Vaneck Glb Moat Discussion Threads

[sir lancelot] 31/1/2003 17:17

US-Iraq : Bush - I'm ready to use nukes
31/01/2003 15:52:54

US president George W Bush has backed
the use of nuclear missiles in retalia-
tion against an attack with weapons of
mass destruction, it emerged today.
Bush signed a document stating that
America reserved the right to respond
with "overwhelming force - including
potentially nuclear weapons" if Saddam
Hussein launched an assault with chemi-
cal or biological arms.
The classified national security dir-
ective replaces the phrase "all of our
options" used in public documents, with
"nuclear weapons", to make the threat
clear.
Analysts said the change in language
indicated the Bush administration was
more willing to use nuclear missiles
than previous US governments.
For decades US has maintained a delib-
erately vague policy by using phrases
such as keeping "all options open" and
"not ruling anything in or out", in
order to avoid the word "nuclear".
White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card
said last week that the US would use
"whatever means necessary" to protect
its citizens, adding: "I am not going
to put anything on the table or off the
table."

1551 GMT Jan 31 2003

[tpaulbeaumont] 31/1/2003 17:16

Griss - my girlfriend's no winner, and she sure as hell never quits.... I always knew she was an idiot!!

[sir lancelot] 31/1/2003 17:12

US-N Korea : Satellites detect nuke moves
31/01/2003 16:32:24

Throughout January, US intelligence
has detected substantial activity at
North Korea's once shuttered nuclear
facility, a possible sign it is getting
ready to produce nuclear weapons,
officials said.
American spy satellites have detected
covered trucks apparently taking on
cargo at the nuclear storage facility
at Yongbyon, where spent nuclear fuel
rods are stored, said US officials,
speaking on condition of anonymity.
When processed, enough plutonium can be
extracted from the 8,000 rods to make
four or five nuclear weapons, US
officials have said.
It is possible - but not certain -
that the trucks seen at the plant are
loading those rods, either to be stored
elsewhere or in preparation for
processing, one official said. Another
said more people have been working at
the complex, North Koreans also have
been grading roads and plowing snow
from roads and that smoke has been
coming out of smokestacks at the
complex - signs the regime in Pyongyang
is resuming operations at the facility.
The activity is not particularly
unexpected, since the Koreans withdrew
Jan. 10 from a global anti-nuclear pact
and said they would restart the reactor
at Yongbyon to generate electricity.
But restarting it would be another
ominous step in a crisis that has been
escalating on the Korean peninsula
since October, while the Bush
administration has been preoccupied
with launching a possible war on the
other side of the world to disarm Iraq.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer
would not comment on US intelligence,
but warned Pyongyang against taking
"another provocative step" that
"further isolates North Korea from the
international community."
While there is agreement in the
intelligence community that North Korea
is gearing up at Yongbyon, there is
disagreement on how far along they are,
one official said, calling the activity
detected by spy satellites "like
circumstantial evidence."
The New York Times reported in today's
editions that intelligence analysts
have concluded North Korea could begin
producing bomb-grade plutonium by the
end of March. But one official said
that would be too soon, given the plant
has not been in operation for years.
Washington, under President Clinton,
drew up plans to bomb Yongbyon in 1994
over possible North Korean weapons
activities. The two sides defused that
crisis with an energy deal under which
the North had agreed to freeze its
nuclear facilities at Yongbyon in
return for the oil shipments and
construction of less threatening
nuclear electricity generating plants
by a consortium made up of the United
States, Japan and South Korea.
The agreement collapsed in October,
when the United States said North Korea
had admitted developing nuclear weapons
in violation of the 1994 agreement. In
response, Washington suspended the
shipments.
North Korea in turn expelled U.N.
inspectors and announced its withdrawal
from the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
US Defence Secretary Donald H.
Rumsfeld is monitoring the development,
another official said. Immersed in
planning for a possible military
campaign against Iraq, the Bush
administration has clearly shown it
wants to calm the Korea dispute even as
the North seeks to build the sense of
crisis for negotiating advantage.
In fact, one official said, because
North Korea knows well that the United
States is watching it, it is possible
that the movements of trucks and
heightened activity at Yongbyon are
staged to force Americans to the
bargaining table.
North Korea has been incensed by
President Bush's description of the
country as part of an "axis of evil"
with Iraq and Iran and has demanded
assurances it will not be attacked.
Despite the activity at Yongbyon, and
recent North Korean militant
anti-American rhetoric, its
conventional forces have not made any
major aggressive moves along the border
with South Korea recently, Pentagon
officials say.
North Korea is now moving people and
equipment as part of its usual annual
winter training, a senior defense
official said. But US military
officials have not seen any buildup of
forces or other signs that would
indicate a threatening military posture
by the reclusive communist
dictatorship, according to officials
who spoke only on condition of
anonymity.
North Korea has more than 11,000
artillery pieces - many within range of
the South Korean capital, Seoul - that
could rain between 200,000 and 300,000
shells per hour on South Korea. US
officials believe the American and
South Korean militaries could crush
North Korea, but not without the
fiercest of battles.
US officials also believe North Korea
has one or two nuclear weapons, as well
as extensive chemical and biological
weapons capabilities. The North has
missiles capable of hitting South
Korea, Japan and China.
Yesterday, North Korea called Bush's
State of the Union message this year an
"undisguised declaration of
aggression." The North pledged it "will
never allow the US to wantonly encroach
upon the sovereignty and dignity of the
(North) and destroy its system."
In his Tuesday speech, Bush called
North Korea an oppressive regime trying
to blackmail the world with its nuclear
programme.
State Department spokesman Richard
Boucher said yesterday the United
States expects the United Nations'
International Atomic Energy Agency to
schedule a meeting soon to discuss
referring the North Korea matter to the
UN Security Council.

