Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 27/12/2018 09:44

MikeMike - they are referring to page 3 of the May Optiva ooverage

Throwingmuses - if you use that broker note guidance, the Optiva risked value was 8.4p a share for Wick. Risked value = pre-discovery, pre-drill.

So even factoring in that there are 100 million more shares in issue since that note, the market is definitely not as optimistic as their pre-drill views.

They note some of the parameters they use in their calculations, so you can judge for yourself whether they hold water.

Worth pointing out again that "Wick" is not one accumulation, but two potential targets - Wick and Wick Deep - of which the main target has two separate zones - Jurassic and Triassic. Each of these three is estimated to be about 1/3 of the volume in place by Blackwatch, who did the CPR for the supplemental placement. Blackwatch didn't estimate potential recoverable volumes or NPV, just STOIIP

Consequently, the well result is by no means a binary.

While there is clearly one very significant result, which remains the published most likely outcome (i.e. all the oil has gone someplace else), there are many other potential outcomes, each of which is the start point for the next phase ;-)

[cashandcard] 27/12/2018 09:41

"We have calculated that on the basis of the lower in place resources estimate, a recovery factor of 30% and an estimated NPV per barrel of recoverable oil of $14.79, Wick could be worth $485.9m net to Upland on an unrisked basis. This is equivalent to 72p per share on a fully diluted basis, a huge uplift on the current share price in the event of a successful exploration well.

For the purposes of our fully risked valuation, we have ascribed a considerably more conservative discovery to the Wick exploration well amounting to gross recoverable reserves of 23.4 mmbbls. To this we have applied the economics of a relatively low cost field development which should avoid most UK onshore planning delays. This consists of two production wells and a water injection well which could be drilled from onshore or offshore locations. After the application of a 40% chance of success, we have calculated a risked valuation of $56.2m to Upland’s 40% interest, equivalent to 8.4p on a fully diluted basis. This pre-drill valuation estimate forms part of our fully risked aggregate valuation of the company seen on the next page"






Cash

[mikemike16] 27/12/2018 09:14

No link on website unless you refer to Nikola dukes and her charts, plus two reviews from Optiva without pricing references.

Tburns thanks I will see if Zenga appears

[tburns] 27/12/2018 09:02

Thanks Throwing for that and here us hoping for a positive CPR

[throwingmuses] 27/12/2018 08:45

Thanks tburns, I agree, but I'd expect the price to be balancing much higher at this moment in time if the market was going to take us to 20p on success. Still, if the CPR throws up a load of gas in Tunisia, and even oil, then we definitely could be there! As we know, CPR due before Wick results, so we could be leaping from much higher by then. Mike, price is on note, link on website I'm sure. Said value in 70s of pence, but since dilution Wick value currently 57p I think, as worked out by the guys here at the time.

[poppet123] 27/12/2018 07:59

Wishing all holders a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year, we could see a nice blue day to kick start our recovery,but above all stay long and stay strong. GLA.

[nlmbidc] 27/12/2018 07:47

It will be no surprise to existing holders that the RNS is out.

Looking forward to a good trading day.

Bargain sale at these prices with the CPR for Tunisia coming soon.

[tburns] 27/12/2018 07:47

MM16, from memory Zenga has the link and is more knowledgeable than most on this thread, hopefully he may be able to post later

[mikemike16] 27/12/2018 06:06

Throwing thanks for the response the only broker notes I can see(two of them) are from Optiva and do not recall seeing a forward price guidance given.

[tburns] 27/12/2018 00:25

Great post Throwing, would be great to keep a free carry % on Wick and reinvest for Tunisia. I still think 20P is under expectation on a successful drill based around estimates of COS

[throwingmuses] 26/12/2018 21:34

Check the brokers note on website Mike, they suggest Wick could be worth a current 57p/share I think. Their calculations are there. How the market will value success, I just don't know, but it won't be anywhere near that. If we can unlock a little of that value by offloading the majority of our stake though, that cash could be used to drill in Tunisia, and fund the next steps at Wick, reducing the need raise money and minimise dilution. I'm sure Steve said in an old interview he wouldn't be looking to go into development at Wick holding 40 precent, and I hope we don't. We'll have more compelling investments to make elsewhere than getting too deep there, and getting cash in the bank would just set us up beautifully. If Wick comes in it could enable us to do so much with very little pain. Ideally then when we've drilled Tunisia, it would already be an appealing asset for either selling or farming out our share, and all of a sudden we could be well down the road with little or no dilution, and many many many times higher. That's with things going our way, and who knows how it'll unfold, but I do think there will be a big effort to keep dilution to a minimum whatever happens. The board are only going to make the big bucks here through share price growth, and they know just how to do that. The size of the prize in Sarawak should sort us out, all the more so if we get a little fortune along the way there. Such a compelling investment case here, can't wait for the next couple of months, from news from nowhere to news from everywhere! And every piece capable of changing the dynamic dramatically, can't wait.

[shares188] 26/12/2018 18:43

Well done Guys
It happened at the eleventh hour.
Will wick be enough to push this up?

[tburns] 26/12/2018 15:38

Agreed Stark, definite monster in the making and they are selling tickets for 3p

[mikemike16] 26/12/2018 10:45

Anyone care to share their calculations for 20p on a successful drill, assume Brent at 50$/ Thanks

[stark industries] 25/12/2018 22:14

UPL is a monster in the making.2019 is year where we will see the biggest share price movements 20p does not seem far fetched on a successful drill GLA

[nlmbidc] 25/12/2018 18:14

And the CPR for Tunisia will up the share price too.

[tburns] 25/12/2018 16:34

This is fantastic news on the back of the Tunisia licence being granted. 3 weeks until results, expect this to see a decent rise after Boxing Day and intended new year. Even with a reduced COS we could see 20P on a successful drill, so 6 bagger from here. Glass half full and if not we drop a penny v gaining 15+, best risk reward out there by far. GLA and Merry Christmas all

[moormoney] 25/12/2018 16:16

🥳🥳. Excellent news! Merry Christmas.

[trulyscrumptious] 25/12/2018 15:41

That certainly is a quick drill and exit, it should be all over by 15th January!


Spud of the Wick well
Corallian as Exploration Operator for Licence P2235 is pleased to report that drilling of the Wick exploration well (11/24b-4) commenced at 00:45 hrs on 25 December 2018. The Ensco-72 drilling rig will be on location for approximately 3 weeks.

[tyler90] 25/12/2018 13:12

Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year to all on here.Upland are delivering on their promises.Now we are in the lap of the gods. A successful drill and we could be in the early teens whilst a dud may see us even touch 2.5p again. I am mentally prepared for no success so anything other will be a pleasant surprise rather than a nasty shock.Everyone has a different technique and manner with dealing with such scenarios, mine is glass half empty.Good Luck to all whatever your view is.

[nlmbidc] 25/12/2018 12:21

Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year

[tialouise] 25/12/2018 10:58

Merry Christmas guys xx

[spook74] 25/12/2018 10:50

It's started fingers crossed and Happy Xmas

[poppet123] 25/12/2018 10:49

Merry Christmas to you all, and wishing you all a healthy and happy new year.

[doughty] 25/12/2018 10:46

Spud... https://corallian.co.uk/news