Vaneck Glb Moat Discussion Threads

[cat] 31/1/2003 14:41

FDL - just thro support too

[dodddy] 31/1/2003 14:30

>toffeeman, re fdl someone else agrees cos they sold 2 big lumps earlier and csfb are trying to make them look like buys

[toffeeman] 31/1/2003 14:25

It seems to me to be the proverbial pile of pooh and I can't understand the valuation:

Fixed assets are freehold land worth about £28m the rest are equipment and goodwill oh!! and £14m investment in private companies!!!

The Stock turn seems ludicrous for a business like this (end sept 2002 £78m 6 m t/o £142m and they appear to have capitalised customer acquisition costs in debtors and prepayments!

It seems highly geared and they only retain 50% of customers per year, but don't seem to be actively increasing customer acquisition - so that indicates a strategy of contraction or trying to get their existing customers to buy double from them - very risky to me!

I can't see any reason for holding this stock and a few good ones for selling it!

Not short yet but very tempted

[indalo] 31/1/2003 14:14

Hmmmm....HHR is finally showing divergences on RSI and MAs about to cross down (10 and 50 day).

A break away from here looks likely IMO.

[dodddy] 31/1/2003 14:12

>toffeman can elaborate re fdl ???

[moregas] 31/1/2003 13:57

Thanks Goodfella, you have laid one ghost to rest there..the time span since last nights short...a full UKP no less..was Feb contract..and I was worrying the upswing may have lasted till expiry.

Hope you liked the NRK animation.

[goodfella] 31/1/2003 13:50

I am sorry but the Dow update today is not at all clear as there are a myriad of possiblities

Potential to swing trade but could be a number of whipsaws

The one problem we have on the DOW is that it is an expanding triangle formation and these are highly unpredictable as upper and lower trendlines are both running away from each other.

This demonstrates a large public participation and emotionally charged trading.

These patterns are notorious for false breaks and almost impossible to predict and therefore I cannot afford to be out of the short side if I believe the ultimate trend is down

Personally I am not stopping out of any shorts and adding into any rally.

[moregas] 31/1/2003 13:49

Income is supposedly trending down and saving showed an increase..could be read as spending contraction.

[griss] 31/1/2003 13:44

8:30 A.M. Personal Income December:

up from 0.3% to 0.4%

consensus was 0.2%

[griss] 31/1/2003 13:40

AstraZeneca digests loss of ulcer drug
By Dominic White (Filed: 31/01/2003)


AstraZeneca yesterday counted the cost of losing its patent on Losec, the most successful legal drug in recent history, warning that earnings will fall this year as a result.

Europe's second-biggest pharmaceutical company forecast that underlying earnings will fall to between $1.50 (91p) and $1.65 per share, largely because of generic competition to the ulcer treatment.

However, the shares rose 156 to £20.78 as AstraZeneca beat City forecasts with its full-year results despite cutting the full-year dividend by 11pc to 43.2p.

Earnings per share rose 7pc to $1.84 out of underlying profits up 3pc to $4.39 billion. Sales were 9pc higher at $17.8 billion. The final dividend of 28.5p will be paid on April 7.

Sir Tom McKillop, the chief executive, predicted a strong recovery from 2004 onwards, despite concerns that his transformation of AstraZeneca's portfolio is taking longer than expected.

"I hope this is a reassuring set of figures and signals for the future," he said. "Clearly we are going to lose significant sales but we have plenty of new growth products coming through."

Sales excluding Losec grew by 23pc, buoyed by healthy sales of Nexium, a follow-up to Losec. AstraZeneca also made a provision of $350m to cover potential settlement costs related to investigations into the marketing of cancer drug Zoladex in the US.

Sir Tom sought to play down concerns about any further delays to the launch of cholesterol-fighting drug Crestor, which the company is betting will be its next blockbuster.

He said AstraZeneca would refile the drug with the US Food and Drug Administration during the first quarter of this year, paving the way for its launch before the end of 2003.

Crestor's launch into the US has been delayed by a year following requests for more information on the product.

Sir Tom said it would be launched in Europe "fairly soon", following the resolution of pricing issues. He said Crestor could take 20pc of the market for so-called statin cholesterol drugs

[griss] 31/1/2003 13:35

I read earlier that some are negative on AZN, if there are any who might care to comment I'd very much appreciate it...cheers.

