Versarien Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 06/11/2016 18:29

TP

I had the same thought re the Nomad. I don't trust nomads having had a run in with them on other shares. Many times I have been told by CEOs that the nomad blocked or took info out of news put forward by the company. Nomads do have motives like clients.

I suspect VRS wanted the info put there so took the non reg route.

Nomads imo are simply fee hungry money grabbers looking for fund raising fees and gains. That's generally how far their interest goes.

I can show numerous occasions on many shares where they have refused to release material negative news. I don't just post it I ring them and they refuse to talk etc.

[the prophet] 06/11/2016 16:00

Another point of interest is I note AAC Cryoma has had some £9m invested in it , which possibly indicates VRS has something of a bargain with a purchase price of c. £2mhttp://www.aaccyroma.co.uk/about-us/But it's currently a low margin business, so the purchase price is probably about right. But if VRS are able to use that £9m investment to develop a range of graphene enhanced products then it could look an astute piece of business.Let's see what Wednesday brings.

[the prophet] 06/11/2016 15:44

Presumably VRS's NOMAD advised it was RNS non, seems a strange decision to me.Re the heat sink business, the forecast sales growth is impressive but the contribution to operating profit less so.Could be a number of reasons, perhaps it's just a low margin business where only modest premiums can be charged for improved performance or perhaps the fixed overheads are such that the business has not yet had a chance to show its true mettle.The forecasts for the heat sink business for the next three years are t/o of £1.9m, £2.7m and £3m with op of minus 0.3, +0.1 then +0.2.I'm certainly not knocking this side of the business, as that is decent sales traction by anyone's standards and an increase of £0.3m sales from '18 to '19 results in a doubling of op. That may well indicate that op could take off once sales get north of £3m, although I must admit I have no idea of the potential for this business.Interesting to note the graphene business is forecast to turn in impressive operating profit margins of around 50% in '18 and '19, not forgetting '18 financial year starts in under 5 months time, as f/y ends at end of March, so all relatively near term.As VRS includes two early stage businesses, the forecast time to substantive profits is ,imo, quite short and presumably testament to the commercial nous and experience of the bod.

[superg1] 06/11/2016 13:28

Looking at rns definitions it seems it should have been a regulatory because it had the potential to affect the share price.

[superg1] 06/11/2016 12:25

TP

I take the reason for non reg was due to

'the NGI have indicated that they wish to purchase a significant quantity of graphene'

So in that sense it's not a confirmed order but I do suspect it would be significant and generate a further rns if the order is confirmed.

I'm also wondering if they will have to rns pre open day on performance achieved as it seems that's what we will be told about.

Also worth asking why it was non reg as it is material news if you understand it but again they haven't listed detail.

They have effectively told the market so perhaps no need to rns again and we can then get the underlying data away from the eyes of the market.

EG

'has demonstrated the benefit of adding graphene, particularly with regard to significantly enhancing the strength of the structure.'

Professor Robert Young FREng, FRS, Professor of Polymer Science and Technology at The University of Manchester, commented: "The successful project demonstrated that the addition of 2-DTech XT graphene to the epoxy resin matrix was able to give a significant improvement in the performance of carbon-fibre reinforced epoxy composites.

So that answers the performance but not in numbers

Our supply of graphene to the NGI, coupled with our own dedicated graphene enhanced plastics manufacturing facility, established through our recent acquisition of AAC Cyroma, is just the start of the commercialisation phase. We intend to significantly scale up our capacity to produce graphene to meet the demand we are seeing, which is only expected to increase."


It's all there the market just doesn't read it, but in the case of VRS it's just us few here reading it I suspect. Then reading is one thing and understanding another.

Had it been AGM I'm sure it would have been a regulatory rns about 3 pages long.

As I said before VRS stay quiet compared to the normal AIM chest beating, I only knew about the US award in 2016 for their heat sinks as I stumbled across it.

EG

'Versarien has just been recognised for its innovation in thermal management by one of the United States’ leading technology publications.'

'It's team assess literally thousands of entries, covering all aspects of the global electronics business eventually arriving at 12 different companies – with Versarien being the only British winner.'


I don't believe you will find that in news. Now what would any other AIM company have done with that.

[the prophet] 06/11/2016 11:55

I'm surprised the NGI news was a non- reg one. Ok the value of the graphene to be supplied may be non-material, but would have thought the news was a 'RNS' as in price sensitive.I guess 2D need to be able to produce GNP at significantly lower costs than current methods to get mass adoption and not just for a few specific high end bits and bobs and also at the same time demonstrate the benefits of 2D GNP as opposed to GO or other cheaper substitutes where performance may be mitigated by cost and/or simply shoving more in.

