Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[martindjzz] 14/4/2020 10:02

Andy, I too am appreciative. I have been holding VOF since 2016 and whilst I culled plenty of other holdings in Feb and March, VOF was one of several where I added to my position.

[ashbox] 12/4/2020 18:51

Yes, thanks for the updates Andy. Always read them with interest.

[robsy2] 12/4/2020 12:23

Likewise . I read your ‘ man in nam’ posts with great interest. The Vietnamese are an impressive bunch, on the side at the mo but ready to get back in.
Best

[kenmitch] 12/4/2020 10:30

Hi Andy

I also find your updates very useful, so please keep doing them.

I switched from VOF to VNH a few months ago as a bit concerned at VOF increasing unlisted Companies. But since switching VOF has done better.

So perhaps wrong to be concerned about that VOF tactic, with my decision too influenced by Woodford shambles? After all as with quoted shares there is unlisted quality and unlisted rubbish, and Woodford was a genius at finding the rubbish!!

[tournesol] 12/4/2020 08:57

Hi Andy

well there is at least one person here reading your reports and finding them very informative too.

I appreciate and am grateful for you taking time and trouble to keep the rest of us in the loop.

I visited VN for the first time a few years ago and was very impressed by the energy, grit and work ethic of the people. That was why I invested here. I'm presently 100% in cash and waiting for the right time to re-enter the market, so your reports are very helpful.


Thank you.

T

[andyj] 12/4/2020 08:32

Not sure anyone is still reading these updates, but anyway if anyone is...We are now approaching the end (Wednesday) of our enforced social distancing period and due to the hard work of the authorities (as listed below) new cases have fallen to a trickle, with no new cases in Saigon for over a week. During this period the government has agreed to pump money into the economy and Vietnam has signed a free trade deal with Europe. They might extend the social distancing period, but as yet there is no evidence of community spread. This is a position that the rest of the world will envy and I doubt that it is widely known or trusted by the west yet. My opinion is that restrictions will be lifted gradually and with the borders completely closed the economy could well be the first to fully resume in the region if not the world. I suspect that after the rallies over the last weeks the markets will take profits or head lower, possibly much lower as they realise how difficult it is to get rid of the virus. And I suspect the VNI will track lower in sympathy. However, Vietnam could find itself in a very good position to take businesses from across the region, as the factsheet from VOF points out. I suspect this combination will offer an excellent opportunity to buy in here at a current 20% discount. VEIL who's companies I prefer are at a 10% discount. Preparing to buy...

[andyj] 05/4/2020 10:31

And more. There have been several cases recently that authorities were unable trace the source of. As a result we are five days into a fifteen day lockdown and from what I can see...no one is moving. The aim is to flush out any cases and so far so good...http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/VN-has-no-new-COVID19-infections-for-first-time-in-a-month/20204/39557.vgp

[andyj] 28/3/2020 14:46

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-certain-covid-19-cases-will-not-rise-to-1-000-4075849.htmlEncouraging news.

[andyj] 27/3/2020 16:01

This is how thorough their contact tracing and information disclosure is, well worth reading:https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200327/at-least-twelve-covid19-patients-linked-to-buddha-bar-in-ho-chi-minh-city/53712.htmlEI you are absolutely right. The hot, dry season is reaching the peak here, cloudless skies, 37C, barbecues in the garden. Usually at this time of the year the streets are liberally peppered with barely clothed beauties, but sadly they are absent this year, or worse still...wearing home made hazmat suits.

[essentialinvestor] 27/3/2020 15:53

Andy, you would not want to be in the UK right now!.

[andyj] 27/3/2020 15:51

Remember Vietnam has been fighting this since January when schools were closed. The public continues to be texted daily with information and advice. Every shop insists on you using hand sanitizer and face masks or you are not allowed inside, in fact now you can be arrested for not wearing one. Etc, etc. In the ten new cases today http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/Ten-more-COVID19-infection-cases-confirmed-total-rises-to-163/20203/39419.vgpmost were quarantined on arrival. The virus has impacted the economy, which grew by 3.82%. The question is how soon can it recover and that of course depends on how bad things get. The great unanswerable question, but I will keep updating.

[cfro] 27/3/2020 10:21

Hi,

I'm convinced there must be more cases in the country than are counted. Let's put it this way, if the figure remains this low and doesn't go much higher then they will be getting off very, very lightly!

