Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 09/3/2017 08:14

SPX

There is a link to Analyst call today if you have the time.

hxxp://edge.media-server.com/m/p/42epghr9 at 8.45am

red

[apad] 09/3/2017 08:06

SPX
Generally coping well with a tough (perhaps stagnant) market, but significant help from currency during the second half (probably likely to continue in 2017)
Watson-Marlow, as usual (blessed acquisition), performed extremely well and is the dray horse of the company.
Hiter integration seems to be turning into a smaller drag.
India joint venture now gone - there's a story there - and an independent subsidiary set up.
Countries and markets are broad based. Management seem to be doing their job well.
Cash has been used for acquisitions this year:
Investing Cash Flow (£m) (96.4) (14.7)
so FreeCashFlowYield per share is less than half of last year.
Nevertheless, room for a decent divi increase.
apad

[redartbmud] 09/3/2017 07:58

RDSB

Good move to sell Canadian oil sands business. It raises headline $7.25bn cash as part of it's business plan. Oil sands are expensive to operate and in a continuing low oil price environment it makes perfect sense.
Not sure how they get to the full cash bit though:
The consideration to Shell from Canadian Natural is approximately $8.5 billion (C$11.1 billion), comprised of $5.4 billion in cash plus around 98 million Canadian Natural shares currently valued at $3.1 billion.
Less $1.25bn paid to Marathon Oil.
Still a little finger in the pie, but much reduced exposure.

red

[redartbmud] 09/3/2017 07:47

SPX

What a business.

Nicholas Anderson, Chief Executive, commenting on the results said:

"I am very pleased with the results delivered in 2016, which again demonstrate the robustness of our strategy and strong direct sales business model. We achieved good organic growth and expanded our margin to a record high, against a backdrop of very low global industrial production growth that improved in the latter part of the year. We increased investment in 2016 and, during 2017, will prioritise accelerating revenue and capital investments for growth over further margin expansion, to ensure we continue outperforming our markets by delivering organic sales growth. Assuming no significant deterioration in trading conditions, the Board expects to make further progress in 2017."

Keep going Nick!

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 21:22

Remember you saying.

On GAW I allowed by dislike of the Chairman to cloud my judgement on company potential,
always easy in the rear view mirror.

[apad] 08/3/2017 21:19

Yup, you did.
I sold MCGN on the 24/07/12 for 118.3945p EI.
I allowed myself to be influenced by an ex customer of their wealth management software.
apad

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 21:13

Mentioned MCGN to you last year APAD, then again I sold soon afterwards.
Their Aptitude software is where I saw some value, underestimated how valuable
just a tad ).


Intend to add further to DLG tomorrow if it trades lower.

[apad] 08/3/2017 21:05

Had another look at BREE, red.
Looks like your opinion of the boss' abilities is sound.
Impressive buy and hold.
apad
ps
Selling MCGN a long time ago was a mistake:-(

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 20:16

Hoping BAB is a tad more specialised, however only 1,300 shares,
and that is probably my lot.


It's extraordinarly difficult to recruit for the care sector in London
and te SE atm.

MTO's recent exit from the care sector looks to have cost the company approx
150 Million plus. Any directors or former directors giving some of their prior year
bonuses back?. Not in a month of Sundays.

[redartbmud] 08/3/2017 20:09

Living wage is the headwind for the support sector. If they have that under control they should be ok.

red

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 18:35

GFS, there is life in the support service sector, very nice reaction
to results, looks more than fairly value to me.

Notice Invesco appear to hold over 10% of BAB, Mike Barnett's call would assume.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 17:36

C appears to have gone up again, Capita, bought a few last week and
it looked horiffic initially, now just a bit bloody ).


red, crude appears to be plunging now!, oh my.

[redartbmud] 08/3/2017 16:46

EI

Apart from macro considerations, I understand that Shell 'moved the price' by playing around with forward contracts a while ago. Never say never, but I haven't a clue how to predict it before the event. There are so many variables that are the old chestnuts that are regularly dragged out - Middle East volatility, shale, Russia, Trump, US rates, alternative energy sources, Europe, bank debt, Brexit, China etc. No particular order.

red

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 16:39

red, was trying to think what could cause some short term volatility,
and crude was pretty much my best guess, could not find that many reasons.