[superg1] 06/11/2016 11:33

In the innovate video they mentioned a recent report by Goldman sachs on advanced materials as the new revolution on the way.

I've been lucky enough to have read it as it's not widely available.

It includes Graphene, GNPs Go and so on and lists various companies including Haydale, AGM, Directa plus and Graphene nanochem all on the AIM. There is no mention at all of 2D-tech or Versarien.

Reading through the report I can see it looks well behind the current circs even though it produced just weeks ago.

It describes the method we mention like top down from graphite and bottom up.

On the VRS top down method it describes the ability to get to 100 layers and 10 layers. They call the potential immense but state it's at the embryonic stage. They list the US plastics industry as $370 billion.

This is where they have missed the trick in play.

They list the bottom up process (like AGM) as high cost, high purity, for value added applications, 5-10 years away.

Top down they list as low cost, low purity and mass production.

They say the application areas are huge.

Well in that bit they have missed what is going on as top down is already producing high quality high purity GNPs as in the VRS rns. As I keep saying doing so is very difficult to achieve as the process to get GNPs can be highly destructive.

They talk of it waiting for the "killer ap" which I take to mean an identified commercial use facilitated by bulk low cost high quality GNPs. They mention costs and bulk capability as an issue at the moment, but see exponential growth once it gets going.

But then they go on about prices it would need to replace carbon black in certain products and mention carbon black as 25% of weight in some products whereas GNPs would be 1-2%.

What they fail to consider there is the transformational performance changes that carbon black does not achieve. Also it seems 1-2% is too much going by the comments in the VRS video and it may well be .1%. Hopefully the details of optimum percentages will be known on Wednesday.

Here is what I see as the problem for them to comment and it's an issue I go on about having hunted around for some time and that's why I want to ask questions on the topic.

Goldman mention the Tennis racquet which will be head and 'claims' of performance improvement, they are obviously wary of the claims as it's not quantified.

Then they mention carbon fibre by Haydale and say It's said to enhance carbon fibre. Again there are no details about performance. No one anywhere has really said here you go verified performance independent/expert testing.

Verifiable data of performance enhancement is the missing key in the industry as a whole. If it's true they say it could be a game changer.

So there you go the obvious bits missing are data and that's what I hope to hear about since the completion of the VRS/NGI carbon fibre project conclusion IF they release the details.

So to me that news re the NGI could be significant if they now say what has been achieved and that performance is on a scale material to the industry.

[superg1] 05/11/2016 19:02

2020

I've done quite a bit of reading and listened to what some said in those innovate speeches.

One huge problem for new tech and new companies is the dinosaur approach. Near all big companies stay in "If it ain't broke don't fix it mode" hence disruptive technology finds it hard to penetrate the industry. The big guns don't like change.

The innovate lot also said it's for that reason small companies can make breakthroughs as the big companies get lazy in seeking out new technology. It's often said on bios that the big companies are happy for the small companies to waste millions hunting for new approaches and they can then just pick off those that actually develop into something.

In the aerospace auto sector there is a huge amount of talk and drive for going lighter and the only way to do that is advanced materials. The driving factor is emmisions with 2020 being a date to hit certain levels. On that side the emission via engine management and exhausts have run their course, there is very little room left (ask Audi and plenty of others). The route that is behind is weight, if they make vehicles lighter fuel use drops and it helps hit the emissions rules.

So on that point there is a big drive on changing metal parts for composites and obviously that may well be good timing with the enhanced composites appearing with in their strength increases and other beneficial properties. It should transform the industry. As GNPs RGO and Go can be introduced to just about every man made product it's an astronomical market.

[superg1] 05/11/2016 18:48

Shavian

Thankfully this isn't share loaded with PIs geared it has been ignored and left alone for many months. Aspects like the oil side hitting the Carbide products has already run it's course with a substantial drop to a level I hear of 10% for normal action on that side. Not all products go to the oil business of course.

Total Carbide has been running for something like 50 years or more so they are still running after all the ups and downs. I see Cryoma has been around 14 years so must have done ok in the 2009 crash.

There are a few flyer shares about so there could be some carnage for PIs in those as in that scenario they would get hit badly in theory and there will be substantial gearing in play.

However the market is always very good at creating the problem itself by scaring everyone to death. I did note oil never hit the $10 pb they were all talking about. If it did I'd have had a penthouse suite long on the oil price.

[shavian] 05/11/2016 18:07

SG And TP: keep up these great posts please! In terms of sheds, I now have two, but of modest proportions. It looks like a turbulent week coming up with events across the pond possibly causing an upheaval in the markets, which may well overwhelm the news coming out from the Cryoma open day. Moreover, if these is a general sell-off, VRS may not be immune on Weds/Thurs. if we get a decent dip I'll be inclined to become known as "Three-Sheds Shavian". Holding back from accumulating may soon be seen as a wasted opportunity! GLA

[superg1] 05/11/2016 14:00

I think the AGM fells should dig deeper

I note the news says the deal is with Century Composites Ltd. Bits on the web suggest they have a turnover of about £1 mill.

