Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 05/3/2017 08:02

I took a trial subscription out, H.
But I wasn't interested in all the filter stuff so the subscription was a bit steep. Good stuff though. Not sure about the delay.

At the moment I am trying to focus on the reports. I use some cash flow data (below), but am not sure what else to track. I'ver rejected PER. Maybe I should record interest separately as it's a measure of debt.

This approach has the advantage that I can assess the rns as soon as it comes out.
apad


ABC
Price 878 767 754 607 516 464
2017 (curr) 2016 (int) 2016 2015 (int) 2015 2014 (int)
Fiscal Year Ends 5-Mar-17 31-Dec-16 30-Jun-16 31-Dec-15 30-Jun-15 31-Dec-14
Shares Issued 204 203 202 201 201
Net Operating Cash Flow 47.3 20.7 43.0 18.4
Investing Cash Flow (21.54) (13.11) (16.58) (2.93)
Free Cash Flow to the Firm 25.8 7.6 26.4 15.5
Free Cash Flow per share (pence) 12.7 12.7 3.8 13.1 7.7
Free Cash Flow Yield 1.45% 0.00% 1.69% 0.62% 2.54% 1.66%

[hydrus] 05/3/2017 07:38

Stockopedia APAD - subscription fee though

[apad] 04/3/2017 11:20

Can anyone advise about a skeleton of financial data to hold about a share, and maybe a source?
I have access to Morningstar, but when new results come out I would like to have half a dozen or so key metrics to look at.
I get confused about different data sources giving different numbers too!
Can't do anything like the Duke of York site though!
apad

[redartbmud] 04/3/2017 11:12

I might be in the nick for tax evasion should HMRC investigate my indiscretion.
Somehow I managed to reverse the numbers on a few sales in 2010/11.
I was searching for a Pool figure that should have been on file, but somehow wasn't, so I ended up going back to my archived paper CGT Returns.
Inadvertently, I have switched cost and proceeds on a few disposals. Maybe best to leave sleeping dogs lie.

Distressed from Dartmoor?

Eating out at lunchtime, no clearing away and washing up.

red

[hydrus] 04/3/2017 10:54

Small caps are of little interest to most fund managers. If you have a £500m fund then what's the point in trying to buy 10% of a £25m company. Even if it ten bags you get a paltry return of 5% on your fund. A £50m company isn't much better. Therefore small caps are under researched, giving private investors an advantage.However small caps will likely get hammered more in a bear market but if one has the stomach to hold on and not sell then the volatility is irrelevant. I am a small cap investor looking for very high, profitable and cash positive growth. These companies can offer excellent returns when coupled with high quality management, typically where management have a large stake in the business. Like APAD if I find these characteristics in a larger company I'll invest. AMZN for example is in my portfolio and has been for some time. We all make mistakes e.g. Crawshaw for me last year. The trick is learning from them I suppose.

[lauders] 04/3/2017 10:36

ps
A decent market setback would be most welcome. I'm having to pay too much for class acts!

Perhaps save those dividends for when that actually takes place APAD? Seems like a few are saying the upward momentum is going to stop for one reason or another in the not too distant future. Whether they are correct is another matter but then your dividend income will just become all the more to take advantage when the time comes ;-)

red - Small caps are the way to go for now. When the correction takes place will they remain so? Perhaps consider FFWD ;-) Not being serious in case you miss the wink at the end!

[apad] 04/3/2017 10:23

I'm more story-oriented, red.

This has steered me towards smaller caps, but far from exclusively. ABC is now a 1.8billion company, an easy story to write my compulsory one paragraph statement about.
RDSB dropping crazy Artic drilling and buying BG assets.
BOO run by joint CEOs - designer plus ragman- with the High St. under existential threat.

Combined with 'buy the dip' & 'run when the story changes or is wrong' works for me.

Small caps, when they take off, can really rocket in a short time, of course, and this has contributed to the shape of my portfolio, but I don't have a 'policy' of small caps. It is more that my investing techniques have led to my top 3 shares being on AIM, but they did a lot of growing on their own.

This is all very different from when I started out and looked for successful investing techniques. Now, my approach owes nothing to the domain literature, which adopts the usual 'science' model of the application of general principles. Rather it comes from a craft model - praxis rather than poesis. This is why discourse with other practitioners has value, and another bloody book on investing principles doesn't.

The QTX/TRAK case study is a great example of how management can bookend the spectrum in small caps doing the same thing!

apad

ps
A decent market setback would be most welcome. I'm having to pay too much for class acts!

[redartbmud] 04/3/2017 09:37

APAD

I have come round to thinking that small cap is the way to go.
Larger caps are researched to death and the tintins continue to get it wrong far too often. One minute company A is flavour of the month and then there is the big switch to company B. It doesn't help if you are in company A.
Too many large caps are in heavily regulated sectors and are bond proxies.
Being cynical, I wonder how much vanity exists at the top of the large caps, and question the motives of the boards.
Billions are wasted on futile share buybacks. Canute failing to push back the tide.
They can be slow to react to changes in circumstance.
The current economic climate gives them little opportunity for meaningful growth.
Small caps have more entrepreneurial drive.
Relatively small business wins can be big to a small cap.
Top management is closer to the operation of the business and the customer.

