Van Elle Share Discussion Threads

[lammylover] 26/1/2018 17:08

I actually thought the RNS was a very honest appraisal of the situation for H2 post Carillion. I like that honesty and so it looks like, did the City judging by the rise in the share price subsequently. Just need a well rated CEO to be appointed and get some new big contracts in and we will push on past 100p, Rich

[hopeful holder] 26/1/2018 15:01

Nice rise following clarification of exposure to Carillon. Shame I sold out. It's on my watch list.

[mfhmfh] 26/1/2018 08:22

Generally positive write up yesterday from Paul Scott

[jonwig] 26/1/2018 08:21

@ gutterhead - describing others' comments as stupid ignores the fact that the market (as seen in the share price) hasn't made up its mind on the way things will develop here in the coming months.

The fact that you're positive doesn't make other views stupid!

[gutterhead] 26/1/2018 08:14

there really are some stupid comments from some posters on here, best ignored.
I think they have handled the situation as best they could, underlying results and growth good. I'm positive

[jhan66] 25/1/2018 08:46

There are few companies where I hold a more positive long term view than here at Vanl.
I’ll hang on to my small holding for now but am more interested in buying more in six months or a year.
They are good results with a good balance sheet. It’s not my field but they seem well run & sufficiently prudent for my tastes.
I’m not too concerned about the bad debt, it’s the ongoing work which bothers me. Carrying big fixed costs with the rigs investment, they won’t be happy with the inevitable slow down in contracts & enquiries which is surely the outcome of Carillion projects. Even with best intentions & endevours from end customers such as Network Rail, they must anticipate delays.
Nevertheless they look well capable of weathering this. They have a sound business and I hope to have a bigger holding going forward.

[hooverdam99] 25/1/2018 08:39

This company is incapable of delivering good news. Not a bad first half but anyone with a brain would have at least got money up front or not done any work at all for Carillion given the warnings. The impact of Carillion will harm them going forward as almost all of their major competitors have their own ground engineering and piling arms so will keep the work in house. Their are also a mass of CV’s from their employees flying about which smacks of an unhappy ship.

[lammylover] 25/1/2018 08:18

H1 results good, H2 to be hit by Carillion failure, but this had already been announced. BOD just managing expectation for H2. Long term hold here, I reckon for growth and dividend. A few contract wins and price will go past 100p again. Just my view Rich

[dahhad] 25/1/2018 07:46

Such a negative statement re the 2nd half of the year IMHO means that the share price will be hammered!

[jonwig] 25/1/2018 07:31

H1 results are out. Looks like a struggle between long-term attractions and short-term disappointment (for the current full year).

[mfhmfh] 19/1/2018 16:32

Otus Capital Management above 5%.

[bogdan branislov] 17/1/2018 13:46

jonwig: Re Carillion. Forensic accountants were not needed, the liabilities on Carillion's balance sheet were as clear as night and day. To still pay the dividend was an indication that mgt did not grasp it at all. This was a GCSE level business question, not complex at all. Brokers and fund mgrs are a clueless lot for the most part they just follow the herd - Government still awarding, must be ok, just can't understand, given the value of carillion as a govt contractor, that they were not given some govt advice re debts, deficits and divis - if the divi had been halved 5 years ago we would not be here now. Van Elle - yes they will nearly always be subbed in, nothing wrong with that, our infrastructure is creaking, under invested for years. Also, Van Elle are good at the difficult end of ground works - I watched them on the A1 upgrade a few months ago - inserting pilings into a vertical rock wall alongside the new road in order to secure a heavy duty restraining mesh - a difficult op, they have a strong niche. Bogdan

[jonwig] 17/1/2018 11:54

@bogdan - I agree with much of that. But up to maybe six months ago, fund managers were still invested in CLLN, brokers were still giving buy/hold recommendations and in fact some funds still held positions with zero value on Monday. The government clearly didn't employ forensic accountants either!

All praise to the hedge funds who saw from the accounts and talking to subcontractors just what was going on. Scuttlebutting was a big factor in taking short positions. Contrary to popular belief, shorters don't make companies bankrupt, potentially bankrupt companies attract shorters - who lose money themselves often enough.

My own view was that CLLN didn't fit my risk profile so I never even thought of investing. VANL is, I agree probably a very sound company. Trouble is, muckshifting is such an interconnected sector that often events are out of one's control.

