Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 10/5/2018 14:32

Final salary linked pensions solve that problem for my generation, al101.

On a more general point, governments legislate that institutions MUST own government debt, and please to call it 'safe'. It's a form of taxation.

In this new, QE world I would put money I needed into equities - 'stalwarts' - very particularly those that had a very large percentage of non-sterling income.

"I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!"

apad

[al101uk] 10/5/2018 13:55

APAD,

I'd be interested to hear how you treat the assets that you feel will provide for you no matter what happens to your "play money"?

Are those investments less liquid, do they carry less risk?

[apad] 10/5/2018 13:35

In conventional terms I have increased my 'risk' considerably.

When I was younger I was more conservative - as I got older I invested in so-called riskier shares because I don't have as much time left. Caveat, I can afford to lose my entire portfolio.

My performance has increased significantly the more 'risk' I take.

Top five shares:
FEVR
BOO
ABC
BVXP
RSW

Gains since 2014 (some held (much) longer than this):
564%
275%
167%
92%
227%

In that time the number of 'low risk' large caps that have crashed and burned is startling.
As is the rise in PER of large cap 'growth' shares such as RB. Reference the recent US utilities crash recently.

I treated FARN as if it wasn't a roulette wheel stock, despite it not having any revenue (my normal criterion). Not a mistake I shall be in a hurry to repeat.

My position is that generic classifications are of little use: Growth/Value/andsoforth. I spend most of my time trying to understand a company.

apad

[allstar4eva] 10/5/2018 11:51

Re: Post 18804. It happens to us all - we sell the bad news and then comes the dead cat bounce and we regret selling. Apad - you put your trades up for all to see which is unusual for ADVFN (but highly commendable) as most only mention the winning trades and nearly always in hindsight. This game is all about risk vs reward imo. The most reward for the least risk. FARN could have easily gone the other way - like all shares success and failure are always just around the corner. The only thing I would say (again) is that IG guaranteed stops (if available) are perfect for FARN/IMM type
scenarios where imminent news will result in huge swings either way.

Big - your post was interesting and also true imho - the more successful you get the more risk you take which then robs you of the success! It is why emotions are so key in this game - easy to say 'manage emotional response' but in practice this is very hard to do!

[apad] 10/5/2018 11:42

Piedro (for the record),
Phase II results were much more than 'safe on humans':
"Most importantly, interferon-beta treatment significantly reduced the all-cause mortality at day 28, the primary end point of the study, compared to the control cohort (Bellingan et al. 2014, Lancet Respiratory Medicine). Traumakine was associated with an 81% reduction in odds of 28-day mortality. Based on these highly encouraging results, a much larger clinical trial has been designed."

With my luck it'll go on to be a success!
apad

[apad] 10/5/2018 11:28

Paul Scott called Next correctly.
apad

[modform] 10/5/2018 10:57

IHP, another recent float printing new highs, quite expensive with a per of 30 but very good history of growthAFM, going the right way for now

[hydrus] 10/5/2018 09:43

Opened a position in IHC. Smallcap healthcare company growing steadily and with an interesting investment to boot.

[apad] 10/5/2018 09:27

Screwed up on FARN every which way!

apad

[apad] 10/5/2018 09:24

XP Power Ltd
Acquisition

apad

[multibagger] 10/5/2018 08:24

O/T

Something afoot in ARC IMHO...couldn't buy even 1000 shares online yesterday at 73p. Looks like a big buy order with limit 73p to hoover up whatever comes on the market. Given the very low liquidity, a sharp move to the late 70s and beyond is likely on any decent buying (about 100k shares or thereabouts which would be less than 1%).

Interesting to see what happens....and I have retested my dummy purchase today - still can't buy even 1000 shares online. Coming events cast their shadow before...good luck all :)

DoI: ARC a decent sized hold for me

[valhamos] 10/5/2018 08:12

SDRY trading update not well received, another US acquisition by XPP and Clareti led growth at GHT seems to be on track.