That rns could new could be just peanuts in revenue and nothing more than hype.

I'll look into it myself a bit deeper as accounts are available for £4.99.

Now I'm all for investing in anything in the sector that looks like a runner so it's not a specific dig at AGM just a very furrowed brow about their claims and progress.

For now to me AGM is one in fundamental terms to avoid. In terms of the share price flying it could be highly likely given the way they push out news with a tight shares situation.

[superg1] 05/11/2016 13:43

Fishing rods AGM

I looked up the Mackenzie FX1 which is already on the market with CNTs (graphene). They say the Graphene is in the resin that's added.

In reality it's only going to be a few grams of resin then possibly 0.1 % of that being the Graphene. So it's possibly to be small fractions of a gram per rod

I see their rod is just short of £1000 pounds.

So high costs GNPs at £1000 per gram are viable in such markets but in truth produce little revenue.

Then if someone can supply such GNPs at the fraction of the costs it makes any high cost producer unviable.

So I think that's why AGM are in fishing rods, it's viable on theor production rate and costs are not prohibitive in such an elite market.

In terms of overall revenue I imagine it's very poor. In terms of suggesting it opens doors then imo only to the high costs elite products.

[the prophet] 05/11/2016 13:39

Thanks SG, some very good points.
A lot of questions for VRS on Wednesday, hope there is time to fit it all in. 2 hrs including a tour of the facilities sounds on the tight side.

[superg1] 05/11/2016 13:11

TP

I asked straight out re pricing in the market.

I take that level to be due to the research and sampling process. As stated I asked around re AGM and their price per gram was thought be be £1000 per gram.

So like you I wouldn't expect prices in a commercial product to be anyhwre enar those levels.

That's what throws up other issues for some, it's not just about being able to produce them but at what costs. For some it may be viable now due to the high research sample prices.

Back to the news

Importantly, the 2-DTech production process provides significant amounts of single layer graphene on an industrial scale.

2-DTech are currently working with a number of clients, from industries as diverse as military, medical and consumer products, requiring access to high quality, cost effective graphene.

Now taking the .1% content by weight comment in the video. If your are talking 1 kg of plastic then it would need 1 gram of GNPs or £400 per kg of plastic.

Well logic suggests it would be nowhere near that and costs must be viable as they just bought a plastics factory to introduce enhanced plastics. Scaling up must be viable too as at 100 grams per day they could at .1% only do 100kg of plastic per day. Although in plastics terms they may mean a lot of parts depending on what it is.

Then there is the point of few layer 1-5 v multi-layer 5-10 and performance. EG few layer may not be needed for some applications IE no need for a bullet proof battery cover etc.

EG

Car bumpers easily break just trying hitting a phesant, so it will be interesting to hear what the performance gain is.

[the prophet] 05/11/2016 12:30

Or is the research price a low one to encourage take up?

[the prophet] 05/11/2016 11:15

Hi SG1

The current capacity of 100 grams a day and a pricing of £400 per gram doesn't seem to tie in with the most recent broker's forecast, only a month ago, for graphene revenues.

They are
2017 £0.5m
2018 £1m
2019 £1.5m.

Clearly these are just esitmated round numbers, and I note your £400 per gram is estimated reserach sample price, I assume price will be much lower for regular commercial quantities.
All the same, your estimated current theoretical £800K/month is an order of magnitude out from the broker's estimates, such that one wonders why they need to expand capacity?
And can they really sell all current production, or if that was the case, the price is closer to £40/g rather than £400!
I'm sure all wil be clearer next Wednesday, but any comments or views in advance of that would be very welcome. Thanks.

[superg1] 05/11/2016 10:59

An obvious point.

Reading that line it seems like all current capacity is being sold which going on the current rate is a significant upgrade equal to all current revenue going on evaluation/research sample sale prices

I don't want to misread that so will seek some clarity this week. For now I'm assuming it's not meant to read like that. A question on that said it would be answered on the open day (scaling up)

On the 2D-tech product page it says "available in any quantity" BUT then there is a listed 100 grams per day production rate. That of course can be scaled up.

I'm guessing the any quantity comment has 2 potential meanings. Any quantity commensurate with current demand OR any quantity on scale up within expected market adoption of enhanced products.

As said before I asked about capacities and scaling up from 100 grams per day of few layer GNPs. They said the next challenge is 100 kg per day.

Note that's a 26 tonnes target v AGMs 1.6 tonne target.

