Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 17/5/2018 17:34

APAD
PRSM Nothing goes up forever and a sector's popularity changes.
However despite your claim to not have a view,you have always had a view and it has consistently been negative.
Amuses me somewhat, that you still bleat on about it despite your recent bad luck with FARN which I did not say before,out of politeness, but in my opinion,was far more risky.
It is often a warning sign when directors sell and Trump certainly is not a fan of Silicon valley, but they sold some before,and followed it with a good announcement, so perhaps they are just very canny in the way they play it.
I don't know where the share price will go from here but well done janeanne for both your profit and sticking it out despite the negative comment here.

[redartbmud] 17/5/2018 17:15

Big7

Ng.
1. Ever increasing debt to fund replacement, worn out, infrastructure and
new investment to expand the network.
2. At the whim of both UK and US Regulators, and the diktat of government. Regulators get increasingly tougher over terms each time that they agree on the funding formula.
3. Vulnerable to increase in interest rates, although presently, they make money on the difference between the rate they borrow at and the factor that they add to prices
charged, to cover the cost of borrowing - the more they borrow, the greater the profit!
4. Illiquid assets - no ready market for sale, if they need to cash in some chips, because they are 'national' assets in both countries.
5. If margins are squeezed, and profits fall, they will find it more difficult to borrow, and more expensive. Regulator/government are likely to trim the margin on interest rate profits, as rates rise, as a direct result of the cost of power to the consumer.
6. Cost of connecting new forms of energy to the grid. Recovery over a long term. 7. Assets normally developed for a 40 year lifer span minimum, so depreciation/amortisation is over that term.

This type of infrastructure should be in Government ownership, and could end up there, at a knock down price, to the Government if Jeremiah and Johnboy win at the next General Election in the UK.

red

[big7ime] 17/5/2018 15:56

Current yld 0.228% so your ave must have been around 2quid
That's a lot of profit to lose

[big7ime] 17/5/2018 15:49

3% APAD?
If that's on your cost it's an odd way to value your investment as the share price could come down so that current yld is that and still not look cheap. Better cash in and find the next imho, they never carry on forever

[janeann] 17/5/2018 12:52

Thanks apad. I top sliced 33% yesterday and mildly been regretting it today; so that post makes me feel marginally better. Didn't like the director sale at such a discount nor the continued losses on increased earnings. Never seem to get prsm quite right and I still think the potential is huge ... if they can balance the books.

spe leads the way in my view on how to sell shares - at a premium to current price - but my holding is getting quite large (by my standards)or Id have a few more!

ps sold my btfd fevr as well this am for a profit that would please red

[apad] 17/5/2018 11:23

It's all about adjectives.

"10.50 am: Fevertree outlook less sparkling
For the first time since joining AIM, Fevertree Drinks PLC (LON:FEVR) has failed to upgrade its outlook for the year in a trading statement.

In an update ahead of its annual general meeting later today, the posh tonic maker said it is “trading in-line with market expectations”.

“The market has become rather accustomed to Fevertree beating expectations and upgrading guidance (January’s was the sixth in the year), so when results are just moderately ahead, things look a little flat,” said Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital.

“We note very strong results today of course but the outlook for 2018 seems a less sparkling than we are used to, with management simply saying it is ‘encouraging’, which explains why we’re seeing a bout of profit-taking in early trade.”"

[apad] 17/5/2018 11:18

I might try a red technique and sell a few before the interims to buy back at 08:03.
But I have a large holding so I'd only be tinkering and I tried it once before with dire results.
apad🤔

[apad] 17/5/2018 11:13

The reduction in margins that will be significant is the opening of a dedicated US operation with associated advertising spend.
The balance sheet valuations that brokers use are of little use in a business like FEVR.

5 weeks ago it was 5% less than the current price, so it is important not to overstate the current rns reaction.

I do admit that it is easier to be patient with a 3% yield, and, of course, it all depends on whether one has anything better in the offing.

apad

[hydrus] 17/5/2018 10:29

I think people do get that- just a question of current valuation. It's a very good business and I'd expect it to be doing well in a few years time so Just holding on as APAD plans to do is probably a decent strategy, if one accepts returns over the next year or so could be low or negative.

[panic investor] 17/5/2018 10:22

I agree - love the way people don't get the compounding of growth

[madmix] 17/5/2018 10:21

FEVR - It's also worth noting that broker forecasts are factoring in a further reduction in margins. 2018 revenue growth is forecast at 20% vs pre-tax growth of 10%.

[apad] 17/5/2018 10:14

FEVR Growth
2016 2017
USA 36% 36%
UK 118% 96%
RoW 88% 57%
EU 39% 44%
Total 73% 66%
We were pleased to achieve growth of 55% in the USA, which represented growth of 36% on a constant currency basis, adjusting for the strengthening US Dollar.

Interims late July.

UK growth rollover inevitable. Excellent if no loss to Schweppes.
Will be a stronger pound effect.
I will be happy if it is business as usual at the interims.
Next March will be the key numbers, as nine months of US independence.
Happy with my 3% divi 'till then.

I don't think a take profits for now and look to get back in after the interims (inevitable dip) is at all a bad strategy.
🍷

[madmix] 17/5/2018 10:09

My concern with FEVR is that brokers are only forecasting 10% eps growth this year.

I've no doubt that the company are being conservative with their "inline" statement and will most likely beat this, but if growth has slowed to around say 20-30% (from 65% last year), then it's more difficult to see upside from the current level, given the current rating.

Clearly US growth will be key. I'm certainly more comfortable holding a much reduced position now, and will be happy to add higher up once we have more evidence of progress in the US.

[hydrus] 17/5/2018 09:55

Sold out of SQZ a few days ago and it's well up since. Annoying but I wasn't comfortable in it as I know nothing about oil. I've come to accept that I can only invest successfully when I understand and believe in my investments. Otherwise I just get shaken out when they drop a bit. BUR looking very strong.

[hydrus] 17/5/2018 09:50

But this time surely it's different as it's only an in line statement? Not comparing like with like APAD

[apad] 17/5/2018 09:40

Seems to happen every time, janeann.
apad

[madmix] 17/5/2018 09:35

Sold two-thirds of my FEVR at the bell. Now down from a major holding to a small one.

I've also added a few ZOO this morning.

[janeann] 17/5/2018 09:14

well I bought a few fevr on the dip; seen this huge dip on updates before ..... and pins... not quite 70 years ago but yes a thing of the past

[hydrus] 17/5/2018 09:14

Added a few ZOO back. Mcap back to £67m. Looks good to me.

[apad] 17/5/2018 09:08

FeverTree tonic - high profile, sponsored on Amazon.com.
Madagascan Cola off the radar still.

However, it will be how they do in US stores that will be the key.

apad🤔

[big7ime] 17/5/2018 08:54

Good retort

[apad] 17/5/2018 08:51

I think we've got a new board metaphor!

apad😊

ps
It was 70 years ago when folks stuck pins in butterflies, j.
They are a cherished rarity these days.

[panic investor] 17/5/2018 08:49

SPE BOD share placing at a premium - you don't see that very often

[big7ime] 17/5/2018 08:48

Ocado up 1.5bn today
A stock I value at zero
Heh ho