[bogdan branislov] 17/1/2018 11:16

Van Elle has had a lot of turbulence during its short quoted history. The HS2 work delay, the attempted boardroom coup and now Carillion. The HS2 delay reassured me, that is the promptness with which van Elle informed us. The decisiveness with which the boardroom coup was seen off was also good, shareholders were forced to take a very close look and liked what they saw. As for Carillion. I have always rejected the many buy recommendations over the years due to Carillion's balance sheet looking like a slice of Swiss cheese for as long as I can remember. Were Van Elle reckless to work for Carillion? Not in my view, although Carillion's weak balance sheet has always made it vulnerable to events, this has been the case for a decade and could have remained the case for another decade. Van Elle's exposure is not excessive, working for Carillion was the right thing to do. Carillion is a strange contradiction. Poor financial management - which has been plain to see for a decade or more to anyone who can read a balance sheet - and paying such a big divi with their debt and pension deficit was reckless. But operationally Carillion were not incompetent at all. Pity that their major customer, Government, did not have a word some years ago saying that the balance sheet must improve, cut the divi or we will regard you as high risk for further contracts - that may have been all it would have taken. Oh, and Van Elle is clearly a strong buy at this price, one of the strongest 5 stock opportunities out there in my view. Best, Bogdan.

[jimmywilson612] 16/1/2018 16:24

I've taken an initial position here - feel that whilst it's an unfortunate position - I believe most of the work will be sucked up by the wider market so shouldnt effect too much future revenue/profitability.

I also think the business financial sound to see it through this current setback - the problems are to do with Carillion and not Van Elle.

[mfhmfh] 16/1/2018 14:09

Paul Scott's view:

'Its exposure to Carillion looks quite small, at £1.6m - being the total outstanding debt and work-in-progress. Note that the market has knocked about £6.1m off Van Elle's market cap today.'

'These numbers are small relative to Van Elle's market cap, and I would be inclined to buy the dip, if I liked this company. Having just done some checks, my view is that Van Elle has a strong balance sheet, and is strongly profitable. Therefore it should be able to easily cope with the sort of numbers mentioned in today's RNS, without any threat whatsoever to the company's solvency.

Therefore, providing nothing else comes out of the woodwork, based on today's announcement, Van Elle shareholders can relax. This is a relatively modest, one-off hit to earnings & the balance sheet, that should not do any long-term damage to the company.'

[gutterhead] 16/1/2018 08:50

The govt can take a hard line but some one has to do the work and get paid-If van Elle walk away from the job, some one else would have to do it and get paid
if delays in work start hitting the headlines and affecting peoples day to day lives, that will be a nightmare for the govt
I hope/think common sense will prevail

[hooverdam99] 16/1/2018 08:32

What disturbs me is that the management obviously didn’t carry out a financial risk assessment before they carried out this work given the warnings. Smacks of incompetence to me.

[redartbmud] 16/1/2018 08:26

Unpaid debts will undoubtedly remain - unpaid.
The Government is taking a very hard line and Clln debts are of seismic proportions.
Cash resources and balance sheet damaged. Short term disruption on existing contracts means plant and staff are idle until the contracts resume.
In the longer term this will be seen as a blip.

[sundance 13] 16/1/2018 07:46

Not convinced it'll drop as far as 80p though, the required work hasn't disappeared, it'll just have to be directly Govt funded or picked up by another supplier. One way or another VANL will probably end up doing it still. It's more the cash flow impact, but VANL have a strong balance sheet.

[gutterhead] 16/1/2018 07:43

you're not alone Graham. rose tinted specs moment for many. myself included.
Hope triumphed over common sense

[sundance 13] 16/1/2018 07:42

Frustrating isn't it, only recently bought myself and didn't realise they had direct and material exposure to CLLN, if only I'd checked this BB yesterday, it was flagged by several posters! The danger of being a part time investor.

[grahamandkay] 16/1/2018 07:35

What was I thinking, I know and work in the construction industry and was going to sell up yesterday as I knew VANL would have major contracts with carillion and it was a no brainer that there would be a fall out. Something stopped me, stupidty!! At the very least I would have been able to buy back in this morning at around 80p no doubt and increase my holding. What was I thinking, head in my hand moment!!! lol.

[hybrasil] 16/1/2018 07:34

These things happen in this business

I won't be selling

[dahhad] 16/1/2018 07:31

The usual big spread will emphasise the fall IMHO