The French elections further out, possibly, if Marine performs better
than expected in the first round.

[redartbmud] 08/3/2017 16:35

EI

Crude dip would not surprise me. It has has a good run.
One fact, of interest, that I picked up recently - Refineries have to test and assess each delivery of shale oil. Apparently, the contaminants are different each time and they have to amend production to suit. Supplies from established 'normal' fields are consistent, so don't pose the same problems. On that basis, the cost of refining shale oil must be more expensive, but I have no idea by how much. Just an interesting snippet that may be useful in the future.
Source Jim Cramer - The muppet sounding presenter who jumps around like a rocket that has just taken off for outer space. He does have great knowledge and form though.

red

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 16:33

DLG, or perhaps not buying at all!, if I am calling it incorrectly,
forget to add that bit ).

Had another 1,000 just before the close.


LOOK a little fortunate with my timing.

Someone asked me last night on the LOOK board what I thought might happen today,
replied, an open Up with some excitement, then may be profit taking during the day.
Pretty much to script. Does not often happen that way in fairness.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 16:20

DLG got down to 335.25 this morning, continued to add today.

Lots of nice negative and pretty much risible comment which I hoped for,
one of my larger holdings now and lower would suit short term
Some are waiting for a possible XD dip to buy/add, that may be the better strategy.


Crude lower, mentioned it this morning as just had an inkling a drop was on the way.

[redartbmud] 08/3/2017 16:17

EI

I held Isat a while ago ie. Few years. Sold when they hit headwinds. I didn't see the dip until it had recovered to around 660p - 680p. In the end I didn't pursue my interest as I hadn't got any feel for the business. Somehow I always see it as a risky business, but am never sure why. I did read loses post - after the event!

BRSN - good luck, you may will have found a good entry point.

I cannot look myself in the eye over Kaz and Dty. Naive but I will not beat myself up.
In and out of Sse today for a small tickle. That has restored my equilibrium.

red

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 15:57

red, tbh it looked to me like retracing some of the pop on results,
as think I mentioned, and may still happen.


Bought a very small amount of BRSN, unsure on this, may be best to stay clear.

ISAT is a miss, Loses said to me it looked value a couple of weeks ago
and was not brave enough to buy.

BRSN is only 100 shares for now, hardly worth it.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2017 15:33

VTC catching a bid.

[petersinthemarket] 08/3/2017 15:27

In The Times yesterday:

''a global glut of oil could turn into a shortage within three years unless billions of dollars worth of new investments are made in the industry, the International Energy Agency said yesterday''.

''...supplies of oil until 2020 appear comfortable but after that it predicted a rapid fall in new supply growth...''

There is more stuff along the same lines but I cannot be bothered to type it all out unless someone particularly wants it.

O/T: Can anyone recommend some decent ocr software, preferably free, and preferably not delivered full of malware. As a long-time dedicated epson fan, I am on my third epson v500 scanner. I am almost positive they used to be bundled with ocr software but this one wasn't.
ta, pete

[redartbmud] 08/3/2017 14:05

Hydrus

I think that you are the sensible one. Your assessment is spot on, they would appear to be going ex-growth for the time being. As you say, it is a service that will always be required, so there is some potential there. Having just used the local independent, for my late Aunt's funeral, that the family has always used, I was disappointed with the quality of the service. Furthermore, there is far more front and spin than substance.

I should have sold at £24.48 for a smart profit that would have bought a drink in the pub.
My little foray is for only 100 shares, so it will not break the bank. It will allow me into the AGM and therefore ask a few questions of management. For now it appears to be going from bad to worse. I misjudged the angst that the flat/lower returns has created. Perhaps I should have taken into account the recent market reaction to under performance that has seen share prices savaged.

Naive from Nuneaton.

red

red

[apad] 08/3/2017 13:39

Had look at Dignity.
Seemed similar to the "take over your dentist" and "take over your estate agent" movements.
Seems to work in the first instance but consumes a lot of capital and then runs up against the quality small businesses that don't want to sell up and can outcompete the chain on service and price.
Recently organised a funeral through a business run by a husband and wife - recommended by the local vicar. Can't imagine a chain competing.
FWIW
apad