Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[peddlers] 17/11/2020 12:35

It's down two-tenths of a percent.
Hardly a worry is it? Especially since the market is tanking today and Vectura is not.
There were several large buy orders at 102.
Including mine,
Let's wait and see eh
Good luck

P

[a1ord53] 17/11/2020 10:05

Robots started this week selling down. No buyers ! No buyers !
Since first oral arguments on October 5 th no records in federal circuits court of appeal in Washington DC at all, although were a lot of oral arguments sessions in court after 5 th of October - but no records. Very strange imo.
Any ideas whats going on in court ?

[peddlers] 16/11/2020 09:14

Polaris - I am looking to double my money on Vectura.
At this rate it could take a while.

[fhmktg] 13/11/2020 08:18

Inhaled interferon showing promise in reducing Covid severity.One for VEC?Multiple sclerosis drug 'halves risk of severe Covid symptoms'

[peddlers] 12/11/2020 13:09

Polaris - Good Post.

The thing with people like you and I (people having produced scientific research papers using critical analysis) is that we become so pernickety about every detail.
We need to.

The market as you know is full of emotion and Bias, something experienced researchers know how to take account of. We jimmy from the pub probably doesn't give a stuff about the detail. Sometimes light exposure can become a good tipping point for shares that are undervalued.

I wonder what conclusions you have drawn from your critical reflections on the data surrounding Vectura?
Do you think it is going to go up or do you think it is going to go down?

Ped

[diesel] 12/11/2020 11:40

Good post Polaris, no mention of management though, and while they are still relevantly new, they will need to demonstrably show their worth at some point, for me to stay invested.

[fhmktg] 12/11/2020 11:35

Socrates would be proud of you!

[polaris] 12/11/2020 10:52

I'm a scientist. My job is to poke holes in things, question assumptions and make sure that things have a sound fundamental basis. Mostly, that is directed towards PhD and Post docs but you get the idea. Why do you think that? What is the rational basis? Can you defend it under open (sometimes confrontational) questioning? Some people think it over-analysis (see TSLA board for an example) but oversimplifying complex questions leads to rubbish.

Before going further, let me be clear, i agree with most of your statements being positive for VEC, although many lack necessary clarifications and placement in the wider context.

1. PE ratio C.15
As VEC cannot really call itself a small pharma now then is 15 good? Current trailing 12 month P/E of FTSE 100 is 14.39, Schiller PE is 13.22 (up to 30/6/20) and the mean for the S&P over a number of years is 15.85. What's in a number without context? The relevance of the P/E depends on the sector, growth rate and maturity of the company.

2. PEG ratio of 0.5
Using the adjusted EBITDA then yes. If you only take the headline numbers the VEC is not currently profit making and so the PEG ratio is irrelevant. Losses are losses. Of course, looking below the surface shows that the losses are caused by write-downs arising from the SKP/VEC merger and are non-cash items. It just means the merger destroyed a lot of shareholder value for those invested at the time. It is passing through the balance sheet now but has zero impact on the current business. With that extra information, the underlying PEG is relevant and the lower the number the better.

3. Increased revenues forecasted
Actually, for FY2020 the forecasts are for generally flat revenues. Any increase will be down to one offs from the GSK litigation as various milestone/royalty revenues will cease after FY2020. As long as the new products make headway then i agree that revenue growth will return from next year. Level yet to be clear.

4. Growing Sector
Which sector and why? If pharma, then just because the sector is growing does not predicate that VEC will grow. VEC have also undergone a transformation into a base CDMO organisation. What is the average P/E of that sector? Are VEC a reasonable sized player? Can they leverage, in the short term, any advantage? That really isn't clear at the moment.

5. Significant free cash flow
Absolutely agree. Market has overlooked that for a few years!

5. No recent dilution (the opposite in fact).
In itself, not a positive or negative. You might want to take a look at the management options package though! ;-)

6. Large EPS growth
On adjusted EBITDA yes. This is only the case if you strip out the non cash items, as per point 2.

7. Possible takeover target
Seems to have been that for more than 2 years now, yet not a single actual bid...

8. Partnering with Hikma
It's nice to have a large company as a partner but not always positive. SKP/VEC have that with GSK after all, over a number of years and a number of marketed products. Yet, here we are, in the middle of litigation with the same company. Hikma will be useful to leverage any approved products into market with their connections/sales force. A small company doesn't have that alone.

9. Analysts near-term forecast C. 130p
They've been wrong for years and will no doubt continue to be wrong. No-one was interested in VEC at 70 p, despite the fact the prospects were pointing to 100+ p. Take a look at posts in late 2018 to early 2019 on this board. Suddenly, the share price is going up so analysts slap a higher target on it. Most analysts are barking dogs. They have no idea what they are barking for half the time!

10. Likely be upgraded
Why? On what basis? This is a combination of the previous points and assumes a great deal. The more assumptions you make, the less likely the theory is to be correct.

Summary - without context, any set of statements can be ripped apart, even by someone who fundamentally agrees with you on the prospects of the company, which i do.

Critical analysis is a fundamental part of my training, which i bring to my investment choices. Doesn't mean i always get it right. No-one always gets it right. If anyone claims that, i know they are talking BS or have only ever made 1-2 trades in their lives and believe they are infallible.


Yes, i have a day of A/L today. I've also had a vat of coffee this morning! ;-)

[peddlers] 12/11/2020 09:12

Good morning all.

Polaris - post 10406 relates to reported Numbers. No hunch.
I research the fundamentals before I buy or sell.

While, admittedly I don't understand the intricacies of medicine I do understand business.
Especially since I advise large organisations how to reduce their costs (waste) and improve their productivity.

Ped

[best1467] 11/11/2020 20:09

Pacira $41.7 sales for October in the current circumstances impressive looks nailed on for £32 million 2021

[srpactive] 11/11/2020 14:19

p

No I think it was levelled at me, which I accept.

I have been in skpepharma for ever but virtually forgot about them until
the lockdown and I increased.

Sorry polaris.

[peddlers] 11/11/2020 14:03

That sounds an awful lot like Peddlers keep your trap shut

[srpactive] 11/11/2020 13:42

Okay, thank you.

[peddlers] 11/11/2020 13:19

Not sure. I think a few of the holders here were dialed into the proceedings.
Maybe someone could provide insight

[srpactive] 11/11/2020 12:00

p

What do you think our chances are of getting the $200m
from gsk?

tia

[peddlers] 11/11/2020 11:52

LOL thanks.

[srpactive] 11/11/2020 11:22

Morning, just.

[peddlers] 11/11/2020 09:06

Good Morning all.

[peddlers] 10/11/2020 12:44

Reasons to buy Vectura

PE ratio C.15
PEG ratio of 0.5
Increased revenues forecasted
Growing Sector
significant free cash flow
No recent dilution (the opposite in fact).
Large EPS growth
Possible takeover target
Partnering with Hikma
Analysts near-term forecast C. 130p
Likely be upgraded

Ped

[peddlers] 10/11/2020 12:27

Very pleased to see how Vectura is holding up.

Hopefully we will see some buying pressure moving into December

Ped

[peddlers] 10/11/2020 08:11

Good Morning Volvo, Welcome on board

[volvo] 09/11/2020 16:13

Back in here today with 20k for the run up to Advair approval and GSK deciding to buy VEC out.

[a1ord53] 09/11/2020 15:37

Just 250k Vectura been traded at 103,2 p
Looks like we have seller