Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Udg Healthcare Public Limited Company LSE:UDG London Ordinary Share IE0033024807 ORD EUR0.05
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.50 0.21% 716.00 337,947 16:35:27
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
714.00 715.50 724.00 705.00 709.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food & Drug Retailers 1,151.66 65.88 20.45 34.2 1,744
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:38:05 O 34,912 716.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
03/6/202013:33United Drug - no valium here !!608
16/9/200412:34UDG - Excellent results today10

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Udg Healthcare Public Daily Update: Udg Healthcare Public Limited Company is listed in the Food & Drug Retailers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker UDG. The last closing price for Udg Healthcare Public was 714.50p.
Udg Healthcare Public Limited Company has a 4 week average price of 683.50p and a 12 week average price of 584p.
The 1 year high share price is 846p while the 1 year low share price is currently 423.40p.
There are currently 243,520,371 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 239,192 shares. The market capitalisation of Udg Healthcare Public Limited Company is £1,743,605,856.36.
mfhmfh: share price still below CFO's purchase of 20,000 shares at 740p in August this year. Sellers all gone I think. GLA.
liarspoker: Interestly enough my high end expectations were for 26.3c EPS so add another cent onto that for 27.3c. That gives a multiple of 12.82 which is fairly cheap for UDG given that it was trading on a P/E north of 16, which was a little lower then the long term EPS growth average, during the last few years. EPS growth over the last 5 years has averaged at 15% ( and still this board has tumbleweed all over it ) so therefore a multiple of 15 seems appropriate as during a recession people still need drugs and its associated services. Of course the HSE decision could bring EPS up or down either way but I think that there's a long way to go until we get a concrete decision. Anyhow there seems to be a difference of 2.18 on the multiple so a rerating should see the price rise by 60c which is 17%. Given that end of year is September, which we are nearly at, it is also nearly time to start looking at 2009 which should boost EPS by an extra 14 - 15% or so. Giving an appropriate share price of around 470c but more likely around 420 - 450c if the market remains cautious.
liarspoker: I like blabbing on to myself. :O) I just find it strange how everyone seems to be chasing the latest trendy share when this is growing at about 15% per year. At this rate the share price doubles every 5 years, more if you take the scrip divi. Have you missed the boat as regards getting them cheap - I can't answer that djderry, only you can. ;o) As I see it from an EPS perspective: Historically EPS growth has been about 15% per annum therefore a multiple of 15 would be suitable. It looks like UDG will do 25 cents this year therefore an approximate price would be 375 cents ( about where we are now ). From an intrinsic value point of view: You can take the 375 cent figure to start with and add a little for credible management, a market leading position in Ireland, the move into diversification of higher margin sectors, brand names etc etc. You might get 400c as fair value, you might get 440c for fair value. It depends on the individual. You can also deduct a little due to regulation etc. Anyhow that's enough rambling for me but a final thought might be to wait and hope a summer dip will occur ( like in the last few years ) and add then on a 10% discount from the 375c figure to get a little margin of safety so add at say sub 340c if you get the chance.
liarspoker: Sorry, my mistake. The outlook is in there and looks good. :O) Say EPS increases by 13% over the next 5 years: Assuming 2008 EPS ends up at 25c that gives EPS of 46c at end 2013. This would equate a share price of around 7 Euro on a multiple of 15. On EPS growth of 15% p/a we can expect a share price of around 7.50 at end 2013. This would be higher if we use a higher multiple of course. imo this is possible as we should be in an upward market cycle in 5 years ( touch wood ). Historically we have seen a dip in the share price over the late summer. Perhaps it might be a good idea to buy in or add a few on the dip should one occur this year. Should be a nice bagger from 3.50 Euro......add in the scrips and it should more than double bag. Slowly does it here. :O)
liarspoker: Ok here's a little dividend exercise: Since I have been a holder UDG dividends have increased by 15% p/a. Therefore my divi yield is currently a little over 4%. So according to the article if the divies keep increasing by 15% p/a over the next 10 years ( which it could looking at the past 20 years and future prospects ) then my yield will be around 16.5%. If the then divi is about 1.8% of the share price which it historically has been then we can expect UDGs share price to be just over 16 Euro - a 4 bagger from here. Makes sense too since 15% growth doubles a share price in 5 years. Therefore 4 Euro doubled in 5 years is 8 Euro which when doubled over the next 5 years = 16 Euro ( ah - behold the magic of compounding :O)
liarspoker: Hmmmm - well I am short UDG in the stock challenge but of course I remain long in reality. Does that mean though that when I go short in the stock challenge that the share price rises in reality ? 300p soon anyone ? ( of course since I've said that the share price will now fall back, I'd put a tenner on it ).
