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Vedanta Share Discussion Threads
Showing 8576 to 8596 of 8600 messages
|Think u a better chance off glen bidding for Rio than Rio bidding for Ved|
|GLEN is up 2% in HK. lets see if VED follows. not a deramp as holding lots here just not as many as yesterday. up 2% and i'll be breakeven (i think).|
|did anyone notice the gap down at the open? share price opened at 695.00p down 13.50p! on the prev. close 708.50p. other commodity stocks like Glencore and Kaz didn't gap down..
i reduced my risk here by selling 25% of my holding at small gain (1% before fees, 0.5% after fees). i got the day's high when i sold at 711.00p. i need about another 15p gain on the share price to break even. i'll reduce again tomorrow if theres a decent gain.
does anyone know how much of VED's business is iron ore? i ask because that particular commodity is in a bear market.|
|yeah but technowiz wait until you see tomoro...big catch up time..copper price well up tonight 1.3%|
|errrrr VED down today, GLEN and KAZ both up. why? is VED more focused on iron ore which is falling?|
|like night follows day,ved will follow glen and kaz...always has,always will|
|I'm not sure how Goldman can call Vedanta a leveraged name as on this next years earnings - which is at the beginning of next month it has an estimated leverage of 1 .14 and a enterprise value of about 1.6 ebitda which is insanely low!!!|
|I want Rio to put a bid in for Ved that would be lovely.|
|GS still has a price target of 9.50|
Goldman selling the miners this morning.
Anglo American PLC (AAL:LSE): Last: 1,112, down 17 (-1.51%), High: 1,118, Low: 1,099, Volume: 3.09m
BHP Billiton PLC (BLT:LSE): Last: 1,208, down 6.5 (-0.54%), High: 1,219, Low: 1,189, Volume: 2.82m
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO:LSE): Last: 3,102, down 10.5 (-0.34%), High: 3,107, Low: 3,071, Volume: 1.14m
Goldman only turned positive on the sector in November 2016, which one could argue was rather late in the rebound.
Though still managed to get them a 22% return.
As in, until mid February when it reversed.
· Tightening bias emerging from China - 1Q/March data has shown the Chinese economy to be performing well and while the immediate reaction is to see this as validation of a bullish outlook for miners. But a tightening bias has emerged in China rates (the 7/14 day repo rate has inched higher) which has inflected sentiment
· Tougher comps, PPI likely to fade - Yoy comps for key data (e.g. IP, exports) will become tougher heading into 2H. A fading PPI is likely to see the following: 1) behavior of commodity consumers change, i.e. they are likely to move to destocking and 2) A higher PPI is unlikely to result in a big capex drive given supply rationalisation is likely to continue in those sectors.
· Iron-ore worst positioned - We see IO as having the worst outlook: 1) steel production is running at a high level and 2) exporting excess production could provide challenging with new tariffs in place; and 3) together credit conditions are seeing downward pressure on China steel prices. This together with 1) high IO inventory levels and 2) further production from global seaborne producers and China domestic will likely see IO prices lower.
· Copper – long positioning a risk - The significant speculative position/inventory build post the US election seems to be unwinding. Indicators of physical demand are inconclusive, we believe this could persist, putting further pressure on commodity prices.
· Aluminium – Remains best positioned; China has started to follow up on their promised capacity cuts
Argument here is that folk still don't like miners.
We believe market will be unwilling to pay anything more than trough multiples and will likely trade the momentum which is likely to be negative over the near term.
So, sell nearly everything.
· Downgrade BHP to Sell: 50% of company’s FY18E EBITDA is derived from iron ore/coal, the outlook for which has turned negative in our view. With earning trajectory negative on GS estimates we see BHP as trading at 7x FY19 EBITDA.
· We add Norsk-Hydro to the Conviction List: aluminium, in our view, remains best positioned commodity, as China manages supply.
· Downgrade Anglo American to Neutral: iron ore prices are set to weaken and we forecast met coal to retreat to ~$150 / t pst cyclone Debbie. We see increasing uncertainty in SA presenting risk around its spin-off plan.
· Downgrade Antofagasta to Sell: Anto remains expensive on GSe trading at
8x EV/EBITDA 2017-19E and we see near-term risks to the copper price if the reflation trade continues to lose steam.
· We remove Vedanta from the Conviction List as in a bearish market, levered name like Vedanta is likely to underperform peers.
· We downgrade Nyrstar to Neutral: a lack of catalysts and pricing power drive this.
· We downgrade Kumba to Sell: iron ore prices are starting to come under pressure and uncertainty in SA puts the spin-off plan at risk.
|yeah but at the end of the day its the truth tradejunkie....just that people find the truth hard to take for some reason|
|volsung, that made me laugh have a tick up.|
|It was all built on a premise that there would be a boom after Trump was elected. Now the only 'boom' expected is in Korea.|
|if you look at the low points of kaz 66p,glencore 70p and ved 200p it seems to me ved has been hammered very unfairly..kaz is still around 6-7 bagger,glen 4-5 bagger and ved only a 3-4 bagger from their low points|
|LW425, all commodity stacks have been falling though..|
|The £3s may be revisited here as Trump trade goes through crisis phase over summer then fill your boots time ...|
|I sold at £10.10|
|Possible reasons for fall.
1. Cairn shareholders selling or forward selling or market anticipating same of the 'ordinary share' part of the deal. They may be minded to dump the one ordinary share and keep the 4 preference shares. I probably would do.
2. Shorter anticipating the above and shorting.
3. Softening of metal prices.
4. Sterling strength.
5. Recent Incidents.
6. Trump factor, possible nuclear attack on Seoul by the North Koreans.
7. Current holders anticipating points 1 to 6 above and selling.
That's a toxic mix which may take many months to work through.
I think that covers it but any further contributions welcome.|
|Roll yer dice back to £11?|