1623 GMT Jan 31 2003

[griss] 31/1/2003 17:08

David Brent:
6. Quitters never win, winners never quit. But those who never win and never quit are idiots.

[jpeterki] 31/1/2003 16:54

short 8032

[yf23_1] 31/1/2003 16:53

short 8038

[robbie12] 31/1/2003 16:48

Up to GF's short entry zone...sounds very painful! Anyone taking the plunge?

[ian56] 31/1/2003 16:39

Anyone else get in on on Deutsche Bank (DBK).
Looks like it may be forming a bear flag targetting 35-36.
(I said I was probably a bit early at 40 - it got to 40.80 about 2 trading hours later.)

Regards,
Ian

[moregas] 31/1/2003 16:31

Goodfella,

What do you use to draw your fib levels...looks like some auto thing that you drop and drag and it fills in the numbers automatically?

[jpeterki] 31/1/2003 16:17

good fella, important question,

have i got time to go home (35 mins) or should I wait?

[felix99] 31/1/2003 16:09

DFS - i MADE A TACTICAL withdrawal at 350p . Serves me right for being gung ho this am. sizzled.

[indalo] 31/1/2003 16:02

Goodfella - The text book expanding triangle as described by Murphy shows three successively higher peaks. The pattern is completed by the violation of the second trough....It then breaks back above to around one third the way up the megaphone (where your upper trendline is now) , and then tanks straight through support.

[goodfella] 31/1/2003 15:39

It bounced off the lower trendline exactly as per my earlier forcast and is presently in a Wave E in an expanding triangle which is probably the most unpredictable wave you can get.

Currently 7955 you could see what I meant by the emotions involved by the actions this morning.


Now you have some pivot points as this has had two waves and should have another push to the upside.

Use the upper trendline as a pivot point to go short with a stop just above and the lower trendline (Arrows ) to go short with a stop just above as this wave can give false breakouts.

The ultimate rsolution of this wave is to the downside but as you can see from the expanding range it can go higher before turning down.

[chuckie egg] 31/1/2003 15:17

Well done Ian56,

I was going to follow you and short KLAC @ $35 but it seemed to show relative strength in the last 2 trading days. Ah well, maybe I should stop watching the screen and trust the charts.

[indalo] 31/1/2003 15:08

50% retrace of yesterday's decline complete....This is the sort of scary little rally that usually has me running for cover.

NOT TODAY...I will only get concerned on a decisive close above 8200.

I still think the US will end negative

[matthewa] 31/1/2003 15:02

Happy Chinese New Year fellow Shorters for those who celebrate it. FTSE is gonig upo Dont fight the trend. Off for Champers on top of the Hyatt 85 floor. Tried to take apicccie of it from the outside - amazing sight it goes into the clouds but it was too dark Doh!

[neg] 31/1/2003 14:52

Here are my comments re Findel: I am short.

The business does not generate any cash after paying interest and capital expenditure. Both at the interims and finals over the last few years the business has been financed by bank debt. Net debt has risen from around £20m 4 years ago to over £110m, ok they have purchased some businesses but this does not account for the massive increase. Also cash flow is complicated by their financing and securisation scheme, but in my view the business has aggressive accounting policies as highlighted by the marketing capitalisation.

In the latest interims the directors state that they will now write off market expenditure as and when it occurs, which will result in net assets reducing by £20m at the finals next Spring (a big figure which was ignored by the market) They state that this will have no material impact on operating profits. I don't believe them. In any case gearing is likely to be in excess of 130% and how about those banking convenants with this excess?

Although not very material they state that under FRS 17 they have an additional net pension liability not in the balance sheet of some £2.8m, plus they have a pension prepayment in the accounts of some £3m.

More importantly the Chairman owns 5.5% of the company and I get the impression from the accounts that he runs the business to suit himself. If I were a shareholder I would be very concerned that there is not a main board FD. Why not in a company of this size?

These catalogue businesses are also under a lot of pricing pressure at the moment, which could also impact operating margins.

Finally for what it is worth the accounts were signed off in June by Arthur Andersen

[ian56] 31/1/2003 14:47

Amat warns
SOX falls to 3-mo. low on Applied Materials order view ($SOX, AMAT, INTC, KLAC, NVLS) by Tomi Kilgore
The chip sector is taking an early dive following Applied Materials' (AMAT) warning of lower than anticipated first quarter orders. The Phlx Semiconductor Index ($SOX) is shedding 3.5 percent to a 3-month low. Applied Materials' stock is currently halted for trading. Among other chip equipment makers, Novellus Systems (NVLS) is shedding 5.4 percent to $28.30 and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) is losing 6.2 percent to $31.66. Sector bellwether and Dow industrials component Intel (INTC) is giving up 2.5 percent to $15.39.

Regards,
Ian

[toffeeman] 31/1/2003 14:44

dodddy - wot rumours and wherefrom?