Udg Healthcare Public Share Discussion Threads

[trawl] 23/8/2006 09:45

davys target price 440 currently 360cent this morning on their website

[liarspoker] 22/8/2006 16:44

Triple Witching ??

Scary......Aaarruuuugggghhhh !! ( howling wolf sound ).

[liarspoker] 22/8/2006 09:03

Looks like people have been reading my above post. :O)

Nice share price action today !!

[liarspoker] 21/8/2006 09:25

Well if the final results increase EPS & Divi by 14% then we should see:

EPS of 20.67 C
Divi of 6.27 C
Final Divi of 4.56 C

Given the current share price of 355 C that gives a multiple of 17.17 which would equate to a PEG of 1.22.

However the end of year is next month, less then 6 weeks so we should really be focusing on 2007 results. Also assuming 14% growth ( although I think it will be higher due to the synergies of the Magna Park move etc )we should see EPS of 23.56 C which on the current multiple would give us a price of about 405 C.

This may not seem like much but with 15% EPS growth the share price should double every 5 years. so 1,000 Euro will be 2,000 in 5 years, which will be 4,000 in 10 years from now, which will be 8,000 in 15 years from now, which will be 16,000 in 20 years from now, which will be 32,000 in 25 years from now.

Add an extra 0 on the end of the figures above and you get my drift. But there's more - factor in the scrip divi which grows at about 15% per year as well........I'll let you finish the sums.

Don't forget that Ireland has an aging and expanding population and with over 40% of the market UDG is positioned phenomenally imo.

[liarspoker] 10/8/2006 14:12

janeann - no problem. :O)

[liarspoker] 10/8/2006 14:09

Added a further 700 Shares this AM.

[janeann] 08/8/2006 22:00

Thank you for the explanation. I will have a closer look.....

d

[liarspoker] 08/8/2006 21:41

You don't try to pick the bottom.

You base your valuation on rates of increase in profits & earnings.

For example we see that EPS has increased by say 15% per year. Last year EPS was 18.13 cents. So we add on the 15% increase that brings us to 20.83 cents.

Put this on a respectable multiple, depends what you want to pay for 15% steady EPS & divi growth, 15, 20 ? Let's say 15, so then the share price for 2006 would be 312. Obviously the market values it on a higher multiple due to steady earnings & divi etc.

However it is important to note that year end is only a few weeks away so we should really be looking at 2007 figures.

We can see that the market puts this on a P/E of 17, so then the EPS still increasing by 15% gives us 24 cents which gives us a price of 4.08 Euro for 2007 which seems about right.

The reason why UDG is popular is the steadiness of earnings. This is a share to buy and to put away in the bottom of the draw and let everything compound.

H1 was still quiet due to moving to Magna & the PPRS effects. However these were only once offs and Magna should bring further economies of scale. With Irelands aging and expanding population I'll be holding these shares for many years yet.

The above workings are simplified obviously and other people may use different measurements etc.

[janeann] 08/8/2006 21:26

well i found this damn difficult to value, especially with the conversion to euros, lots of director selling, and a falling knife; and concluded it didnt look particualry good. But one thing in its favour is it is isable. So how do you manage to pick the bottom.... if you have.

david

[liarspoker] 08/8/2006 16:38

2.9% up - nice.

[liarspoker] 08/8/2006 13:20

Looking good. :O)

[liarspoker] 08/8/2006 12:17

Will we close Blue today ?

[liarspoker] 07/8/2006 17:37

I like the 2005 Annual Report, it's an interesting read:

[liarspoker] 07/8/2006 16:40

Briefly looking at the 2005 Results:

I see that UDG had Return on Retained Earnings of 34.56% and Return on Equity of 17.83%. Also Return on Assets was over 7%.

These figures are pretty good to be repeating year after year especially for a company worth 757m Euro.

So even though ANGL ( different sector I know but another long term holding for me ) is raising dividends at 20% p/A and is increasing EPS by about 30% we can still see that UDG is making better use and making better returns on the above ratios.

Once ANGL growth slows perhaps the tortoise will overtake the hare ?

[liarspoker] 07/8/2006 14:54

Added 3,300 shares in UDG on the ISEQ last Friday.

Don't think we'll see these levels for much longer.

Year end nearly here etc.

Looking forward to compounding my new Scrip divies.

