Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[polaris] 26/11/2018 12:32

Sorry best1467, but that is just picking a random number. If you can show any justification why the share price might reach sub 50p then i would take it at face value or have a sensible discussion.

For me, if GSK win each of the cases then i would say 2-3p per decision against (tops). A decision for VEC will be worth more depending on the terms of the decision, particularly if the one for us is in the US, where VEC are also seeking damages and costs.

Worst case scenario if litigation goes against VEC in both cases is the low 60s, IMO. The royalties for the VEC IP are already being withheld and the UK litigation to get the 'arrow' judgement will be against further necessity to license patent classes from VEC on end of current agreement, AFAIK in 2019. Potential hit to royalties is the £9m plus any legal costs.

The real kick in the teeth today is that VR475 is a complete writeoff. I thought the bar was high but that the product would still be marketable. That assumption on my part was proved wrong and wipes £80-100M off my valuation of the product portfolio, hence the drop we see today as it will be discounted to some extent, as not yet launched.

SP weakness may also flush a predator out to punt a lowball offer that the II may well take up to avoid further uncertainty. That would be in the 100p area as things stand. I would think quite a few IIs would take that.

regards,

Paul

[best1467] 26/11/2018 11:45

If we don’t get any positives from the remaining expected news we are looking at sub 50p or worse .You know it’s bad when the ever positive Polaris is reducing is stake personally I’m still prepared to hold at these levels in the hope for positive news flow in the next 12/18 months but surely this management needs to change.

[jimboyce] 26/11/2018 11:10

No wonder the FD left so quickly, he must have had an inkling about this.

[jimboyce] 26/11/2018 10:52

Now valued at not much more than they paid for SKP.

[pooroldboy55] 26/11/2018 10:08

Paul i must say am very happy not to have bought more recently ,question whats your target price now.
cheers A

[polaris] 26/11/2018 09:47

The potential market size for VR475 from a previous queston was in the region $150-300M according to VEC literature published with the HY results.

There is/will be a conference call today on the VR475 product line. This news has wiped about 10-15p off my price target long term and there may well be more short term pain to come with the 2 patent cases in the UK and US v GSK. There are also the Ph I studies on generic Stiolto with Pulmatrix for evaluation of commercial viability and the Ph IIb studies with Ablynx due before the end of the year.

[diesel] 26/11/2018 09:15

POB...it certainly knocks confidence in their judgement and abilities, and that will effect the markets view on their pipeline developments. All we need now is a judgement against us and this could really test new lows!

[pooroldboy55] 26/11/2018 08:50

Not good I wonder what this will mean to some of the other products in development ?

[polaris] 26/11/2018 08:41

Yes, that is a poor result for the Ph III Study. That's a hit on this year results and a near term product possibility gone. Whether the bar was set high or not, the lack of statistical significance in primary endpoint studies signal a dead end. A bad start to the day!

[kolosos] 26/11/2018 07:40

Financial impact: As part of the acquisition of Activaero in March 2014, Vectura recognised an intangible asset for the VR475 programme. Following the results of this study, this asset will be fully impaired in the current financial year, resulting in a negative impact on the Group's loss before tax of £40m, and loss after tax of £29m. With respect to 2019, we expect the net impact to EBITDA of revenue and R&D cost movements, to be broadly neutral, as a result of our decision to cease development of VR475. R&D guidance for 2019 will be communicated as part of a trading update early in the New Year.

[best1467] 26/11/2018 07:39

Dissaapointing but the company had already flagged a negative result with comments made recently as I said then along with other posters.
Will be very interesting to see the reaction of the share price but a would imagine 5/7% drop but who knows with the strange moments of this share especially with failure the likely outcome .

[alexchry] 26/11/2018 07:32

Not good news this morning. They did say during the last conference call that they had set the bar high which did sound like a warning of likely failure. I'm not sure how big the market would have been.

[pooroldboy55] 23/11/2018 12:49

Don't think so poss take weeks before we hear outcome.

[dp1umb] 23/11/2018 12:36

Could there be some action this afternoon??

[polaris] 22/11/2018 21:23

Thanks for that popper joe. It is all rather standard fare but interesting that VEC are the ones who have requested a jury trial. I wonder if they are trying to play the small guy v big corporation angle.

[popper joe] 22/11/2018 20:09

For those who can't sleep, here is the full complaint behind Vectura's claim against GSK for patent infringement. This is the USA one to be heard next year.

[fhmktg] 22/11/2018 11:09

According to the High Court listings, the Case has a five day 'window' beginning 19th November, so hopefully our learned friends are hard at it.

[fhmktg] 22/11/2018 10:56

Is the first case due in court this week?

[pooroldboy55] 22/11/2018 09:49

We are heading to end of year and sofar only one good RNS so not so much as news flow more like a very small drip,as i said before can see this back at 70p.Also see the court case going against us but as i'm normanly wrong who knows !!!!!! certainly not me.

[insideryou] 22/11/2018 09:29

Tedious and predictable. ??

[dp1umb] 21/11/2018 14:14

Very strange trading range today 80p 76p

[pooroldboy55] 20/11/2018 16:01

They are paying between 5 and 6% as for share price no target just think can't go much lower but hope when we get EU sorted could be back in the 70s.

[a1ord53] 20/11/2018 15:42

Poor boy , how much div you do expect and what share price Target ?
Thx a lot

[alexchry] 20/11/2018 14:11

pob55-I would not be unhappy if you were wrong, still holding around 200k, only sold to transfer from one account to another.