Udg Healthcare Public Share Discussion Threads

[liarspoker] 24/7/2007 08:31

OK I am of the opinion that UDG could be at a buy level again. Let me explain why:

The current price is Euro 4.04. Last years EPS was 20.22 Cents.

OK Average EPS growth is about 14% ( well it's about 17% over the last 5 & 10 years but let's be a little conservative especially since revenue slowed leading up to the March Drug Price Agreements ). So that would show that for 2007 - which ends at the end of September BTW - EPS should be 23.05 Cents ( Adj. Dil ).

Historically UDG has traded on a multiple of over 20 ( average of around 21 or so I think )but even on a P/E of 20 FOR THIS YEAR WHICH ENDS IN SEPTEMBER we would get a Share Price of Euro 4.61.

If we then look forward as the market does from September onwards and post EPS growth again at 14% then we get a new EPS of 26.28 Cents giving a share price of Euro 5.25 Giving a 30% increase from the current price.

As my previous post pointed out the company is performing well. Strong Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss etc etc. And, the scrips make it all the sweeter. :O)

[liarspoker] 23/7/2007 08:26

I was doing a bit of bedtime reading last night and ended up with the 2007 Interim Report in my hands. It actually read better then I remembered and thought that I would highlight a few points:

* Revenue up 'only' 9% but this is due to the one of slow down of trade due to the drugs pricing effect which UDG say the Pharma Wholesale business handled very well. I would expect usual growth of double figures for the full year.

* MASTA performing strongly & ahead of expectations

* Endoscopy performing strongly & ahead of expectations

* Sangers appointed sole distributor of all Pfizer prescription medicines within Northern Ireland by Alliance Boots

* Health Services Executive ( HSE ) awarded the contract for the national supply of all vaccines to United Drug Distributors

* Unitech enjoying 'significant' equipment sales

* Unitech appointed by Thermo Shandon as their exclusive distributor in Ireland

* New Splint enjoying 'significant success' with launch of Mega System C

* Ashfield arms performing well

I have no doubt that with the above points, and the P/L account & B/S looking very strong, that we will have another year of double digit earnings and divi growth.

This share is a classic buy & hold imo. :O)

*

[liarspoker] 20/7/2007 09:55

I just reread this:



Reads well imo and I am happy to keep on holding for the long term. :O)

[liarspoker] 20/7/2007 09:46

Last years trading up date was on the 5th October and the FY Results on the 22nd November.

Around another 10 weeks before things get exciting imo ( unless we see another acquisition or the like ).

[culchi] 18/7/2007 12:39

also got my scrib cert. on monday and my ang. certs today, still rate both highly and hold both as core holdings.

[liarspoker] 18/7/2007 10:49

Funnily enough I received a Dividend Counterfoil ( sort of like a photocopied share cert but not really a share cert )for my other UDG scrip divis today.

Strange how I received a proper share cert for one lot and a Counterfoil for another lot.

[liarspoker] 16/7/2007 11:11

I received one of my divi share certs this AM. Guess I'll receive the other tomorrow. :O)

[what is a login ?] 26/6/2007 09:13

A chubby guy with glasses who mananges small cap funds came on CNBC Europe about an hour ago. I missed the introduction otherwise I'd have taken note of his name. Curiously of all the companies he singled out UDG as an example of value."Biggest pharmaceutical wholesalers in the Republic of Ireland... Packaging company in Belgium....[I didn't know about continental expansion]... fantastically run company [sic]" He said they had held UDG for years.

[liarspoker] 18/6/2007 22:28

I just did a few calculations to see if it was worthwhile to take the scrip divi as opposed to the cash divi over the last few years ( since early 2003 ).
I am delighted to report that the result is firmly positive and so I will continue to take the scrip divi ( same will go for my other 2 long term holds - Anglo Irish Bank & Tesco ).

[liarspoker] 25/5/2007 13:56

Fidelity selling - looks as though they have a matched buyer though:

[liarspoker] 24/5/2007 08:26

Looks like it Slasher.

McGann is next on the 30th of May in Las Vegas - hopefully it will have the same, or even better, effect on the share price ;O)

[slasher16] 23/5/2007 13:15

Fitzgerald must have impressed in London!!

[liarspoker] 23/5/2007 09:30

OK so just as I type the above post the price on the chart moves. Typical !

