Versarien Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 16/11/2016 19:50

Just a quick thought they are scientists so will have chosen the word crumpled carefully. Crumpled = creased wrinkled folded.

I've seen a similar description for GNPs so perhaps a result of the gas cracking method. I assume crumpled they will be good for some uses and not others. Or better performing in some cases and not others.

Few layer has it's sectors but then multi layer can be better for other things. It's not a case of one size fits all.

[superg1] 16/11/2016 19:42

Just checked the data sheet talks of crumpled GNPs so perhaps limits uses or issues. perahps a characteristic of the production method. Surface area 300m2 and single layer is over 2500 m2 so it can't be 3 layer either.

[superg1] 16/11/2016 19:26

1MM

VRS can obviously put in in products as all present were handed a graphene enhanced plastic key fob.

A nice touch but I thinking well that's been made in the AAC factory and no announcement has been made about dispersion tech. It was to be one of my questions "Do you have dispersion capability" well the key fob and other bits aorund answered that.

So I asked a question and said to do this to this standard you need dispersion tech.

They couldn't comment so watch out for news about that, if they can't comment it's news due.

Dispersion is a key element and that is where Haydale have fitted in for now.

A I have said before producing GNPs is difficult and in some cases very costly. producing few layer GNPs is an art that few have mastered. But then they need to have various factors too some of which are destroyed in processes.

Next you need dispersion tech and the know how. End users don't have the tech to mix it or the know how so what use are GNPs to them.

Then what some call GNPs are not GNPs. All info points to 10 layers or less being the standard that will be set by the national physical laboratory at which point most GNP suppliers will fall off that description. That includes the current Haydale product with Goodfellow as it around 50 layers.

I don't know you saw the post, performance we talk of for few layer falls off a cliff once you head over 10 layer level.

As a supplier you need to have the product, the dispersion and the expertise to show the customer how to introduce it and get the results they want.

How many producers have verifiable data about the GNP layers, dispersion and verifiable test data.

I have been hunting for test data for 2 years and it was like hens teeth until VRS just announced some.

So having got all the data the key is cost effective and for that I say :-).

You can't stick it in plastics unless the costs levels are very low.

I said pre open day you don't buy a car if no one has petrol to go in it, you make sure there is petrol available first.

So you don't buy a plastics factory if the GNP cost is prohibitive.

[superg1] 16/11/2016 19:05

Vrs are well aware of Cambridge and maintain their claims. I did note the video and an expensive looking set up.

I didn't mention them as I've been through them and got figures etc which doesn't help their claims.

I did note a comment about wrinkles in the GNPs but don't know if that affects their usefulness.

However think about it, that's the AGM method bottom up and AGM are way behind Cambridge. AGM clearly have issues with quality on that method perhaps Cambridge do too

AGM M/C £30 mill and £70k of sales.

Cambridge last accounts.

Revenue £200k
Cash £400k
net assets minus £4 million.

VRS said they believe they are the UK lead and potentially the world lead in GNPs. The disclaimer was they can't account for those not known about out there. VRS know all about Cambridge in great detail and all others in the UK.

Re the rest of the world don't forget most of it makes it ways through the UOM and NGI and VRS are within that with the UOM invested in VRS.

[the prophet] 16/11/2016 18:16

Vasilis Interesting post and link.The info on the Cambridge nano systems web site indicates their graphene is under 1nm thick, and as graphene is around .34nm thick, then that suggests they are producing gnp's that are around, on average, 3 layers thick. That sounds very good, but I'm not 100% sure I have interpreted the info correctly.VRS reckon they can produce high quality graphene at raw materials plus cost, i.e. Very cheaply, so should, in theory, be able to compete with anyone.You are right, the prices will and must come down, then we will get mass uptake of graphene. Potentially the market is massive and this indicates there will be numerous companies in this space. No reason why VRS can't be one of them.

[vasilis] 16/11/2016 17:50

Cambridge Nanosystems use a very interesting method of production which you can see if you click on the video link on their page showing cost for 10g as rightly pointed out by serratia -

Cambridge Nano offer two different densities according to intended customer applications and claim in the video link to be able to produce in kilos. This is clearly a serious but very young outfit and currently recruiting.

As I've pointed out before, customers will buy what does the job for them and at the right price, not the actual technology per se. I don't know if Versarien are going to be able to charge more than Cambridge Nano for greater quantities, but if offerings such as Cambridge Nano's can 'do the job' and other competitors can also match their offerings, history tells us that prices only go one way over time - down. Time - and the marketplace - will determine who the future winners will be in this disruptive technology, and we may end up with companies involved with 'high end, specialist offerings' at a premium price at one end of the spectrum, and companies dealing in more 'general, non-specialist offerings' at the other end. Too early to tell at the moment in my view.

