Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 03/5/2018 09:26

From the PTSG thread:

rivaldo3 May '18 - 09:14 - 852 of 853
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A couple of months ago I went to a PTSG presentation, and promised to post my notes, which I then forgot about :o((

Anyway, I came across the notes again, so here's a summary:

- current turnover run-rate is £60m (up from 2017's £52.9m). The target is £100m in the next 2-3 years
- conditions for compliance services post-Grenfell are the best Teasdale has seen for 30 years. Compliance service jobs are not a choice, they're recession-proof, and they're high-margin work
- "unprecedented" demand at present - and it's coming from regulatory drivers (fire, sprinklers etc)
- no more than 5% of customers take more than 1 service at present, so there's a huge cross-selling opportunity
- each £1 of compliance work wins generates another £1 of additional repair/compliance work
- very dominant position in lightning protection. Lighting installation installations can make between £10k-£20k (more than I'd thought
- the price for the sprinkler systems acquisition was agreed in Feb'17, but only completed in Sept'17 (which explains why it was so cheap). This business has doubled its order book since acquisition
- renewals are 85%-90% of revenues every year
- no one client has over £1m exposure, and the small Carillion debt is the only bad dent PTSG have ever had. Interserve's debt is only £200k
- PTSG have just won a £1.7m contract from Hackney Council for sprinkler systems in 95 tower blocks
- there are several thousand 3 and 5 year contracts, so very high recurring income
- PTSG's Clarity software, entirely developed in-house, could well be licensed out (another Facilities Management company with 56,000 employees thought it was terrific)

In particular, the CEO stated that PTSG are working on around 12 potential acquisitions, costing from £1m-£35m.

[apad] 03/5/2018 09:06

SN. story seems to go on forever, red. The breakup story will surface again shortly.

VANL - I think Ground Engineering needs nothing short of a building boom to succeed. HS2 maybe. But it's going to be a long haul.

VCT interim should be mid May. Interesting to see if there is any news of 'products' rather than raw material. Solid company.

apad

[redartbmud] 03/5/2018 08:07

You have to laugh.
I went to a presentation by Mercia Technologies.
They trumpeted, loudly, their successful investment in Blue Prism. It has, from memory, grown by 70x since they made the investment.

Hmmm...
They have placed shares @50p - currently trading 36 - 39p.
The experts are hands on managing an ever growing portfolio.
They do not have dividends in their business plan.
Share price unlikely to move upwards, even following an atomic explosion.

Remind me, why are companies quoted on the stock market?

red

[redartbmud] 03/5/2018 07:55

Vanl

Read
What a bloody mess we are in, and we don't have a clue what we are doing with a niche business that should be making great profits.

Sn.
Yawn.
Let's hope the new CEO will breathe some life into the business.

yoodles out of sorts will continue to be the headwind story?

red

[bamboo2] 02/5/2018 21:05

dacian, yes apad had a similar view and to some extent I agree. Since I had already done the basic work on it, I thought I may as well continue to monitor as a bystander, as I do with many other charts. From experience, the potential turn dates are more valuable and useful than the chart pattern target prices. Sometimes it's good to know that a potential turn is around the corner.

[apad] 02/5/2018 19:22

ps
Enteq looking good, dacian. FY mid June.

[bamboo2] 02/5/2018 19:21

Fwiw, farn has a a couple of H&S patterns, one of which has now completed to its min target. I have fine tuned some of the trendlines and revised the next potential turn from 11 May to 9 May. Will be interesting to see if it has any effect. Price has dropped below recent historical support and 50 and 200 smas.

[apad] 02/5/2018 19:06

Hi dacian, as you know I stick to my own decision making processes, but I have to admit to puzzlement about BOO and FARN share price performance, because I can't find a sensible (to me) explanation.

I expected BOO to strengthen more than it has post the (pitch perfect) results, and I am surprised by FARN weakness pre the results.
Still, can't call them all right I suppose.

FEVR is now nearly 30% of Stairway because of my rule of not punishing winners. More angst!

Any financial advisor would freak out by my portfolio spread. 19 companies and the top 5 are 69% of the value.
FEVR
BOO
ABC
BVXP
RSW

Fingers crossed for both of us next week.
Good luck.
apad🤔

[redartbmud] 02/5/2018 13:10

Lauders

£400k 10 year convertible loan note @6.5% coupon.

Shareholders hung out to dry. The boffins can continue to have a jolly good time :-(


Cynical from Coventry.

red

[apad] 02/5/2018 10:33

Brings me out in tiny, tiny spots, Lauders!

apad😊

[lauders] 02/5/2018 10:29

Apad - The FARN BB has seen a marked increase in activity recently. Still not "that popular" yet ;-)

BVXP has been doing well recently. HCM too.

red - NANO news again. Apad had better not look. Grants, nano and graphene all mentioned in one RNS!

[apad] 02/5/2018 10:11

Schroders backing Warpaint.

IQE LTIP!

Finished with FARN now. It's 3.2% of Stairway.
Only a few things to add to dacian's comment. There are no competitors. They will be producers. The drug mechanism is not limited to lungs.
Although not that widely researched, I have not seen such convincing Phase II results. Phase III trials seem to be conducted on borderline Phase II results.

apad😎

[apad] 02/5/2018 08:43

Hope so, homebrewruss, bought more this morning at 794.75.
Just following my big fierce animals principle.
Can't say I understand why the price is falling below the placing on the run up to results though.

Sorry, red, insensitive of me.

apad

[homebrewruss] 01/5/2018 22:43

APAD, this is partly why I was asking what your price expectations were for FARN a few days ago. It has already had a great run over the past year or so.

If you have a look at MTFB last year for example, it rose strongly after the trial completion and until the positive results were announced and has since fallen back and not done too much.

Hopefully you will prove us all wrong with your strategy however :)

[modform] 01/5/2018 22:30

I think FARN at current sp, has some degree of success built into the sp, so how much gain or loss you get based on good or bad results is impossible to predict. You should only allocate the money you can afford to lose to early stage pharma. When I bought more TUNE before the results, I was more sure that share price will rise after results than fall, but can I say the same about FARN, no

[janeann] 01/5/2018 22:29

FARN .....The other issue is the outcome isn't down to the skill of the company - its down to what the compound does; and how the regulator interprets the data If it is safe and it does give benefit then fine; but however good the company the decision is based on the compounds performance. Risky in my book; especially for a large stake. I wish you well with it.

[hydrus] 01/5/2018 21:42

It's a binary event - like 'investing' in a company drilling an oil well. Very different from investing in a quality sustainable business growing organically where value is not contingent on one single event. Re HP example I'm not keen on companies that make large (or in fact any) acquisitions as I've said here before. They add large risks where these didn't exist before the purchase. CLLN was just a poor quality business so not really relevant to this situation. You may well think you understand FARN and the odds are stacked in your favour. In fact I wouldn't bet against you. It's just not for me.

[apad] 01/5/2018 21:24

Hydrus, HP spent 7billion on Autonomy that they wrote off one year later.
Was that gambling?
Or was it an incorrect judgement?

I don't see my analysis of FARN as a 'gamble'.
Clearly a bad Phase III result is sudden death.
However, CLLN was just a slow death.

In some ways all investing is on a spectrum of risk.

Ney Ho.

apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 01/5/2018 19:16

Thanks epo.

Sorted.

[epo001] 01/5/2018 18:53

thelongandtheshortandthetall, type "google" into "the search this thread" box at the top of the page and look at the results.