2/2020 17:35

Andy, guessing some of the mark downs today are assuming future adverse
news on the virus, although for wider markets today is unlikely to be a low point imv.

[essentialinvestor] 24/2/2020 16:30

Had a few today and VEIL.

[cordwainer] 24/2/2020 16:28

^ thanks for the insights

[andyj] 24/2/2020 11:59

One must wonder what price VOF will be if, or perhaps when, the virus comes here. For the present, the authorities are excelling in preventative measures. Schools and universities remain closed and might remain closed for another month. Several times a day they message us and broadcast via loudspeakers to the entire population, reminding us to take care. On the downside, high spending Asian tourists are a rarity and the entertainment centres are close to deserted. Most of our tourists here are Koreans or Chinese. Or were.

[andyj] 24/2/2020 07:07

VNI down heavily today, threatening the 900 support level it first broke through in 2017.

[andyj] 14/2/2020 14:19

Link here https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/education/20200214/ho-chi-minh-city-extends-covid19-school-break-through-february/52998.html

[andyj] 14/2/2020 14:17

Just to let you know...HCMC has tonight announced 2600 cases are in forced quarantine and schools etc etc will be closed until at least March.

[essentialinvestor] 11/2/2020 18:06

Added another small amount today and VEIL.

[andyj] 11/2/2020 15:37

VNH spread is wider and they are more illiquid unfortunately. The panic is beginning to ease slightly here. Most of our virus cases have been in the far north provinces and as yet, there is no sign of it becoming an outbreak. Famous last words I know!

[essentialinvestor] 11/2/2020 13:56

Andy, VNH look to have a lot to prove. They underperformed again in January.
Appreciate early days in its new guise.

[skyship] 09/2/2020 15:20

Added to my Monitor, but will wait awhile yet until things become a little clearer...

[essentialinvestor] 09/2/2020 14:51

Bought a very small amount last week, might add a few lower, depending on price.

[andyj] 08/2/2020 06:14

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20200208/vietnam-faces-loss-up-to-77-billion-in-tourism-due-to-china-s-coronavirus-state-media/52900.htmlThe economic impact of the virus on tourism here. And we have one of the lowest numbers of cases in the region...so far.

[andyj] 07/2/2020 14:17

Of the three Vietnamese funds, I have a slight preference for the rarely mentioned VNH. There is some overlap between the holdings, but they are IMO more likely to benefit from the rising middle classes. On the downside there is no dividend and the charges are expensive at 2.88%. Even so, worth considering, although not in the current climate.

[essentialinvestor] 07/2/2020 12:52

On investment in unquoated companies, you can make outsized returns,
however the quality of decision making is absolutely key.
Arguably more so than running a listed equity book. Mistakes tend to be magnified -
and the reverse applies.

[essentialinvestor] 07/2/2020 12:48

Andy, no reported cases in Indonesia!.

Next week will be key in terms of discovering if we are facing major outbreaks in other countries,
or just sparodic cases. Hopefully the later.

[andyj] 07/2/2020 10:40

Singapore has raised the alert to Orange, the same as SARS, after several cases of h2h local transmission.https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/three-more-confirmed-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-singaporeVietnam continues to prepare. D1 the city centre of Saigon has been noticeably much quieter and everywhere temperature checks are in place and face masks are worn. Every morning loudspeakers announce the importance of hygiene....and using mouthwash. For the moment we have remarkably few cases here. That could change.

[shaker44] 07/2/2020 00:46

Each of us have our own investment preferences and personally, in a market/country/economy like Vietnam, I am happy for VoF boots on the ground to use their contacts and skillset to add a mix of pe to their portfolio.

[essentialinvestor] 06/2/2020 23:10

The points you raise are valid. Can unquoted assets be more difficult to value?, Yes. And potentially more difficult to sell, Yes.

[essentialinvestor] 06/2/2020 18:51

Some of the frontier markets looked set for a nice 2020 and then ...

The big uncertainty is whether cases outside of China mushroom.
So far they have thankfully remained very low, think we may need
another 2 weeks approx for this to become clearer.

[tournesol] 06/2/2020 18:28

Some rather curmudgeonly and myopic reaction to my prior comment.

I wasn't suggesting any involvement of Woodford, or any problems like the OEIC's needing to fund redemptions.

The simple point I was making was that investments in quoted securities are easy to value and easy to exit.

Investments in unquoted securities (aka private equity) are difficult to value and can be prohibitively difficult to sell.

I referenced Woodford merely as an example of someone investing in illiquid/unquoted securities and then finding themselves unable to exit from them in a timely and orderly manner.

If VOF are shifting over to private equity and away from quoted securities, I will have to reconsider their inclusion in my portfolio.