Valeura Energy Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 08/3/2021 07:18

European stocks head for higher open with progress of U.S. stimulus package in focus

Published Mon, Mar 8 20211:08 AM EST

Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt


Key Points

European stocks are expected to open higher Monday, buoyed by positive U.S. sentiment as the U.S.′ Covid relief bill is expected to be approved by the House of Representatives later this week.

London’s FTSE is seen opening 47 points higher at 6,670, Germany’s DAX 52 points higher at 13,973, France’s CAC 40 up 33 points at 5,813 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 183 points at 23,138, according to IG.

[waldron] 08/3/2021 00:33

Consensus

Mean consensus HOLD

Number of Analysts 3 1 sell, 1 hold and 1 buy

insufficiebt coverage

if earnings release confirms the NTAV then one might well expect a substantial move up

approx 10 trading days to clarify share price and valuation situation

good luck oakridge with thread and investment

[grupo guitarlumber] 07/3/2021 23:59

Upcoming events on VALEURA ENERGY INC.


march/18/2021 FY 2020 Earnings Release (Projected)

perhaps too early to make judgement until earning release

[grupo guitarlumber] 07/3/2021 23:56

advfn key figures


Turnover PS 9.27 p
Pre-Tax Profit PS -3.83 p
Retained Profit PS -4.24 p
Cash PS 32.03 p
Net Cash PS 18.52 p
Net Tangible Asset Value PS * 54.81 p
Net Asset Value PS 58.41 p

[grupo guitarlumber] 07/3/2021 23:51

Must admit not a share for me

too illiquide and i tend to feel it seems still overvalued even after the recent sell off

i would only hold oil majors and only those paying a decent divi

take care

[grupo guitarlumber] 07/3/2021 23:44

Good luck with your new thread

will post if i think of sometime helpful regarding oil and gas

have a super week

[oakridge] 07/3/2021 14:59

Potential News:

1) Confirmation of conventional asset sale to TBNG expected Q1 '21.

2) Partnering news and drill program of dry 'sweet spots' at retained deep, tight gas play.

3) M&A news anticipated. Due diligence was "well progressed" back in December '20.

NAI. ADYOR and enjoy the thread.

[oakridge] 06/3/2021 11:59

Given this company has never even had its own proper thread since listing on the LSE, I thought it was about time.

Fair cash value, upon sale of conventional, shallow assets deemed 38p / share.

Friday close at 28.5p mid price.

These are well and truly off the radar and look good value to me.

Sometimes hard to buy in decent volume.

Just c.86m shares in issue with c.20% with Baillie Gifford who, to quote the CEO directly, "remain supportive". A further 10%+ are probably tightly held.

Should move well on positive developments.

GLA. ADYOR. NAI.

[oakridge] 06/3/2021 11:49

!FOLLOWFEED
VALEURA ENERGY - SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE POTENTIAL FOR 2021??

Valeura Energy Inc. is an upstream oil & gas company, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Its shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol VLE and on the London Stock Exchange under the symbol VLU.

The company benefits from having a very strong balance sheet, zero debt and a 'quality in depth' board of directors who collectively bring considerable industry experience.

Given the strength of Valeura's cash position, it is very well positioned for inorganic growth opportunities in a sector presently deemed a 'buyers market', ripe for M&A activity and consolidation.

In addition to cash, it also holds substantial upside potential through an operated deep, tight gas play in the Thrace Basin, Turkey.

Recent and Upcoming Events as at 06/03/21

* Valeura confirms net cash position of c. US $31.3 M.

* In addition, Valeura Announces Provisional Sale of Shallow Conventional Assets for $15.5M to TBNG ltd, with potential royalty payments of up to US $2.5M. Conclusion of sale anticipated Q1 '21.

* Total Cash in Hand anticipated to be c. US $47 M (or c.0.38p / share uk // c.$0.69 share Canadian)

* In addition, Valeura Restates Retained100% interest in a c.20 Tcfe3 unrisked mean prospective deep, tight gas play, Thrace Basin, Turkey, with both local and export gas infrastructure and market in place. Drilling has proven gas across the prospect. A US $ 100M exploration / appraisal program has already been completed and drilling has proven gas across the prospect. Exploration licences have been extended with minimal holding costs.

* Valeura Appoints New Corporate Broker Auctus Advisors LLP.

...................................................................................................