culchi: thanks liars. o/t i noticed you bought a small holding in sfr. I am also watching this stock since it was highlighted earlier this year. I looked at it again this morning but decided to go with sgi.which as you know ,i had on my radar. I hope to add sfr to my portfolio in the coming months(price permitting)when some funds become available from cnm which is the subject of a takeover . This has been a winner for me, held for past three years and resisted temptation to sell(bought at 45 pence) . It, together with bur. ,gng, and wcc have proved most successful this year. As you know, i bought kingspan at 17 euro , much too early.The irish stocks have taken a hammering and will take some time to recover even ang. which should report good results next week. udg share price has disappointed over the past eighteen months, but it has excellent management and seems to be moving into a higher margin business. Long term its a worthwhile part of a portfolio.
liarspoker: Think I'll enjoy these myself in 20 years JohnnyAD. :O) Share price not doing much today which, in this market, is a good sign I suppose. Say we do 12% EPS growth this year - that would give EPS of say 25.8c - OK lets say 25.5c to be conservative. Therefore on historical P/E figures ( digital look has an average P/E of 16.625 for the previous 4 years ) we should see a share price of 423.94c so that implies that the shares are trading at a 26% discount.
liarspoker: This is the Independents view: United Drug's margin squeeze Sunday October 07 2007 THE market responded positively to pharmaceutical distributor United Drug's upbeat trading statement with the shares ending the week up almost 8 per cent at €3.57. That's the good news. The bad news is that the United Drug share price has been absolutely hammered this year, falling by 25 per cent from its May peak before this week's partial recovery. United Drug's problem is that as a distributor it produces nothing. This means that, as governments seek to reduce the drugs costs of their public health systems companies such as United Drug increasingly find themselves being squeezed between the big pharmaceutical companies and governments. Ireland is no exception to this rule. Last year the HSE did a deal with the drug companies under which they cut the prices of drugs coming off patent by 35 per cent. The drug companies also agreed that the prices they charged in Ireland would be no more than the average price charged in nine other EU countries. Last month the HSE took the axe to the lush mark-ups it pays to wholesalers. Up to now it has been paying a 17.6 per cent mark up on drugs sold through pharmacists and 5 per cent on medicines sold through hospitals. These mark-ups were amongst the highest int the EU. Not any more. From the beginning of next year the wholesale mark-up on drugs sold through pharmacists will fall to 8 per cent while the hospitals' mark-up will drop to only 3 per cent. In the face of such an apparently massive reduction in its margins the only surprise about the recent drop in the United Drug share price is that it didn't fall even further. In fact it was the retail pharmacists who protested most loudly about the cuts in wholesalers' margins. This was because in practice the wholesalers were already passing on about half of the mark-up which they received from the HSE to the chemists. The fact that most of the initial pain will be felt by the pharmacists means that profits at United Drug will probably rise this year to about €60m, an increase of about 15 per cent with some optimists predicting pre-tax profits of €70m in 2008. This combination of rising profits and shrinking profits is unsustainable, It can't last. Sooner rather than later the retail pharmacists will seek to recover some of their lost margin at the wholesalers' expense. At the same time, stuck between monopoly producers, the drug companies, and monopoly purchasers, governments, the wholesalers margins are going to remain under pressure. At the current share price United Drug is capitalised at just over €800m. Add in debt and the total enterprise value rises to just under €850m. That's over 17 times likely 2007's after-tax profits of about €49m. Still way, way too dear.
liarspoker: OK I am of the opinion that UDG could be at a buy level again. Let me explain why: The current price is Euro 4.04. Last years EPS was 20.22 Cents. OK Average EPS growth is about 14% ( well it's about 17% over the last 5 & 10 years but let's be a little conservative especially since revenue slowed leading up to the March Drug Price Agreements ). So that would show that for 2007 - which ends at the end of September BTW - EPS should be 23.05 Cents ( Adj. Dil ). Historically UDG has traded on a multiple of over 20 ( average of around 21 or so I think )but even on a P/E of 20 FOR THIS YEAR WHICH ENDS IN SEPTEMBER we would get a Share Price of Euro 4.61. If we then look forward as the market does from September onwards and post EPS growth again at 14% then we get a new EPS of 26.28 Cents giving a share price of Euro 5.25 Giving a 30% increase from the current price. As my previous post pointed out the company is performing well. Strong Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss etc etc. And, the scrips make it all the sweeter. :O)
Udg Healthcare Public share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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