[toffeeman] 31/1/2003 13:32

fastbuck - FDL mentioned lots here

[moregas] 31/1/2003 13:30

Goodfella - have you given a Dow update anywhere today?

How much upside do you see from here if 7960 is overshot? It seemed an awfully tight stop considering the distance the Dow has been covering lately and I was thinking the stop could be so tight because any upside over it could be high risk, ie substantial. I see you mentioned an expanded triangle above having the ability to form a bottom. A bottom sounds fairly decisive somehow, or perhaps me and my emotions. (Oh and I just read Keller's count and he's on for a rally). Also end of month window dressing. Something I was not aware of about our recent consol action around 8000 "The bottom of that consolidation is flat too....cons with flat base like that normally break down (opposite true if upper limit is flat)."

And I also hear Bush had OK'd the use of nukes too.

[griss] 31/1/2003 13:30

01/31 13:08
UAL Fourth-Quarter Loss Widens to $1.5 Billion on Higher Costs
By Lynne Marek


Chicago, Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- United Airlines parent UAL Corp., the world's second-largest airline company, said its fourth- quarter loss widened to $1.5 billion as the carrier failed to bring costs in line with lower revenue.

The loss at UAL, which filed for Chapter 11 protection from creditors on Dec. 9, was $20.70 a share, bigger than the loss of $308 million, or $5.68, in the year-earlier quarter. Sales rose 18 percent to $3.47 billion from $2.95 billion. Costs climbed 16 percent to $4.46 billion from $3.84 billion.

[fastbuck] 31/1/2003 13:15

Which company toffeeman ... I'd be interested in the last valuation for a poss value GAP

[tpaulbeaumont] 31/1/2003 12:56

NMS can ki....Sterling job lads, had a power cut here, didnt see the action,
HOW'D YA LIKE THEM APPLES!!
Good to see that 'NOTHING HAS CHANGED'!! lots of communication and transport troubles tommorrow = RED RED RED(in the best poss. way of course :| )!!
"The Tony And George Show" I like it, curTC of MATTHEWA, avg. effect on DOW of BUSH chat = -65!!
Drunk, ill(GF you aint suffered like this...I hope!) and on the road to recovery, but short, may only good things happen to us all. take care.
Lochaim.
T

[tpaulbeaumont] 31/1/2003 12:56

NMS can ki....Sterling job lads, had a power cut here, didnt see the action,
HOW'D YA LIKE THEM APPLES!!
Good to see that 'NOTHING HAS CHANGED'!! lots of communication and transport troubles tommorrow = RED RED RED(in the best poss. way of course :| )!!
"The Tony And George Show" I like it, curTC of MATTHEWA, avg. effect on DOW of BUSH chat = -65!!
Drunk, ill(GF you aint suffered like this...I hope!) and on the road to recovery, but short, may only good things happen to us all. take care.
Lochaim.
T

[moregas] 31/1/2003 12:51

I wasn't a shorter inthe last big drop but what were cnbc mouthpieces saying thn? were they pinning it on then? Now its 'fears of a war with Iraq laying heavy on the market'. What was it then?

[moregas] 31/1/2003 12:41

EMA big H&S over 1.5 yrs. close to neckline before todays scorcher. But break would target a revisit to OCt 02 lows nicely.

[moregas] 31/1/2003 12:41

EMA big H&S over 1.5 yrs. close to neckline before todays scorcher. But break would target a revisit to OCt 02 lows nicely.

[theape] 31/1/2003 12:37

on the 100 ( and 250) they have a natural hedge. the longs and shorts etc, so they can act as market maker and pocket the difference.

the increased volaitility, and one sided bets outside this ( by their advanced risk management techniques) rightly show they are likely to get stuffed.

so they hedge all these bets now fully, and I suspect the UK PPT will be exerting pressure to reduce short availability, nms blah blah.

[moregas] 31/1/2003 12:33

lol...they are hiding them from us...

[theape] 31/1/2003 12:30

its worse than I thought. LOL

[moregas] 31/1/2003 12:29

Its not even ex 350 the 350 shares have gone just seens aa cracker workspace group but not finnable. Will have to teeleefone them