December '20 - CEO Presentation to Shares Magazine

!YOUTUBEVIDEO:ntJ9Of_02m0:

The Most Recent Company Overview Presentation in 2021:



March 2021 Interview with Stephane Foucaud, Head of Research Auctus Advisors:



Full Auctus Note Here:



[...]
...........................................................................................................................





............................................................................................................................





As at 06/03/21, the company has just 86.6M shares in issue and with a share price of 28.5p has a market cap of £24.68M

As with all BB threads, the usual caveats apply: ADYOR & NAI.

[oakridge] 05/3/2021 08:41

Trading at c.25% below cash with c. $45M to play with, which could give leverage out to c. $150M...a great strategic advantage over industry peers.

It's all about the BOD picking the right target now.

[oakridge] 05/3/2021 08:28

Potential for "Rerating on the back of an acquisition".

It's getting close imo.

VLU publicly stated that they were 'well advanced' in due diligence back in December.

Eyes peeled for an update here.

ADYOR.

[oakridge] 05/3/2021 08:21

Shout out to the twitterati following VLU...

Valeura Tweeting Interview with Auctus Advisor today:

[oakridge] 04/3/2021 12:06

ADVFN shows the mkt cap at c.£24 M.

When the sale of the existing assets are confirmed, this will have just short of $50M in cash, a strong board of directors and zero debt, plus a quote "blue sky" asset in a 100% retained interest in a potentially significant gas field.

Mkt is not even pricing in the cash at the moment, let alone any potential.

It's the last of my recent pics to have moved yet, but I expect that to change.

ADYOR.

[oakridge] 04/3/2021 11:53

Hi shabadi. The shares are well and truly off the radar at the moment so could prove to be a great entry. Trading below cash now and hopefully with confirmation of the producing assets to come in soon. If so it will take cash to around 38p a share. Then there will probably be M&A activity to follow. May well add some myself, it's just far too cheap now imho. When support does arrive, it'll move swiftly imo. Good luck.

[shabadi] 04/3/2021 11:22

Oakridge, have bought a small amount of this today. Liked the presentations I have seen and current cash/asset value v share price.

Will sit on these and wait for exciting acquisition news.

[oakridge] 24/2/2021 16:11

I suspect that when the sale of the producing asset is formally signed off and concluded, the company will restate a cash value of c.38p a share. That would entirely discount the value in VLU's retained 100% interest in the deep, tight asset in Turkey.

Extraordinarily quiet here and a little boredom setting amongst peeps as a few tiny sells chip at the share price The potential for significant upside here on several fronts remains however.....including sale confirmation, farm in partner for retained interests and M&A activity, as repeatedly stated by management. The sector is ripe for consolidation and is a buyer's market for those with the money. And VLU has plenty of money.

Good luck, NAI and ADYOR.

[oakridge] 14/2/2021 15:01

Asian, European Natural Gas Benchmarks See Record Exchange Activity in January


BY CHRISTOPHER LENTON
February 2, 2021
Global exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) saw record activity across its Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and Japan Korea Marker (JKM) natural gas benchmarks in January.


Citing “volatile market conditions set against the ongoing liberalization”; of liquefied natural gas (LNG), ICE reported record monthly futures and options volumes for TTF and JKM contracts.

“Customers from every corner of the world are turning to our TTF and JKM benchmarks to provide much needed transparent price discovery and enable them to seamlessly transfer risk,” said ICE’s Gordon Bennett, managing director, Utility Markets. “This was particularly needed during the recent turbulence experienced across natural gas markets.”

TTF and JKM are cleared at ICE Clear Europe. European benchmark TTF futures hit record open interest (OI) of about 1.9 million contracts on Jan. 27 and TTF futures and options hit a record daily volume of more than 347,500 contracts on Jan. 12. TTF futures and options also hit a record monthly volume of four million contracts in January, beating the previous record set in January 2020.


Asian benchmark JKM hit a combined futures and options OI record of 125,000 contracts on Jan. 14, and JKM futures hit a record monthly volume of more than 91,500 contracts in January.

January was a particularly turbulent month for global natural gas prices, with Asian LNG skyrocketing above $30/MMBtu early in the month. Spot prices in Spain also shattered records early in the new year.


Energy Aspects’ James Waddell, a senior global gas analyst, said severe cold, production outages, shipping constraints and a scramble to find supplies were a few of the factors behind the meteoric rise in Asian LNG prices in early January.

The uptick in market activity since November has prompted analysts at Morgan Stanley to increase their 2021 European natural gas price forecast by 35% to $5.80, mainly on stronger forecast demand and lower LNG imports. The bank also increased its JKM spot forecast to $7.50 this year from an earlier projection of $4.50.

