Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 26/1/2017 14:16

Nevertheless, it looks loik I wuz rite guv with my snap analysis.
The share price is falling gracefully.
I am holding on, fru fik an fin for now.

I do think the business is premium but has average financial management.

red

[apad] 26/1/2017 12:37

Reflections.

In approx. 2009 SSE announced that it was going for windmills. I spat the dummy and sold the lot.

Where to put it? RSW was bombed out after staff had been on a 3 day week and I knew the company. My view was that it is a jewel in the crown (a bit like ARM :-(

So, I put the lot in RSW. On a dip I increased once. It is now my fourth largest holding.

I think this was one of the best investment decisions I have ever made.

My holding has a massive capital appreciation and is a major income stock at the same time. Spitting the dummy can be a good idea!

Nothing has changed in the way RSW is managed and its core business is unassailable.

I am not inclined to play with my holding and to back my judgement against that of RSW's directors. I think this is because of this historical context, but it is also because 'special' companies are not that common.
Rejecting them and moving on to the latest pretty girl on the dance floor is generally not a good idea - in investment, as in life.

apad

[linhur] 26/1/2017 12:11

RSW

Red

Spot on with your analysis of interim results.

Too much money being spent on far off places which will be cost painful with sterling at current levels. Looks like too much being spent on sales/marketing with no results as yet.

Thank goodness for currency tailwind as a result of Brexit or RSW share price would be under 25 today.

Not happy about no news on 3d printing. Sounds as though it is too difficult for RSW as they are not quick enough to capture the new model price premium in this market.

Cash pile starting to run down. Perhaps time to do a bit of pruning if prospects for the near future (2 years) are not bright.

regards
Linhur

[masurenguy] 26/1/2017 10:32

Good trading update this morning. I made a small top up @57.4p to an initial speculative entry position that I took at 51p in December. Maybe todays investor presentation in the City might bring this stock onto more peoples radar.

Recent brief overview video presentation from CEO Jerry Randall.

[qs99] 26/1/2017 09:36

given progress appears to be on track, not sure why it is not nearer a £1 where it was a year ago! Markets eh? Either way they are doing the right thing IMO and value as always "will out"...DYOR

[qs99] 26/1/2017 09:26

just been reading broker update this morning and they are talking very bullishly IMO about this RNS and progress. DYOR and IMO etc etc, but this morning is a good sign and market likes it so far...gla

[redartbmud] 26/1/2017 09:09

Voting for Christmas then!

I did see it and had a double take.


Off to see my dentist, then blood test at hospital.
Back to Tax Returns later.

Oh Joy! Hey Ho.

red

[apad] 26/1/2017 08:38

This sort of thing, red.

"We have also established a new subsidiary in Turkey to expand our marketing, sales, service and distribution infrastructure."

Turkey!

apad

[redartbmud] 26/1/2017 08:28

ps

Agreed, but where is the cash going?

red

[redartbmud] 26/1/2017 08:20

Their policy for the last few year has been for an interim dividend of 12.5p and an increased final.
I suspect that we are more likely to see profit c£90-£95m for the year, straight down the middle.
Healthcare revenues might go up, but they have to recover from a £6.0m reported loss.

PBT 2012 £86.0m 2013 £79.1m 2014 £70.1m 2015 £144.1m (Exceptional) 2016 £80.0m now restated to £85.6

Market likes them though, but they are tightly held, so moves are over exaggerated.
Above events.

red

[apad] 26/1/2017 08:13

ps
We're a miserable pair, red :-)

[apad] 26/1/2017 08:08

In addition (my brackets).
2015 was exceptional. Revenue forecast to be about 50% above 2014.
However, pre tax profit to be about the same, so cost base to continue increasing. Hence no divi increase in prospect.
apad


"the Board remains confident in the future prospects of the Group. We continue to anticipate growth in both revenue and profit in this financial year and expect full year revenue to be in the range of £500m (2014 355m 2015 495m) to £530m and Profit before tax to be in the range of (2015 144m 2014 96m) £85m to £105m.

Healthcare revenue prospects for the second half are positive with a strong order book in each of our neurological, spectroscopy and medical dental products lines."

[lanzarote666] 26/1/2017 07:57

Record revenues up 57% and maiden EBITDA profits.

[redartbmud] 26/1/2017 07:56

Rsw

A middle of the road outcome.
The half year to December 2015 was poor.
The 9% favourable currency growth in revenue is about right, with underlying 12% a little disappointing.
Metrology is the driver and looks to be going well despite low growth in the world economy. Far East recovery continuing but advances across all markets, which is a positive.
Healthcare is proving to be a bridge too far. How much longer can they justify the indulgence. Perhaps it is time to sell it on to the big boys.
No mention of 3D printing - disappointing.
Cost base increasing yet again.
Capex They continue to develop and improve infrastructure for the future, as per their long term business model.
Same comment R&D.
Disappointing cash figure at the period end.
No mentions of margins.