[superg1] 16/11/2016 17:14

Cyber

Break even over there with a 200k sell so may be the remnants of the supply where there have been some regular 200k sells but equally could be a recent buy sell but I'm not sure many PIs have gone in that strong.

Interims should be in weeks so we'll get some colour perhaps re those various GNP interest comments and cash position etc.

[cyberbub] 16/11/2016 16:29

More buying over on ISDX this afternoon.

[serratia] 16/11/2016 16:10

Just throwing out some figures -

Cambridge nanosystems - No idea yet whether their material is sub 10 but they sell 1 gm for £288 at best. For 10gms it's £96/gm. So for larger quantities it's 1/3 rd of the cost.

I agree that VRS wouldn't expand the production capacity unless they had the demand. Let's be conservative 500 gms/week for 46 weeks gives 23,000 gms. Nothing from the extra capacity.

The broker says £500k sales next year. That equates to £21.7/gm. Playing it another way they sell 1 gm quantities at £400/gm. What if 10 gm lots are around 1/3 rd of the price,say £130/gm ? That's still only around 40 days production.

So either they're really going to drop the price which I doubt or they'll sell 6 * the broker forecast.

Of course sales don't often go from very little to full single plant in one step so 6* is probably an over estimate. On the other hand if the first large order works out the OEM may be forecasting demand at more than 500 gm/week hence the need for more capacity. 2 kgs/month at a 0.1% addition rate is only 2 tpm end product which isn't large in end product terms.

Who knows but on balance the broker appears to be conservative.

[superg1] 16/11/2016 15:10

jointer

We asked re non reg and the CEO said they like to keep things low key and not over-state, but if that deal turns into an order then they would release and a reg RNS which confirms the significant bit.

As I understand it having asked, VRS did not know the ID of that OEM at he time of the news but do now and I believe are talking directly to them from what was said.

It's no secret they said no guarantees either way which we all know but such news must potentailly add good cash base on significant and how VRS don't like to over-state things.

On the catula NGI news OEM UKBG etc and BGI partners that would either be Rolls Royce or Dyson, but then that news playing with words could have been meaning more than one re UK.

If not an original NGI partner all of whom are listed then it could be anyone, all we know is they are large, but someone heard huge. I haven't got a starter scale to determine the difference for large and huge in OEM terms.

On the partner list but mot UK are Airbus who have a strong link to VRS.

I don't think the large/huge OEM is a fishing rod specialist uk based BTW. :-)

[the prophet] 16/11/2016 15:05

many thanks SG for your post pulling all the GNP stuff for this year together, very informative and does show the business and technical momentum VRS are achieving.

[jointer13] 16/11/2016 14:58

hi all
like the look of this company...got in it a few days ago
just to add to sg's thinking (if not already said)

from recent rns

"Following the positive test results from the project the NGI have indicated that they wish to purchase a significant quantity of graphene from Versarien for a specific project with a major OEM".



Professor Robert Young FREng, FRS, Professor of Polymer Science and Technology at The University of Manchester, commented: "The successful project demonstrated that the addition of 2-DTech XT graphene to the epoxy resin matrix was able to give a significant improvement in the performance of carbon-fibre reinforced epoxy composites. This technology is now being evaluated by a major UK company for use in a number of different structural components, with a view to commercial products being produced within the next six months."

[superg1] 16/11/2016 14:54

KLF

If you look at his page then the diagram shows Qdots from either coal or graphite.

New to me re fluorescing I've not looked at that aspect due to composites but an intersting angle so perhaps GNPS are alsp a treat to waht we call Qdots.

The picture at the top of the page says it all re flourescing

[superg1] 16/11/2016 14:42

The KLF

The graphene Q dots don't sound any different to GNPs.

Eg

Wiki

Graphene quantum dots (GQDs) represent single-layer to tens of layers of graphene of a size less than 30 nm

Perhaps some like to call then Qdots because fo the Qdot attention that already exists.

But picking on that company look what they say.

Most GQD’s available today are based on bulk Graphene sources which in turn are based on Graphite raw materials. This makes GQD’s extremely expensive, with high cost production processes manufacturing very small amounts of GQD's.

'This makes GQD’s extremely expensive'

Really!! some of have done the maths and got answers on yields from graphite so know the theoretical costs of the raw product per gram.

I'm not going to quote the figure but the cost of the raw material is tiny per gram.