Just a few thoughts.
It is important to select the right horse!

red

[che7win] 04/3/2017 09:00

Second tier banks are on fire, Ald results were good.Then SHAW receives a bid, good read across for OSB and ALD next week.

[apad] 04/3/2017 08:54

ps
FARN is up 60% - I think I'll stick to roulette!

[apad] 04/3/2017 08:45

FWIW
The only part time, buy to let, person I have met, who is very successful, told me that the secret to her success is that she only buys properties that have some special characteristic, e.g. associated with some water (Milton Keynes), in a sought after village, or whatever.
Obvious really, but a lot of folks buy houses on big estates, or where there is plenty of similar stuff around. Just like shares, you have to pay for a class act.
A neighbour rented a cracking house on a small sought after estate to a seemingly safe tenant and it transmogrified into three chaps who were selling very posh cars as if they were private sales. They left owing lots of rent and trashed the place. There is clearly a skill in choosing tenants. Rental agents have been useless whenever there is a problem.

H, I've been running my youngest daughter's ISA since the 13 Oct. last year and she is 25% up, my elder daughter's I have been running since the 27th May 2015 and she is 65% up. I feel a lot safer in a well researched small(er) cap than many a big company. IC recommended AZN as a safe big cap for an ISA yesterday. In my view it is a very high risk investment - but the real point is that neither the IC or me knows, or can make a decent judgement.
I agree that with large funds it is almost guaranteed that they will move with the market as a whole - what else can they do?

Paul Scott has gone wet for RBG and driven the price up significantly, interesting article. Anybody have a view? He is experienced in retail and was good on CAKE when it was young.

I'lll have another £500 at the end of the month, red - but it is the day before PTSG's FY :-)

ABC interim on Monday (3rd largest holding (12%), gulp).

YTD portfolio performance is +15%, portfolio yield is 2.4%, current yield of holdings is 1.1%.

Have a great w'end folks.

apad

[tudes100] 03/3/2017 23:54

Re HTG, Black Rock have been building a position since June of last year, have gone from under 5% to 12%.

[hydrus] 03/3/2017 23:09

'Some reporters and fund managers in the business section of The Times today congratulating themselves on giving their customers fabulous returns. Typically they were reporting a doubling of invested capital over a 10yr period.'I saw that Peter. Completely concur with your thoughts. In my view small cap stocks provide an opportunity for private investors to achieve far superior returns. Needs stomach though as lots of volatility, which professional equate to risk for some bizarre reason.

[redartbmud] 03/3/2017 22:05

tlatsatt

Letting is not on the agenda, and it will remain that way.
Personal choice.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 03/3/2017 20:50

The garages formed the core of the new enlarged building.. we didnt have an up and over door as a window lol

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 03/3/2017 20:47

It is worth thinking about Red.
It also seems to be bash landlord time.
Fell very sorry for yhe many buy to let landlords that have been royaly kicked in the guts by the new tax system.

Unfortunately property is well and truely becoming politicised. Very dangerous when considering our politicians are capable of anything really.

Would you ever consider faulty towers being a holiday let. Even couple of months a year?

We stayed in a lovely converted garage in limington once. 'Something cottage' was nice actually.. lady had two each around 500-600 per week depending on time of year.
Easy money for her.

[redartbmud] 03/3/2017 20:33

tlatsatt

You can never predict taxes, but what about penal Council Tax on rented houses as a possibility.
I am expecting to be clobbered on Fawlty Towers in the near future.
Somebody has to pay for elderly/infirm care. It should be Central Govt, but they are lumping it on Local Authorities.
Maggie tried to switch it to the individual, and not the house, but it was abject failure. It can't be tried again anytime soon.

Just a thought.

red

Yes it sure was a good video.

red

[petersinthemarket] 03/3/2017 20:24

>Red - brill youtube - def worth a watch - thanks - pete

[petersinthemarket] 03/3/2017 20:22

Some reporters and fund managers in the business section of The Times today congratulating themselves on giving their customers fabulous returns. Typically they were reporting a doubling of invested capital over a 10yr period.
This might beat the banks for those without the skill or inclination to do it themselves but I would have been more impressed if they had suggested doubling over 5yrs which would at least represent healthy annual returns in double figures.
Even then, IMO, there are several on here capable of beating that.
pete

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 03/3/2017 20:14

Thanks for your thoughts guys re BTLs.

Modform. Ithink if we buy right and compound there is a good investment case esp within a limited co.

Plus something tangable is the goal.

Also once we get a couple we can remortgage and hopefully release some funds for more ad infinitum.


Well thats the plan.... :)

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 03/3/2017 20:08

Future combat troops right there. Enjoyed that vid thanks Red.

[redartbmud] 03/3/2017 19:41

Worth a watch.



red

[modform] 03/3/2017 19:05

Stock markets beats buy to let by miles, even if you include the house price rise, but good luck in your new venture