[oakridge] 14/2/2021 14:59

Why Natural Gas Prices Are Set To Go Higher

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 18, 2021, 5:00 PM CST
Join Our Community

Winter temperatures below seasonal norms in the northern hemisphere have created a rally in natural gas prices from Asia to Europe. The spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in north Asia jumped to record highs last week, while the key price marker in Europe, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), rallied to the highest in more than two years.

The natural gas markets at the start of 2021 look completely different from the beginning of last year, when milder weather and the pandemic hit to demand had dragged natural gas prices down to historic lows.

This winter season, a rebound in Asian natural gas demand, supply issues at major LNG exporters, logistics issues at the Panama Channel, soaring tanker rates, and last but not least, the cold snap from Madrid to Tokyo, are pushing gas prices higher.

Even when temperatures return to seasonal norms in coming weeks and the Polar Vortex-induced cold spells in Europe end, natural gas prices will continue to be supported through the spring and summer, as buyers would look to restock, analysts say.

The record-high Asian LNG prices may not last for long, but these generally higher prices than last year’s lows are set to support the prices in Europe, which is likely to receive fewer LNG cargoes this winter considering that spot prices in Asia are much, much higher.

In just two months, the global natural gas market turned from an oversupplied or a finely balanced market at best, into a tightening market, leading to hikes in prices from Asia to Europe. The much higher prices in Asia and Europe than the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will incentivize U.S. LNG spot sales to those markets and the maximizing of U.S. liquefaction capacity, according to analysts.

Related: UAE Oil Major Turns To Hydrogen

Spot LNG prices in Asia have staged an impressive rally over the past two months and have now soared 18 times from April 2020 lows—and the surge is obliterating even the recent rally in Bitcoin prices.

A perfect storm of unusually cold winter in north Asia, outages at major LNG exporters, and logistical and shipping constraints drove the price of Asia’s LNG benchmark, the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), to the highest on record last week, soaring over $30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the first time.

In Spain, home of one of Europe’s biggest terminals, LNG prices also surged amid an unusual cold snap in the country, which brought a rare snowfall in Madrid.

The lower-than-normal temperatures in many parts of Europe are driving higher gas withdrawals than usual, setting the stage for higher-than-expected demand through the spring and summer for replenishing stocks.

Goldman Sachs expects a “perfect bullish storm” for natural gas prices this year, and raised its forecasts for the prices at the European benchmark, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), to $8.30/MMBtu for the rest of this winter, from $6.65/MMBtu expected earlier. Goldman also lifted its spot Asia LNG price outlook to $14.30/MMBtu from $12.65/MMBtu.

“The current cold spell in the northern hemisphere is paving the way for a tighter global gas market throughout the year,” Wood Mackenzie said last week in its 2021 gas market outlook.

After the impressive surge, Asian LNG spot prices will drop in the second quarter, but the current cold spell is setting the stage for an increasingly tight summer gas market, compared to what looked like a finely balanced summer just a month ago, WoodMac says.

Gas storage levels in Europe are already more than 15 billion cubic meters lower than last year and are now close to the past five-year average. Forecasts of higher coal and European carbon prices, also partially driven by the current cold spell, “provide headroom for higher European summer gas demand,” the consultancy noted.

“Global prices reached record lows in 2020, with TTF averaging US$3.2/mmbtu and Asian LNG spot averaging US$3.9/mmbtu. 2021 will show a stark difference, we anticipate TTF averaging US$5.6/mmbtu and Asian LNG spot averaging US$7.6/mmbtu,” said Wood Mackenzie vice president Massimo Di Odoardo.

The surge in Asian spot LNG prices is good news for U.S. exporters.

The wide spread between Asia’s LNG prices and Henry Hub suggests there is “very little chance” of seeing U.S. LNG cargo cancellations—as in the summer of 2020—anytime soon, Warren Patterson, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy, said in the bank’s Energy Outlook 2021.

“Regional gas markets will be better supported over 2021, and it looks increasingly unlikely that we will see a repeat of cargo cancellations this year,” Patterson added.

[oakridge] 14/2/2021 14:54

An interesting read re. US natural Gas:

[oakridge] 14/2/2021 14:46

Norway's Equinor expects 'volatile' European gas market in short term
HIGHLIGHTS
LNG market dynamics trigger shift in European conditions

Sees more balanced market in one-two year timeframe

Equinor exposed to LNG despite lack of physical assets


Author
Stuart Elliott
Editor
Daniel Lalor
Commodity
Natural Gas
London — Norway's state-controlled Equinor expects a "volatile" European gas market in the short term on the back of the recent tightness in the global LNG market and low European winter temperatures, CEO Anders Opedal said Feb. 10.

