Urban Logistics Reit Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 01/10/2022 11:11

Yep Usually delivered to tenants as a shell Hence the attraction of sheds over say offices As offices are fitted out by the landlord and that fit out depreciates quite quickly (really 5-7 years) Where's the shed shell depreciates a lot slower

[spectoacc] 01/10/2022 11:02

Wait till you see what's going to happen to the housing market @Jonwig ;)

I see the dynamic slightly differently to posters above. I'm not greatly concerned by demand, or rents, or even rental growth - Last Mile about the best sectoral bet going.

What I see is an adjustment needing to happen for the change in the risk-free rate. When T-Bills nudge over 4% (or Gilts), all the assumptions about capital values have to change, in order to maintain the yield differential.

The market adjustment to the sheds ITs looks about right in that context. A 189p NAV - even without too much gearing - could easily be marked down considerably.

If you can see through it to the other side, they'll all be longs on say a 2 year view. But I think things will get worse first, and I also think the time to buy is when dirt cheap, not when fair value.

[jonwig] 01/10/2022 09:14

Would it be right to say that the internal "furniture" of a shed is the property of the occupier? The property owner puts up a shell, ensures utilities connection, temperature controls, vehicle access and not much else.

If so, then the land rather than the building is a bigger proportion of the value than with other sorts of property. And therefore a surplus of sheds, if it happens, wouldn't be so serious, as alternative use (housing?) would be easy to find. They'd have to sit on it for a year or three since building homes isn't so hot at the moment.

If I'm right the latest NAV of 189p won't have suffered so much. (And a LTV of 11% makes it even safer.)

[jbarcroftr] 01/10/2022 08:17

Thanks for your input nickrl.

[nickrl] 30/9/2022 23:53

@jbarcroftr if the economy starts shrinking then there won't be a shortage of logistic assets there will be a surplus. Don't be fooled by todays GDP data that was Q2 we are now at end of Q3 and a lot has happened since then. That said its a difficult one to call currently but downside risk far more likely.

[jbarcroftr] 30/9/2022 12:33

All my reits with the exception of SHED are showing signs of life today.Amazing really as SHED is my highest conviction holding.Yes there is turmoil in the market at the moment and everyone trying to sharp deals but in a couple of months I think levels will settle.Meanwhile the facts remain ,shortage of logistic assets,shortage( absence )of speculative build.All will lead to higher rents with inflation being another force driving rents upwards

[spectoacc] 27/9/2022 15:21

£1.26. I think they got most or all of the £250m they raised invested, which might now look a pity. But at least it was equity not more debt.

[spectoacc] 27/9/2022 10:25

They're trying to stare down the market, but the market always wins. £ has stabilised but every time oil goes up it's going to kill us.

Meanwhile, rates are going higher - perhaps much higher - to counter the tax cutting.

WHR -4.6%, SHED -4.1%, EBOX -2.6%, SGRO -3% - still doesn't feel like we've bottomed unfortunately. Stuck holding many small REITs but getting increasingly tempted by SHED.

I'd love a better handle on their debt/interest tho:

"Weighted average cost of debt for the year of 2.55%, with 74% hedged (FY21: 2.89%, with 69% hedged)

· Debt of £239m includes an £88m facility with sustainability linked metrics"

[dhoult12] 27/9/2022 10:16

Yeah I'm holding this one and BBOX still (I didn't buy at recent high nor sadly did I sell) and sold others in retail and office, medium term should be ok as long as commander truss doesn't go through with all she says.... Can't believe after this they will come back with significant further cuts in Jan.. but you never know

[spectoacc] 27/9/2022 09:08

Cheap getting cheaper. I'd like to start seeing some director buys amongst all the REITs. Mind you, the directors have little more idea than the markets what's going to happen next. (Tho everyone seems to have more idea than Ollie Bailey).

[spectoacc] 26/9/2022 14:04

Now £1.35.

They did say last time they were turning more cautious, but that meant targeting an LTV nearer to 30% than 40%. They've made a few c.4.5% purchases (£90m to be exact) since then; not sure they'll be making many more like that the way borrowing costs are going.

[spectoacc] 26/9/2022 08:19

All gone a bit quiet on here. SHED now available at £1.38.

What's the debt duration & interest rate currently I wonder? Likely to have changed since the last results (which reflected the capital raises).

Want to go back into SHED one day, but the whole sector's so discounted atm, there's a lot of choice.

[petewy] 25/8/2022 09:15

Solid acquisition.

[gbcol] 30/6/2022 14:55

I think that may be right shauney2. The results indicated 1 July but think ex div must be today. So that accounts for half of today’s drop but share price still well under NAV.

[shauney2] 30/6/2022 14:22

Although not holding at the moment it is ex dividend today.

[gbcol] 30/6/2022 13:56

Yes strange that it has dropped back sharply this week but with the NAV at 188p I’m content enough for the “opportunity” to add a few more at 162/163p and take the divi while waiting for share price to return closer to NAV.

[jbarcroftr] 30/6/2022 11:52

Market obviously disregarding last weeks results

[jonwig] 23/6/2022 07:21

FY results:



Still very optimistic, despite market going a bit sour on sheds (big ones anyway).

NAV of 188.8p - I'd have thought it deserved a small premium at least.

[jbarcroftr] 16/6/2022 11:45

Shed is my biggest Reit holding.All the others are at a substantial discount to net asset value.so it’s not surprising that Shed has come back .
The last asset value I have is 164 p as at June 21.Since then they have had two big raises approx 400 m.There stated aim is to achieve a blended5.5 % yield but as the money is deployed it is not earning much and then have to absorb the acquisition costs ,so lots to muddy the performance.Also it doesn’t look too good to buy at 5.5% and then immediately revalue to 4.5%!
I believe we are due an update next week.I don’t expect too many fireworks but looking ahead I think Shed is a very sound hold for the long term
I too topped up at 164 p

[income investor] 16/6/2022 10:40

Chunky fall today. Made small top up at just under 163p. Hope results due soon don't contain bad news!!

[scruff1] 16/6/2022 10:26

Well yesterdays spot of relief was short lived :-(

[jonwig] 05/5/2022 08:05

My take is that the markets were expecting a given level of growth and that level is now expected to be lower (not negative).

The reaction is a reduction of the very high premiums to NAV which the shares enjoyed. Such as SGRO and BBOX were hit much harder of course, because Amazon is their largest tenant. SGRO, with a NAV premium of over 30% was bearing a huge weight of expectation.

Of course, we should get a return of confidence, but meanwhile consumer spending is going to be squeezed badly and companies will be thinking twice about increasing capacity until the air is clearer.

Anyway, today should see a bounce.

[scruff1] 05/5/2022 07:55

I read that at the end of April. Also that the over supply is temporary the space will be used eventually its just sooner than it needed to be. Lets see if shed and box sales start making an appearance cos only then would I expect it to affect rentals. Ecommerce is here to stay and sheds and boxes are just as integral to that as high street stores used to be. Sure retail is gonna be under the cosh for some time but judging the bottom of this over reaction would be a prudent move.Dividends are also ok and certainly as it stands wont be affected. A return of confidence may take some time. At least thats my opinion - alway pleased to read others

[jonwig] 05/5/2022 07:07

They didn't have the Amazon news last week. That was the sole catalyst.