Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[shaker44] 21/7/2020 15:06

So what isn't true??? Please be more clear!

[andyj] 21/7/2020 14:52

Not quite true. No community transmission for a couple of months now. All cases since have been quarantined on arrival. After a mandatory two weeks, they home isolate and are checked by officials randomly. Please check facts!

[shaker44] 21/7/2020 08:35

Only 12, all returners in quarantine. Very very very low risk in Vietnam. Less than 400 cases in total and no deaths

[cfro] 21/7/2020 08:15

Infection cases still rising here.

[royaloak] 17/7/2020 12:44

I bought in here after seeing Michael Portillo's Asian railways, I was very impressed with what I saw. Looking at the comments on here you guys have much more expertise about the country than I have. I would be interested to hear your views on the currency also, as I expect the British £ to be at risk because of the situation we are now in, many thanks in anticipation.

[andyj] 13/7/2020 06:12

I can think of worse places to be trapped! The key is how VOF investments are affected by the absence of tourists. Local consumption has recovered somewhat but IMO nowhere near the levels seen in January. Take a look at the link below for the damage being done to consumers spending ability. Longer term, Vietnam could recover more quickly than our neighbour's, but the risks currently outweigh the rewards.

[shaker44] 12/7/2020 04:03

I have a friend who lives in Thailand who 'escaped' to Da Nang in February to avoid annual smokey season in Chiang Mai. Now he is still trapped in Da Nang he thinks until September! No way in to Thailand. But Vietnam is far less dependent on tourism than Thailand.
I think the share price may drift but as a long term holder I am happy to stay invested.
Congratulations to VN government for their tight effective covid management. And I assume exports and local consumption is picking up again now.

[andyj] 12/7/2020 03:30

Just an update from here. The share price remains fairly static and hovering around where it was before the virus became a pandemic. Whilst life in Vietnam has returned to almost normal with shopping centres, restaurants and leisure businesses busy again, wander into a tourist area and you see a near ghost town and the impact is spreading outwards from those businesses directly impacted like airports, hotels and airlines to restaurant chains, taxis and the service industry. https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200712/vietnam-says-31-million-workers-impacted-by-pandemic-risk-of-rising-unemployment/55544.htmlThere are no plans yet to allow tourists in without quarantine and with few wanting to spend two weeks locked in an army camp, the immediate future is worryingly grim. And that's without the virus returning!My view remains that longer term Vietnam is a fantastic investment, but in the short term the downside risks are mounting. I would not buy at this price.

[shaker44] 10/7/2020 09:10

I was thinking more of businesses exiting HK seeking local safe havens which are business friendly. Unlike Thailand for example

[steve73] 10/7/2020 08:54

Chinese funds have had a pretty good month whilst VN funds have stagnated.

My guess it that China has been seen to respond well (aggressively) to CV 2nd wave threats, whereas VN has still not had need to put such aggressive measures into place So the question are they able to respond has not yet been asked or answered.

bwtfdik...

[shaker44] 10/7/2020 08:44

Any thoughts on whether Hong Kong situation is positive or negative for Vietnam. Or neutral...

[hydrogen economy] 22/6/2020 17:21

Cases are returning Vietnamese in quarantine. 67 days since last community transmission.

According to the steering committee, Việt Nam has controlled the disease, but there remains a high risk of the virus breaking out again, in view of the complicated pandemic situation in other countries.

The committee requires disease prevention and control forces to stay vigilant to deal with possible new situations.

People are advised to continue following prevention measures.

[cfro] 19/6/2020 17:55

14 new infection cases in last two days.

Has the country got a good enough fire break while the rest of the world burns?

[boystown] 07/6/2020 21:15

Tipped in the MoS:

The shift towards manufacturing in Asian countries beyond China is likely to continue to boost Vietnamese economic growth and the share price of the VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, said the Mail on Sunday's Midas column.

Geopolitical frictions, the Covid-19 pandemic and higher labour costs in China all favoured continued growth in Vietnam.

Yes, emerging markets always had an additional level of risk, but thanks to breakneck growth since the turn of the century, the country also has a fast growing middle class.

"Most experts believe that, even if Vietnam’s GDP growth is constrained his year, the long-term outlook is sound," the tipster said.

The fund, which is run by a former Prudential director, Andy Ho, has a track record of success when it comes to investing in companies with long-term potential.

In many cases, Ho invests in companies when they are in private hands, profiting from when they are either sold or listed on the local stockmarket exchange.

And the pandemic is throwing up opportunities as some business owners opt to sell to more experience outfits with deeper pockets.

"Today the group is in talks with a number of firms in areas such as healthcare, education, food and drink and the manufacture of recyclable products – sectors that are likely to grow, almost regardless of the macro-economic climate," Midas added.

"Investing in emerging markets is never risk-free but the Vietnam Opportunity Fund has proved its worth over the years and should continue to deliver, as the country expands and develops. At £3.32, the shares are a long-term buy. And the dividend is an attractive bonus."

[cordwainer] 04/6/2020 12:44

i mean neither the relative total return past performance nor the sector allocations were enough to convince me either way. On second thoughts, I had some hope the private equity portion of VOF might make sense given a limited listed market.

[digitaria] 04/6/2020 10:59

VOF also has a respectable dividend and a superior track record, long-term.

[cordwainer] 03/6/2020 21:04

@Cousin Jack, see my post 938, reason I chose VOF over VEIL last September was depth of monthly report.

[kenmitch] 02/6/2020 17:56

I’ve removed this post as content posted by mistake and irrelevant to VOF.

[martindjzz] 27/5/2020 09:00

I’ve been in VOF since 2016 and the discount has typically been in the high teens. I feel very optimistic that NAV will grow and the discount will narrow to around 15%.

[amt] 25/5/2020 07:25

Why is VOF at 25% discount. Vietnam stock market seems to be gaining momentum in recent days. Looks a good bet vs China.

[shaker44] 22/5/2020 06:05

Afterthought: considering VEIL as an alternative to adding more VOF. Thoughts?

[shaker44] 22/5/2020 05:44

Looks a good recovery play. Business friendly. Oversold. Panasonic moving some manufacturing to Vietnam from Thailand. Apple from China. High visibility moves likely to be emulated imo.
Alternative views welcome!

[andyj] 15/5/2020 00:50

No need to be alarmed by the recent jump in infections, they are repatriated Vietnamese quarantined on arrival.