[liarspoker] 23/5/2007 09:28

We are officially on a new high now by some way. Mid price is 286.5 as confirmed by my monitor and level II. However the charts in this thread show the share price as being 284.25 therefore the chart in the header is wrong.

I wonder why that is ?

[liarspoker] 21/5/2007 07:35

Interesting to see an RNS like this:

Statement re. United Drug Participating in Morgan Stanley 4th Annual Healthcare Services Seminar & Bank of America Healthcare Co



United Drug PLCUnited Drug plc, a leading provider of services to healthcare manufacturers and
pharmaceutical retailers in the UK and Ireland today announced Liam FitzGerald,
CEO, will be participating in the Morgan Stanley 4th Annual Healthcare Services
Seminar in the Great Eastern Hotel, London on May 23rd.
United Drug CFO, Barry McGrane will also present at The Bank of America
Healthcare Conference in the Four Seasons Hotel, Las Vegas on May 30th at
12.40pm ET. This presentation will be webcast and can be accessed through the
following link one hour after the conclusion of the live event until June 15th,
2007.
copy of the presentation for both events is available on United Drug's
website.

[slasher16] 17/5/2007 12:53

ya totally agree i think the shares are worth circa 5euro this yr let alone nxt year. Happy to hold forever!!

[liarspoker] 17/5/2007 09:47

Here's something else I noticed and that's that the price on my monitor does not correspond with the graph on my Quote page nor with the graph on this thread. And to make matters worse the graph on the Quote page and the graph on this thread don't correspond with each other either !!

[liarspoker] 17/5/2007 08:18

Slasher - I was playing around with some numbers last night and from the last 4 reports ( both FY & Interim ) I noted that the average increase in EPS was 14.46%. In depth analysis year on year was harded because of the different accounting principles used ( ie IFRS ) but if we take 14.46% increase as a guide then in September we should see EPS of 23.14C ( Fully diluted excluding intangible amortisation & exceptionals ). That puts todays price on a P/E of around 17.93 which is indeed a bit lower then the P/E that UDG has been trading on. On a multiple of 20 we would get a share price of 4.63 Euro which means that with our 14.46% increase figure - we can expect a share price of 5.30 Euro next year ( which will show that our scrip dividends are working hard ). And there's another 25 years of holding for me. :O)

[liarspoker] 16/5/2007 23:01

Note the comment about market share in the above link.

Note also the statement about market share from the UDG website:

'These companies offer different services to the market place. With a market share of 54% the C.S.O. division of United Drug offers a broad spectrum of sales and marketing service for every type of pharmaceutical company.'

[liarspoker] 16/5/2007 22:56

Looks like someone else is looking at the health sector for the long term Slasher - couldn't be in better company imo:



:O)

[slasher16] 16/5/2007 19:12

Ya we need to go european for the mkt to like us because the sentiment is poor towards the stock cause of the drug pricing agreement. For example if we get eps of circa 23cent for this year. (near 11 cent for half one) the stock should be worth about 5euro on a p/e of 22 which for united drug is bout right historically.
Also we are trading at a significant discount to sector at moment. The European element may inspire the brokers. All brokers predicting 22cent for this yr and price targets of 4.40. However if we do one or 2 decent acquisitions we could surprise on upside. So far the acquisitions according to brokers are not goin to make much difference to their forecasts. I think they could be proven wrong. Seem like new high today Liars. Tommorrow should be interesting!!

[liarspoker] 16/5/2007 12:53

I like the idea of European expansion Slasher. The last few acquisitions have been in the UK. I am not sure if the competition authority would allow any more acquisitions in Ireland as UDG have over 50% market share here. Europe would be the next logical step. Perhaps one day we will come under the radar of the likes such as Schering-Plough etc.

[slasher16] 16/5/2007 12:49

Yes liars i have noticed the exact same thing. We have a triple or quadruple top at this stage at circa 2.80. However on a couple of those days like today the price has gone to 2.85 or 2.86 like today and it looks like we are breaking out but then we close at 2.80. never mind our day will come.

[liarspoker] 16/5/2007 12:28

XD today.

SP starting to look nice too. However i have noticed that the share may make a new high during the day only to be pulled back later on in the afternoon or during the closing auction. We'll have to wait to see if we hold todays new high.

[liarspoker] 10/5/2007 08:30

New high - people like the results. Let's hope that we can maintain this level through the summer.