Combined with a rising share price we should see good capital return over the next few years imo. :O)

[tole] 18/7/2006 18:07

Also been following this one a little since its retrace -
last comments from a few weeks back now....



United Drug (Buy, Closing Price EUR3.38)
Diversifying the business.
Analyst: Ian Hunter

United Drug yesterday announced the acquisition of MASTA, a service provider in the travel health field, specialising in the sale and distribution of vaccines, medical information and clinical services. The company paid ?14.5m upfront with an additional consideration of up to ?4.5m payable over the next two years on achievement of profit targets. We believe this equates to 1.7x forecast revenue and 11.2x potential EBIT. The company also announced that it has taken a 25% stake in The Medicare Group, a healthcare and retail organisation in Northern Ireland. Both activities are a slight move away from the traditional United Drug contract wholesale, distribution and sales model. MASTA represents a move into direct sales through branded travel clinics, although it also holds some vaccine distribution rights. The Medicare stake is a move into the retail sector in Northern Ireland, although management note that it is a response to a specific situation and not a change in business strategy.

[liarspoker] 17/7/2006 14:31

Scrips arrived today. :o)

[pharm] 06/7/2006 15:35

I presume the medicare talked about is the belfast pharmacy group.
Can't say I'm madly impressed with udg taking a stake in a retail
pharmacy group.They always say one of their USP's is they are wholesale only.I think they could have found something more exiting also.

[liarspoker] 05/7/2006 09:54

UNITED DRUG ACQUIRES UK BASED VACCINES DISTRIBUTOR FOR Stg#19 MILLION

United Drug plc, a leading provider of services to healthcare manufacturers and
pharmaceutical retailers in the UK and Ireland today (Wednesday, 5th July 2006)
announced that it has acquired the entire share capital of MASTA (Medical
Advisory Service for Travellers Abroad Limited). MASTA is a leading service
provider in the travel health field, specialising in the sale and distribution
of vaccines, medical information and clinical services.

MASTA, based in Leeds, employs 60 people and sells direct to the medical
profession occupational health departments of large organisations, and through
MASTA branded travel clinics throughout the UK. The Company has a long
established high quality reputation for the provision of a comprehensive range
of services to all parties involved in the vaccines market.

The consideration for the acquisition of MASTA is Stg#14.5 million in cash,
payable on completion, plus an additional consideration of up to Stg#4.5 million
payable, based on achievement of agreed profit targets over the next two years.

United Drug also announced that it has made a minority 25% equity investment in
the Medicare Group, a healthcare and retail organisation based in Northern
Ireland. This investment secures and enhances a key business relationship in the
Northern Ireland market and reinforces the Group's commitment to supporting
independent pharmacists. Details of the consideration were not disclosed.

Speaking today, United Drug's Chief Executive, Liam FitzGerald said:

"The acquisition of MASTA is an exciting development for United Drug.
MASTA, as a high quality service provider in the travel health field,
considerably adds to our presence as a provider of healthcare services
in the UK and will provide further opportunities for growth.

"The acquisition of MASTA and our new Northern Ireland investment is
further evidence of our ability as a Group to build on our existing
expertise and broaden our offering of top quality services to our
partners and customers in all the markets in which we operate".

[liarspoker] 27/6/2006 12:26

LOL !!

UDG listed in sector of 'Drug Dealers' !!!

[liarspoker] 23/6/2006 20:13

Welcome DJ.

[d.j. derry] 23/6/2006 18:53

Been looking at these for quite some time.In a market wobble they tend to do well,whatever about the prevailing economy drug/medicine purchases will not be reduced imho.Bought in today in a very modest way but will add slowly.

[slasher16] 16/6/2006 21:37

I am a long term holder of United Drug. They are a class company and one i intend to hold for ever permitting business does exceptionnaly well as it alwats does. However bought 2k of shares in this baby in Feb 05 @ €3.55. The share price hasnt moved though. The thing about United Drug is because of its class track record the mkt often prices up as far as a pe of 24. If u buy at this level u will be waitng a while for earnings to catch up with the price and ultimaely a rise in the price. When United does break above 4 though on the charts sometime in o6/07 i reckon it is goin to 5 very quickly.Its been trading in a 330 to 400 range fr over a year now.Current levels actually represent an attractive entry point both fundementally and technically.

[liarspoker] 06/5/2006 23:50

Crickey - that 270p mark looks though to beat. Will probably break it next time though.

[Abuse team] 03/4/2006 16:08

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