IF they were currently selling all product produced a £400 per gram, then the recycling bin/shed position is going to have to upgrade for me.

Note they do more than 100 grams per day I'm specifically referring to few layer GNPs they do other levels and grades too.

Product page



The home page lists the 100 grams per day

[superg1] 05/11/2016 09:06

A point in news that I didn't fully digest. So questions on the 9th.

EG

"We intend to significantly scale up our capacity to produce graphene to meet the demand we are seeing, which is only expected to increase,"


So they are going on about scaling up due to demand being seen now it seems.

If you check prior revenue then it was negligible revenue in the past.

The current 8 hour week day capacity for the top end GNPs is 100 grams per day. That equates roughly to 2kgs per month. It doesn't seem like a lot but typically evaluation research type samples would be around the £400 per gram mark or over £800k per month at that rate.

It could well be internal demand for sale of advanced plastics but then there is also the significant quantity wanted by the NGI.

The fact is few layer GNPs in bulk levels are hard to get hold of with VRS looking like the world lead on few layer supplies.

So I wonder just how quickly they can scale up and what costs are. Obviously scaling up would be done on a demand basis.

[billbyrne] 04/11/2016 13:09

Got it, thanks TP

[superg1] 04/11/2016 12:09

There is a new website claiming to be the portal for all things graphene related so I'll stick it in the header.

It's US based and has identified Manchester as key as in this page. There us an event today at the UOM/NGI involving US folk as in the news

[superg1] 04/11/2016 08:22

I take it from the comments around 4.10 that the plastics have shown material enhancement and as stated they went on a hunt for a plastics acquisition to take such enhanced products to market. In his words

"As a result we will be able to launch products within 2-3 months instead of taking years"

I also note their as sepcific mention of the injection moulding aspect. That was a point mentioned by the sceintist in the video in the header when he said carbon fibre can't be injection moulded.

So it seems to me the injection moulded aspect is a material part of the gain in enhanced plastics through addition of GNPs.

Just from experience of tinkering with things (particularly cars). It's common to find the various plastic covers and parts broken in some way, they really do snap and shatter very easily. I recall a simply problem on an Audi bumper that the repair centre said couldn't be repaired and hence the bumper would slip and protrude at times. The problem was with the plastic anchors one of which had snapped. They did their best and after it niggled me for some time I thought of a swipe card and how tough the plastic it is. So I simply fixed that in place of the origional anchor (hidden area) and now all is fine. Now if the plastic was strong enough in the first place I wouldn't have need to do that.

Bingo card patent applied for.

[superg1] 04/11/2016 07:35

It took it's time to appear but now you can view the VRS CEO at Innovate yesterday

I've not watched it myself yet but have found the start point which is 3 hour 37 mins into the video

[superg1] 03/11/2016 18:58

I hv erad a few artciles about cabon fibre enhanced products, most hits ineterstingly seem to be UK based.

I had also noticed the odd comment about some top end cars have carbon fibre wheels etc. Being ignorant on the topic and having done some road cycling in the past the though of carbon fibre type wheels on bikes and cars made me wince re the shatter potential v metal.

I just noticed comments about mountain biking carbon fibre graphene enhanced wheels. I thought "You've got to be joking". I don;t know of any of you have evr watched that sport but they are crazy and tjhe bikes get absolutley hammered.

I was stunned by the claims in the article.



'Most notable is an unprecedented increase in durability, strength, and stiffness over traditional alloy offerings on the market. Often, top level teams will need to change rims more than 180 times during a season. World Cup downhill racing champion Steve Peat raced on one pair of the ENVE DH wheels during the entire 2011 season. Traditional aluminum rims historically lasted him a mere one to three runs.'

The a comment which sums up my view re the potential in this sector

'Some scientists believe the ability to move and combine individual atoms and molecules will revolutionize the production of every human-made object leading to a potential new technology revolution.'



The tech is about carbon nano tubes which precedes the new wave of GNPs.

So if anyone wanted to know what graphene does for composites in real terms then then it's quite staggering v alloys in that article.

[affc21] 03/11/2016 16:16

The Prophet,

Got it. Thanks


Good luck with your other jobs to do...

[superg1] 03/11/2016 15:06

The red thumb folk make me smile silly sods. Probably been waiting ages for someone to comment and has now slipped off to the bathroom after the buzz.

It could well be that smooth gorilla fella which I think someone said was an Elektron guy on sour grapes.

It's a daft system introduced by ADVFN where only blues can vote down. It just shows what ADVFN think of their customer base when they think folk will pay to do a red thumb. :-). I ignore it been around ADVFN far too long and the basket cases obviously on here.

I think I'm more mid recycling-shed at the moment and like others waiting for some final bits, hoping the supply is around if boxes get ticked.