Versarien Share Discussion Threads

[markyboy5] 18/12/2019 21:47

London Victoria is "at a standstill" because of a "major signal failure"
Time to install new

[club sandwich] 18/12/2019 21:29

Watching bulls fall out is by far the best entertainment...

[luckyorange] 18/12/2019 21:10

No he wasn't Scrutable he asked nay implored all to filter/ ignore and do whatever it took to bring the board back to something near sensible, YOU ignored that advice even though the warnings were there for the bans many many times.

You were complicit in your demise from the black in that respect. They don't answer anything and if you have not learned that by now you have learned nothing. Say the same thing time after time after time without a rational argument to the contrary.

It was your choice to buy the blue as it has been with the detractors whose sole intention has been to destroy any semblance of a reasonable discussion board, most have moved away from advfn now , leave 'em to it!

[cullion] 18/12/2019 20:00

That's disappointing Grabster, but thanks for the response.

[grabster] 18/12/2019 19:43

I agree with Scrutable's post 86861. The sample percentages he mentions are not important; the key thing is that, with so many prospects in play, it becomes ridiculous for detractors to dismiss every one of them as totally worthless. That attitude might be believable with some company that is a one-trick-pony with everything dependent on one prospect, but Versarien has a whole fieldful of runners, all of them still in the race. So many that it doesn't actually matter if a few of them fall at one of the fences and come to nothing. The idea that every one of them will come to nothing is just plain silly. We need only one or two of the eighty-plus prospects to come good - and I confidently expect dozens of them to do so. I am not the slightest bit worried about detractors attempting to take down Versarien, or to rugby tackle its ceo - they are an irrelevance and can safely be filtered. They are like kiddies swinging fists at someone who can smilingly hold them off with a hand on top of the kid's head

[forestfred] 18/12/2019 19:36

Scrutable

Sir.

That’s the Best posts I have seen for many a month backed up by many years of life experience and investment wisdom .

Thank you .
Great respect .
A great contribution.
Ff

[alchemy] 18/12/2019 18:39

Overall top post.I think,of the ratio of the diameter of the hopper at the top to the diameter of the hopper's exit at its bottom. The nearer a true cylinder the better. (Also success of things through the hopper feeds the hopper!).'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''I'm thinking more the European tunnel rather than TFL but we're it to be both! And if it were both multiply those plus others that follow.

[scrutable] 18/12/2019 18:36

Anyone bothering to read my last post with a desire to learn constructively from it would know that the day-to-day share price movement of a pre-commercial company has very little to do with its real prospects and very largely to do with speculation, manipulation, and external, political and economic sentiment, as anyone can see this week, as sentiment sloshes too and fro like waves of sea water, leaving bullish and bearish tendencies unresolved.

These determine the direction and weight of money which more exactly drive the share price.

[club sandwich] 18/12/2019 18:19

Scrutable - all very elegant and well-explained. So where goes the fact that VRS announce a collab with Airbus and the share price goes DOWN fit into your little theory? Clearly there is a catastrophic lack of confidence in Ricketts - unsurprising given the endless bullish talk entirely unsupported by actual signed deals.

[bbmsionlypostafter] 18/12/2019 18:09

That's truly desperate stuff ic0gcds00.

[scrutable] 18/12/2019 18:08

Your patience please for some basic philosophical rethinking, which follows my previous post.

Bayesian probability suggests assessing the individual probability of any event, amongst many, one at a time, then adding the total. This works in forecasting, especially as soon as any initiative concludes: ie fails or succeeds, which helps in calibrating the others.

It is OBVIOUSLY not acceptable to give zero probability to any of the Big Five, or the next forty in the VRS pipeline of collaborations since not even the greatest pessimist can justify an accusation that every one of these faces a dead end and can never succeed.
That would be silly.

There is just too much scientific knowledge about graphene, too many brilliant minds committed, and too much investment globally, TO BE CERTAIN that there is nothing of value there.

As an example, I personally now rate AECOM as 90% there. After six months of satisfactory results from testing, acceptance by Aecom of the case for their use of graphene is nearing 100%. This must still be multiplied by the possibility of a snag developing in TFL's thinking or situation. Naysayers can reduce our confidence to 50% or even 10% but NOT TO ZERO.

The same thinking must ascribe a value to the Chinese negotiations. Again detractors and those suspicious of China could justify suggesting that Chinese will not follow through with real contracts but they cannot suggest that business with China IS FOR CREDIBLE REASONS IMPOSSIBLE.

Ditto thinking re the Mast textile potential (say 60% - clearly less than Aecom until there is further news); for the drilling tool testing (say 50%) and the Japanese/USA automotive application (40%)

Multiply each of these theses possibilities and probabilities by the expected value of business to be unleashed and add the lot together and we still get a very high figure. If Neill had the time to do this, or the budgetary freedom, he would get a financial measure for the company's progress. The beauty of this line of thinking is that after setting the original, perhaps hypothetical values, real events can be used to adjust previous guesses by a 'Veracity Factor' for the person monitoring forecasting progress

This stuff is not just academic. I did develop it for forecasting the production mix in the world's largest machine tool company by using it to forecast my machinery salesmen's own results for the following year.

[luckyorange] 18/12/2019 18:02

They are already fading ewads and closing out the shorts on IG.

[1teepee] 18/12/2019 17:52

As the most experienced person here in the life department, has saying those magic words actually resulted in anything, ever?

[alchemy] 18/12/2019 17:45

Couldn't agree more.

[ewads] 18/12/2019 17:32

Agree SCRUTABLE but fear will fall on deaf ears. I'm hoping that when there is a semblance of accountable value linked to VRS then most of the near-do-wells will fade into the sunset.

[ic0gcds00] 18/12/2019 17:13

Why dont some of you holding out for a big rns get off your lazy ases and try and promote the company to areas to collaborate withOr is too hard!!!!

[1teepee] 18/12/2019 17:00

I would hold out for years, the opportunity is so large, it's beyond imagination