Overall the operating profit of £35.6m is disappointing. I don't see the justification for £29 share price.

red

[redartbmud] 25/1/2017 23:00

APAD

No, I didn't I have spent a long time trying to forecast my potential tax liability for 2016/17 which currently looks horrendous, based on the new tax regulation for dividends.
After reviving myself with smelling salts around lunchtime, I looked at a few scenarios that unfortunately didn't provide a satisfactory solution.
I have still not submitted my return as I wanted to reduce the payment on account.
I am not sure that I would have wrapped my head fully around the changes, but being ill for the earlier part of the year, when I would have been looking, is going to be painfully expensive.
I might go for a VCT as the solution, if I complete before 5 April 2017.

In the end I didn't have time to dig out figures on Rsw. Looking at today's jump, either somebody already knows the results will be at the top end or alternatively, they have been marked up so that they can be marked down by £1.50/£2.00 at tomorrow's open.

I trust that your bread turned out satisfactorily.

Damned dental appointment early tomorrow. That is bad planning. It looks like I will miss some of the fun.

At least Clln has recovered a tad.

Hey Ho

red

[apad] 25/1/2017 22:45

QTX
Fleet (bespoke) rather than Insurance (commodity) focus makes perfect sense. As does USA opportunity (5x size of market).
Mrs. Market not interested.
Hey Ho. Just have to accept the special divi and wait for the penny to drop.

apad

[apad] 25/1/2017 22:29

Hi mod,

Weird stuff 'aint it.
I love "Assets under influence". I got some of them, 'cept I do it for myself :-)

Portfolio up 4% YTD :-)

Did you top-slice RSW, red?

apad

[modform] 25/1/2017 20:06

Apad, you seem to have done something to FARN, hardly any shares traded, but all of a sudden there are a few buyers, very illiquid. But it can't get as illiquid as HW., an impressive set of results yesterday but it only takes a few k worth of shares to lift the share price.

[redartbmud] 25/1/2017 10:18

RSW

The indicators are showing overbought.

I am considering a sale with aview to a buy back tomorrow.

Dithering from Dundee.

Hey ho

red

[redartbmud] 25/1/2017 10:11

APAD

I was just looking at Rsw.

13.Oct
In a trading update for the three months ended 30 September, the company said revenue was £112.8m, up from £98.2m in the same period a year ago, with growth in all regions, particularly the Far East and Europe.

Pre-tax profit in the first quarter came in at £14.1m - including a currency benefit of £3.7m - compared to £16.3m last year.

27 July
I am pleased to report our 2016 annual results, with revenue for the year ended 30th June 2016 of £436.6m compared to £494.7m for last year. As highlighted in our Interim results, we had a number of large orders from Far East customers in the consumer electronics markets during the previous year which generated exceptional growth in our metrology business sector. Adjusting for these large orders and restating revenue at last year's exchange rates resulted in an underlying revenue growth of 4% for the year and 6% at actual exchange rates.
Geographically, revenue in the Far East was £195.3m compared to £257.7m last year, but with an underlying growth of 12% when excluding the large orders. Revenue in Europe was £112.1m (2015: £103.1m), in the Americas was £92.2m (2015: £96.3m) and in the UK was £23.2m (2015: £25.5m).

The Group's profit before tax for the year was £80.0m compared to £144.2m last year.

Currency will be a good tailwind.
Will the Far East have recovered to higher sales levels?
The year end £80m profit was modest and an improvement would not be difficult to achieve.
However, at C£29 per share, I suspect that it is well up with events.
You might see a pull pack from that level tomorrow.
I have almost given up anticipating what may happen to the share price on announcement of results.

Clln will be the death of me.

I hope that your dough is rising.

red

[apad] 25/1/2017 09:53

What's the point of temptation if you don't give in to it, dacian :-)
Seriously, it's a by-product of looking at the business first - thanks be to the Web!
If I can't make sense of it and see why it's a little bit special I don't look at the numbers.

Market anticipating a lot from RSW, red. I'm sure we can disappoint.
Shouldn't you be buying a few CLLN at these levels?

I should be top-slicing FEVR, but the one time I did it, it paused for breath and powered ahead. Gin and Elderflower Tonic is a good combination, and malaria is pretty much under control.

apad

[redartbmud] 25/1/2017 09:45

dacian

Absolutely spot on.
Small caps can defy gravity on the way up, and vastly more so on the way down.
There are many rampers around for small caps and they need to be watched.
Touch and barge poles are words that spring to mind.

APAD always puts forward an argument for, and reasons behind his trades. Furthermore, he puts his money where his mouth is.
On that basis, you go into them with your eyes wide open.

red

[redartbmud] 25/1/2017 09:17

falia

Thanks, but negatives are of a concern here:

(ShareCast News) - Chinese seafood processor and producer Aquatic Foods sliced its interim dividend and is mulling the full year payout due to current difficult market conditions, though margins had stabilised.
While volumes increased, margins were well down on last year due to what management attributed to the slowdown of economic growth in China, a highly competitive market and adverse impacts from foreign exchange.

Revenue in the six months ended 30 June decreased by 5.6% to RMB 419m (£48.3m).

It does look like the September quarter showed some small improvement.

From H-L the share price is up 17.86% over the week. Spread 14p - 19p

I think that is enough for me.

I will pass.

red