[hydrus] 09/5/2018 18:40

APAD will have made a fair bit back on boo over the last few days. I have a position there also now having taken some time to reflect on their recent results. I think there are years of growth ahead.

[iceman82] 09/5/2018 18:16

give me your top 3 holdings in portfolio

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 09/5/2018 17:58

Apad.
Great honesty on farn numbers.
Once again vlg thread proving a very worth while read esp from such a regular poster. The opposite being We could all post lies and drivel all day.... but that would be utterly pointless for all concerned.

Shared ups and downs is the way forward.

Personlly I am in a mode of 'portfolio' construction. In time 15-20 dividend paying companies as opposed to 4 higher volility types. Gives me a chance to release the contrarian in me.

Gang check out this site. Www.dividenddata.co.uk
Really useful.

[piedro] 09/5/2018 16:53

janeann - that is my understanding though perhaps more a P-2 thing.

re: Basically it has to do what it claims - they cannot claim only extrapolate {hypothesise}, hence the test

BWDIK, I'm only a simple pharmacologist

[cbootle] 09/5/2018 16:49

Thanks Piedro. Kicking myself for not doing the most basic research - here's a schoolkids' (GCSE) explanation:


Three stages of testing drugs
New medical drugs have to be tested to ensure that they work, and are safe, before they can be prescribed. There are three main stages of testing.

1. The drugs are tested using computer models and human cells grown in the laboratory. Many substances fail this test because they damage cells or do not seem to work.
2. Drugs that pass the first stage are tested on animals. In the UK, new medicines have to undergo these tests. But it is illegal to test cosmetics and tobacco products on animals. A typical test involves giving a known amount of the substance to the animals, then monitoring them carefully for any side-effects.
3. Drugs that have passed animal tests are used in clinical trials. They are tested on healthy volunteers to check they are safe. The substances are then tested on people with the illness to ensure they are safe and that they work.

So, in retrospect, a huge gulf between 2 and 3.

[redartbmud] 09/5/2018 16:42

Big 7
The consensus does appear to be with you on that. Maybe I should have said 'The Force'.

Despite the fact that me degree is in Economics, I am still puzzled by the charts, hence my erratic buy and sell entry and exit points when dealing.

red

[janeann] 09/5/2018 16:34

Piedro - don't think it has to be better than anything currently available; as I understand it that was something the EU wanted but it never got through. Basically it has to do what it claims

ps SPE - share price performing exceptionally; should have kept it in the monthly comparison!

[big7ime] 09/5/2018 16:27

ASCI showing inv H&S chart and is more mkt related - tgt approx 317

[piedro] 09/5/2018 16:23

Piedro - 16 Feb 2018 - 05:02:47 - 17186 of 18788
FARN is quite some gamble IMO

I have been buying Ergomed (ERGO) which is profitable, has royalty interests in some drug developments as well as their own product preparing for Phase III.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

My take on pharmaceutical trials is the following:
Phase I - It does'nt kill animals and could work in humans
Phase II - it does'nt adversely affect humans
Phase III - must prove the drug, using different doses for specific treatments, different types of patients and must be an improvement on than anything currently available.

The fact that the drug fails for those conditions doesn't mean that it may not be suitable for other conditions

AIMO

[redartbmud] 09/5/2018 16:20

The investment into training and demonstrations is a cornerstone of the business.
The innovation centre at New Mills is state of the art and must have cost a fortune to build. The running costs must be significant.
They can get customers in for demonstrations and training that replicates the factory floor.
Their focus on making complex operations easy to manage can only be a draw for customers. Hands on operators can manage multi-machine layouts and re-programme those machines very quickly.
Cost savings, over a year, must be very significant once the machines are up and running.

red

[big7ime] 09/5/2018 16:14

XD usually brings a fall Red yes esp where divi is good. That aside, Using my newly acquired charting skills Red, CNA price tgt 165 in the next 3mths
I bought when I thought it oversold and saw the inverse H&S pattern at 145