[andyj] 27/3/2020 09:01

Hi cfro. Many valid questions and many of those answerable only by time.People here too have been questioning the validity of the small numbers of cases, but I have reason to trust them. Several people that are vague contacts of mine have tested positive after having been asymptomatic but ruthlessly hunted through contact tracing, including cctv. Their details were duly posted shortly afterwards on the government Twitter feed and soon after their contacts were swept away into quarantine camps! All major cities are now practicing social distancing, with all entertainment facilities closed to lessen the impact of the suspected outbreak. The fear of being imprisoned in an army run quarantine camp is an incredibly good deterrent to those wanting to still go out! I am not buying yet, I will give it another week to see the scale of the outbreak, if there is one.

[rambutan2] 23/3/2020 21:17

andyj, thanks for your on-the-spot reports. Very appreciated.

[essentialinvestor] 23/3/2020 20:24

The same applies to so much atm though?.

In the UK we are not even testing NHS workers who report flu like symptoms,
they just self-isolate.

UK testing is not even scratching the bare surface.

[cfro] 23/3/2020 13:18

122 cases with no deaths then, so far..

However, can these figures be trusted?

Secondly, how many people would go get tested if they thought they had the virus?

If the figures are true, can the country survive in isolation to the rest of the world economically for any length of time?

What if there are many more cases of the virus already in the country that are not known about or the number of people infected increases exponentially anyway?

So many questions, and so much uncertainty still.

[dickbush] 23/3/2020 10:42

The reports above are very helpful. Please keep them coming. I've started buying.

All markets getting hammered by Wall St and ignoring domestic situations. Likely to continue, but several countries in the Far East seem to be on top of the contamination and, no doubt, are ready to step on future outbreaks. I don't know individual companies in this area. So, down about 40% from its peak and selling at near a 30% discount to NAV seems like a bargain to me, something to lock away for better times.

[robsy2] 23/3/2020 07:15

Thanks a lot for these updates. Very helpful.
Keep us posted

[andyj] 23/3/2020 00:34

An update from here in Ho Chi Minh City.The zero tolerance tactics employed by the authorities since January have been exceptional and deserve much more publicity than they have. Their contact tracing has been ruthless and effective and the recent spike in numbers is wholly attributable to foreigners bringing in the virus. Most of whom had not left quarantine. A few slipped through the net and an outbreak remains possible. With the borders now closed, the next fortnight will tell us whether we do or not.The mood here is calm and resolute, no panic buying, no lockdowns and shopping centres remain open, but quiet. The country is now holding its breath. IF those that slipped through the net have not caused a new outbreak, then it is possible that Vietnam will be virus free.Economically it has suffered like everywhere else, but if they declare Vietnam safe then there will be a celebratory surge of spending and holidaying and with no one able to leave, all of the money will remain here. What the virus has done is unite the people behind the government in a way I have not seen before.If that happens this fund will be an absolute bargain. I will update in the coming days.

[hydrogen economy] 08/3/2020 14:26

Vietnam was doing well but a number of cases (9+) announced over last couple of days, all linked to a flight from London on 29th Feb, one passenger was infected (possible in Italy). All passengers followed up and tested, several foreign tourists on the flight infected.

Ironic when Vn has a border with China and many Chinese and Korean workers (at factories and infrastructure projects) that London is the source. Govt now reviewing visa requirements which were relaxed for UK and Europe a few years ago.

Hard to see first Hanoi F1 going ahead, (especially with the Italian teams involved) Vn spent a lot of money on preparation, it will be a tough decision to have to take.

Seems like markets globally are in a nervous mood, VOF not immune.

[eel tamer] 04/3/2020 08:26

*love lost NOT live list!

[eel tamer] 04/3/2020 08:25

I live in Hanoi. Have done for five years. There was an outbreak in Vinh Phuc, just north of Hanoi brought by workers who did training in Wuhan. The Vietnamese govt acted quickly and locked down the area in quarantine. 16 people were infected. ALL 16 have recovered and been discharged. There have been no new cases since 13 February. There was a smaller outbreak in the South. Also dealt with. These are official government figures and some don't trust the govt. but my feeling is if there was an outbreak they would find it impossible to hide for long. Schools are still closed and people are wary but it seems to have been contained and defeated for now. That is not to say that new infections cannot happen. There is a lot of investment here from Japan and South Korea, two of the hotspots in Asia. There is no live list for the Chinese in Vietnam so traffic is minimal. This is a bargain price for VOF.

[amt] 03/3/2020 08:32

25% discount to nav seems over the top