Not registered?

Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.

Register Now Speaking to reporters following the publication of Equinor's Q4 earnings, Opedal also said he anticipated a return to a more balanced European gas market over the coming 1-2 years.
European gas prices have risen from lows of just over Eur4/MWh ($4.8/MWH) last summer to more than Eur20/MWh in January, according to S&P Global Platts price assessments. The TTF day-ahead price was assessed Feb. 9 at Eur19.80/MWh.

Opedal said the recent elevated gas prices in Europe followed LNG market tightness -- which saw cargoes diverted to Asia and away from Europe -- and the resulting increased demand for European pipeline gas.

Higher European gas demand due to unseasonably cold weather and fewer LNG imports also resulted in higher withdrawals from storage, he said, impacted also by the delay to the start of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.

Because of these factors, Opedal said: "I think we will see a volatile market."

The recent market dynamics have also given "support for a positive outlook for prices, also coming into the summer season", he said.

Further out, Opedal said Equinor expected the market to be more balanced "when we move a year or two ahead".

The 55 Bcm/year Nord Stream 2 link had been due to start up at the end of 2019, but the threat of US sanctions has led to delays in its completion.

As a result of the delays, Gazprom must rely either on booking more short-term capacity via Ukraine if it wants to increase exports to Europe or on continuing to draw down its remaining gas stocks in Europe.

LNG exposure
Opedal also said Equinor was "increasingly exposed" to LNG prices within its portfolio, given the impact of global LNG market dynamics on European gas.

"We saw that when Asian [demand] was spiking due to cold weather and LNG outages, we have also seen the price increasing in Europe due to LNG being moved to Asia," he said.

Equinor did not have to have physical LNG production assets to be involved in the LNG market, and that the company used "contractual arrangements" to manage its portfolio and participate in the LNG trade, he said.

Equinor operates the 4.3 million mt/year Hammerfest LNG export facility in Norway and has term commitments for supply from the plant.

However, it has been shut since September after a fire.

A company spokesman told Platts on Feb. 10 it was still Equinor's best estimate that operations at Hammerfest LNG would resume in October.

Q4 output
With the outage at Hammerfest -- fed with gas from the Snohvit offshore gas field -- Equinor's equity Norwegian gas production in Q4 slipped by 4% year on year to 698,000 b/d of oil equivalent.

Its average realized gas price in Europe was $5.04/MMBtu in Q4, up from $2.72/MMBtu in the previous quarter.

Despite the year-on-year drop in Norwegian gas output, the company increased production compared with Q3 when it averaged 654,000 boe/d.

Equinor deferred some gas production from its main 'flex' fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf -- Troll and Oseberg -- last summer due to very low European prices.

"We increased our NCS flex gas production to capture additional value as the European gas prices continue to recover through the fourth quarter," CFO Svein Skeie said.

[oakridge] 10/2/2021 10:14

Just a couple of tiny buys visible so far today and we're on the move.

Hopefully the sale of the conventional assets to TBNG will be concluded soon.

This would then bring all cash to a touch below 50M US $ (+a few extra million in extra royalties)......and would infer a share price in the 40ps.

Even then, a share price in the 40p's would value the retained deep tight prospect at around zero. It would also value the companies strategic cash advantage at around zero. The potential of the BOD to produce a decent M&A result would also be in for nothing.

[lennonsalive] 10/2/2021 09:14

EMRGD

BUYS

[oakridge] 04/2/2021 20:05

VLU CEO's Latest Corporate Overview:

[oakridge] 04/2/2021 19:53

Valeura Energy Inc.
@ValeuraEnergy
·
23h
#Auctus Advisors commented that #Valeura “holds much more cash than what is held by many other shells”… hence allowing “#Valeura to target larger transactions combining the cash on the balance sheet with funds from other sources” #oil #gas $VLE $VLU

[oakridge] 04/2/2021 19:52

Latest tweets from VLU:



Valeura Energy Inc.
@ValeuraEnergy
·
Feb 3
Very pleased to have analyst Stephane Foucaud at #Auctus Advisors initiate research coverage on #Valeura today. “Well financed to amalgamate assets in a well managed entity.” Read the full report on the Auctus website.



$VLE $VLU