Even if you had a 1% yield for graphite base rate some of had been working on then it's 20p per gram. IE £2000 for a 10,000 gram yield, but we learned the yield is way way baove our safe assumption. So who cares about a penny or 2 in a current £100's of pounds per gram market.

Many in the market say it's expensive to produce, some don't but don't publicly for obvious reasons.

But going back to their comment how is pence or less 'extremely expensive'.

Not like the Aussies of course to brag (apologies aussie viewer) but if you are a true Aussie then you are up for banter, and I'm all for friendly banter as you may well know ;-)

No thanks I don't want a bush oyster.

[superg1] 16/11/2016 13:58

Right going through news this year and picking out GNP bits.

Trading update 6th April.

New graphene applications continue to be developed through a number of collaborations, particularly in the areas of composites and batteries. Versarien's ability to supply high quality graphene in commercial quantities following the breakthrough in the scalable manufacture of graphene platelets, announced last year, is driving considerable interest in incorporating graphene into a wide variety of real world applications.

and they mention on the hunt for a relevant business to add GNPs which turned out to be AAC.

YE news 19th July

Significant advances in graphene with commercial production of three graphene types in progress:

Four partnerships formed post-year end to expedite adoption of graphene into key markets: batteries, carbon fibre products and enhanced composites for 3D printing and aerospace industry.

I'll come back to partners as that may well be some of the demand.

'With graphene we are moving rapidly towards commercial applications'

We now have the ability to produce graphene using almost all the available techniques and going forward, will concentrate on three. Graphene Nanoplatelets (GNPs), produced by the exfoliation process, are suitable for use in printable electronics, opto electronics, solar cells, plastics, biomedical devices and energy storage. Both Graphene Oxide (GO) and Reduced Graphene Oxide (RGO) are produced using a wet chemistry method and are suitable for use in paints, inks, rubber, lubricants, and printing.

The outlook for both our technology products is very promising.

The graphene business is experiencing renewed energy after a year of considerable preparation and planning.

NGI news comment 13th October.

We intend to significantly scale up our capacity to produce graphene to meet the demand we are seeing, which is only expected to increase."

UOM debt swap news

'we are delighted that UoM has further demonstrated its confidence in the progress Versarien is making in commercialising the graphene technology'

So it seems plenty there to show demand has been going up and the 13th Octber comment key re curuent demand and scaling up.

Now on what part of the demand may be. Post YE they did 4 colloborations, so you have 3ED, CT which may be material due to their aerospace work, Bromley which may also include those baseboards I mentioned. I didn't think too muc about Warwick as that is batteries but I spotted something else in that news.

"We anticipate that the MOU will enable us to collaborate on a number of projects with WMG."

Then there is absolute engineering which I think included those printer heads.

Others are Dyesol and Evodental.

So there has been a growing list of collaborations that need GNPs and the significant ones post year end. Health one just come up and now we know they were supplying the NGI for tests in carbon fibre. Haydale also have a deal for supplies.

But back to thay one line

We intend to significantly scale up our capacity to produce graphene to meet the demand we are seeing, which is only expected to increase."

That is the obvious driver and reason 'demand they are seeing' and expect to see.

So from that TP I can only asssume that the GNP side is seeing good sales and bringing in some cash at this time with anticapation that 100 grams per day won't be enough to meet demand.

[theklf] 16/11/2016 13:16

superg1 what do you make of the Australian company Dotz Nano ? They had IPO this week and are doing graphene quantum dots

Meanwhile more car companies talking about graphene batteries

www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/motors/is-this-the-car-to-take-on-tesla-a3392551.html

[superg1] 16/11/2016 13:02

TP

Thanks Good to get views and I'll dig out the comments that suggest they are eeing demand.

Maytress

What I didn't say and meant to is that I like to see such share price movements as then you cab view PI reaction and get an idea of the type of holder.

Perhaps much of the supply went to another fund that has been buying there were a number of large tarde later reports along the way.

Well not a lot happened on that dip test other than some buys.

The share I fear the most like a few miners at the moment is a straight line up x very big % moves. You then have millions of shares some geared and the share full of traders. So I never buy those unless there is a quick trade available usually minutes post share price collapse via traders and margin calls.

Very bad news shares 7am with a following often see a bounce after 10 mins post market open as MMS try to deal with all the panic selling and inevitable margin calls. The bigger the drop the more likely a quick trade for profit is there. You have to be careful on those though as SB companies may not push all through early on some also have 10am, 1pm and 4pm deadlines to shift margined out stock.

