Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 02/8/2022 17:20

Out of interest what is the allegation being made?

[my retirement fund] 02/8/2022 16:53

Christ just seen it

[ldrcvm] 02/8/2022 16:43

Unemon on twitter is basically accusing VCP of fraud. He is not stupid imo.

[essentialinvestor] 02/8/2022 16:15

For anyone interested in this general sector, Headlam has been a very nice
buy in consumer downturns through multiple cycles - price may get below £2.50,
possibly lower depending on wider markets.

Unlike VCP it's a flooring distributor.

[spectoacc] 02/8/2022 16:11

Golly they got that badly wrong - unless holders think it's going to go from £3 to £28 in the next 2 years?

[mysteronz] 02/8/2022 16:06

Thanks drk1 it works

[drk1] 02/8/2022 16:05

Not sure if it will work, but for those who are interested, link to AF's analysis here.................

[mysteronz] 02/8/2022 15:32

If the shares remain at this price I expect a share buy back to be put in place.

Topped up myself, not interested in short term movements thinking of this business in five years time.

Macro has worsened since the analysis conducted by Alta Fox but always worth a read over. Far more sensible bull/bear points raised in that document that the discourse on the VCP board on down days by the usual few.

[castleford tiger] 02/8/2022 15:27

which company have we overpaid for?
As the deals came in we never seemed to pay much more than 5 or 6x earnings.
the last big one


The total consideration, taking into account working capital movements and cash generation since 29 November is approximately EUR164 million (GBP139m

paid in cash
tiger

[essentialinvestor] 02/8/2022 15:03

mrf, it's worked a treat for Kerry Group as well over the years,
but yes you are highly reliant on the CEO/CF wider BOD making quality decisions
on acquisitions.

[spectoacc] 02/8/2022 14:39

Agreed @EI, most co's built by acqn have sticky moments eventually - brilliant whilst it works, buying co's at PE 8 when your shares are rated at PE 20. But integration, goodwill impairment, management control seems to do for most of them at some point.

WPP another that arguably made a success of it. SFOR not!

[my retirement fund] 02/8/2022 14:37

It acquisitive strategies tend to result in overpaying for companies in turn results in making equity worthless.

[drk1] 02/8/2022 14:35

my retirement fund - In no way would I be bottom fishing! Fact is that at some point, those 3.46% of shares out on loan have to be bought back to close (and as we've all seen on the way down, 3.46% can have one hell of an impact on the SP!). Let's see what the next couple of weeks brings and whether Wilding will respond post results.

[essentialinvestor] 02/8/2022 14:26

Albert Fisher was not suspicious, I'm not suggesting anything of that nature here just to clarify. More difficult wider business conditions can sometimes expose a highly
acquisitive strategy as that model is highly dependent on the quality of the companies
bought. It can be difficult to execute excellently.

Halma and RTO have excelled in this area, all be it that RTO went through a difficult
few years around the GFC and required a reset under new management.

[castleford tiger] 02/8/2022 14:24

how much was spent buying these companies?

Could they unload 1 or 2 big ones?
tiger

[spectoacc] 02/8/2022 14:19

I remember Polly Peck! That very rare thing, a FTSE100 co that goes to zero (most fall out of the FTSE first, eg Northern Rock).

But seem to recall it was dodgy payments to co's allegedly linked to Mr Nadir? Plus over-expansion etc. But no indication VCP's been up to any dodgy accounting.

[essentialinvestor] 02/8/2022 14:18

Most here will be too young to remember the highly acquisitive companies of the 1980's, anyone remember Albert Fisher?.

[bart1066] 02/8/2022 14:15

Classic Polly Peck..... for those old enough to remember.
I wonder what covenants are in place for the debt. Investors will not be happy with any of the 150m being spend on £8 vcp shares.....why not borrow 150m flush some down the toilet and pay a dividend?

[bennodean] 02/8/2022 14:15

Am I right in saying Wilding is/was something big in the City? He knows the game. Move when he does imvho.

[my retirement fund] 02/8/2022 14:14

Fair play, I think you'd have to be pretty bonkers to be bottom fishing, not even looking oversold on RSI despite shedding another 25% in a matter of days.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[drk1] 02/8/2022 14:06

my retirement fund - my positions here are and have been very fluid to date. That said, along with everyone not involved in the recent short orgy, I'm down on recent trades. Will however be taking up new positions soon as I get a whiff of any hedgies closing (or news of course). Wilding will have to act.

[castleford tiger] 02/8/2022 13:53

had a dabble at 310p
tiger

[spectoacc] 02/8/2022 13:41

Share price should be concerning to any holder - somehow the debts when "profits" the same seem to matter less when eg £10. But start to look very worrying at £3. Same co, same financials, but market saying a very different outlook.

[my retirement fund] 02/8/2022 13:28

Well I guess by verge I don't mean next week but £750m debt and loss making, £350m market cap dwarfs that, how is this going to remain solvent?

Drk1, you've been long since £6.00 and lost 50%, you need to see 100% gain to to break even right?

[drk1] 02/8/2022 13:02

It's most defintiely not on the verge of insolvency (crazy talk), but this is one hell of a wake up call for management who'd better be working on a consolidation plan as we speak!