Those have to be big following hype shares with active BBs and volumes to match.

On long term shares I'm not too bothered about the price within reason just that you can get them while they are around as I know evry well what happens if the herd arrives on any share.

Fortunately the miners surge and the usual suspects in the market catch their attention. Graphene and the AIM companies linked to it show no sign of nay interst at all and that is fine by me.

Everyone knows everyone else loves oil gold and metals.

They got excited about Qdots once and took a company up to a £400 mill M/C. QFI did that too.

I have no doubt GNPs will become common place in 1000's of products and a lot faster than I was anticipating. Demand will be serious multples of Qdots as Qdots have restricted market in comparison but a better picture on your TV attracts attention but the DOW initial deal was the hype attraction there

Then on demand and supply we look at who is doing what and some false claims.

Just look at plastics. 300 million tonnes per year 1% of that 3 million, 1% by GNP loading 30,000 tonnes of GNPs needed. 10% market penetration then it 300,000 tonnes needed.

Paints 50 million tonnes and so on.

There is along list and I hope they don't put it in concrete which they are testing, due to potential enhanced properties.

It's a very big market and may well be the largest ever with room for many more than are in it now.

[maytrees] 16/11/2016 12:32

Greetings supergi
Interesting post - many tx.

[superg1] 16/11/2016 12:30

Maytrees

You can see how much I researching I do and I follow the market behaviours. I now have 7 years of intense watching of PI and MM behaviour.

I post many times about it on a particular thread.

So yes either a sell or leftovers of the supply or the MMs trying to get short term trades to cash in fear of a dropping price. I like big spreads on the point of keeping gearing folk at bay, as they operate outside the Bid/offer.

PIs buy when a price is rising strongly in fear of missing the boat and sell if it drops. Typically it's prominent on herd shares.

I've lost count on the amount of times I have watched a dive tried to buy and find orders turned down.

The MMs can move the price wherever they like more or less within the boundaries of buy/sell orders. The easiest way to find a supply is drop the price put it up and buying starts.

We had a long haul at 10-11p so churn if it is the case is good.

For me this is a buy and hold and perhaps buy more depending on supply demand and any updates or information found.

[the prophet] 16/11/2016 12:29

Hi SG
I thought NR said they had board approval to double production of Graphene, not they had already done it? I could be wrong or misheard.Not that it really matters, the intent is the same.
I also got the feeling that it was lovely to sell the odd gram here and there @ £400 a pop, but we ain't going to get rich on that?

I assume that they have increased capacity in advance of expected orders/demand.They may not be actually doing 100g a day right now, it could be considerably less, but that the expected demand could use all that up plus the extra capacity.That is just one scenario. It does not necessarily follow that doubling production means we are full to the nuts right now.

NR indicated that they can produce high quality graphene at a very cost effective price, so it's difficult to say , imo, what they are doing right now, what they intend to do and when in terms of production quantity and what overall sale price.
What we do know is the capacity. We also know the top end price.We also know that the broker is forecasting £0.5m graphene sales this year, which is forecast to double next f/y.
it does seem that this division has some momentum, that much seems clear.

[cyberbub] 16/11/2016 12:12

Very odd if you could buy at 12p, just an hour after someone had to pay 12.9 to buy? Yes must be a sudden sell in the system at maybe 11.75p?Been a few trades on ISDX today, more shares bought than sold so far.

[maytrees] 16/11/2016 11:55

Added a few at 12p just now - Presume 5% share price fall caused by a largish sell to come?

[superg1] 16/11/2016 11:17

A query for the other diggers out there.

I quite excited about the GNPs production side and will go on about that later when I've dragged all the comments in news together and prior news combined with what was said on the day.

Those present heard it. Why drop price per gram if we have a premium product and the going research price is high and the demand is there.

Now if you look at last years sales it's obviously a few grams.

We know VRS in standard working day can do 100 grams of the high grade GNPs, they alos so other grades GO and RGO but sticking to high grade.

They have doubled up production capability within the same facility, not going to they have.

GNPs do not store well as they reattach themselves to each other, you can't stockpile them.

Zulu principle advice

'to do their own digging, to read between the lines and interpret information in a way that will give them an edge.'

So with all that info the only logical conclusion and I did ask is that demand or use near term is over 100 or forecast to be over 100 grams per day for the high grade GNPs.

There are comments in news that back that up but if they are knocking out 100 grams per day to meet demand be it their own need for plastics or supplies to someone else then it's potentially already transforming the business.

Now for those there you all know what was said about patent protection and restrictions, now use that and work out how may staff they need to produce those GNPs.