Udg Healthcare Public Share Discussion Threads

[liarspoker] 22/11/2007 14:01

With a decrease in the multiple these are fairly valued at the moment imo but you have to think that with a return of at least 15% year on year ( from both EPS growth and divi ) then the shares should be valued at a multiple of 15 if not higher therefore a fairer valuation would be just under 4 Euro per share.

Of course if they do 10% growth over the next 20 years ( which is possible given the aging expanding population and the fact that price controls will not always be in place ) then 1,000 Euro will turn into 6,727.50 Euro. Obviously that figure will increase much more if you take advantage of the Scrip divi.

So on that basis I think that they are a strong buy. :O)

[slasher16] 22/11/2007 13:35

Take a look at this. Dolmen used have a target of 4.40 on UDG. They now have 3.80 target as they say the recent rerating of Irish shares means they must decrease there target to a 15 multiple instead of an 18 multiple. This is rubbish but i suppose they are right in the short term. If we were in a bull mkt with these reults and being stuck in a narrow range they would have upgraded there long held target of 4.40 to say 4.60 im sure which 18 times the 08 eps consensus. I think when the mkt changes then we will see upgrades from the very wise brokers and this can hit 5 very quickly. For instance UDG only has 20% Debt to equity ratio. It said in indo 2day they would be comfortable with 50-70% gearing. I am comfortable with 15% eps for next year no prob. This gives foward EPS of 26.5 at 18 times is price of 480. What do you honestly think these are worth Liars??

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 16:00

I agree with the above post. I held GNG & WCC earlier both sold for a nice profit. Back in GNG as we speak though - results tomorrow.

Agreed with UDG being a worthwhile part of the portfolio - does exactly what it says on the tin. 10 - 15% grow year on year - takes about 5 years to double in value.

Just buy, sit back, relax and collect the Scrips imo. :O)

[culchi] 21/11/2007 15:55

thanks liars. o/t i noticed you bought a small holding in sfr. I am also watching this stock since it was highlighted earlier this year. I looked at it again this morning but decided to go with sgi.which as you know ,i had on my radar. I hope to add sfr to my portfolio in the coming months(price permitting)when some funds become available from cnm which is the subject of a takeover . This has been a winner for me, held for past three years and resisted temptation to sell(bought at 45 pence) . It, together with bur. ,gng, and wcc have proved most successful this year. As you know, i bought kingspan at 17 euro , much too early.The irish stocks have taken a hammering and will take some time to recover even ang. which should report good results next week. udg share price has disappointed over the past eighteen months, but it has excellent management and seems to be moving into a higher margin business. Long term its a worthwhile part of a portfolio.

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 11:59

I agree 100% with you culchi - welcome to SGI btw. I am just comparing them to SFR and a few other holdings I have and it looks the best on fundies. Much better than UDG too btw but I am happy to hold UDG for obvious reasons.

Don't be a stranger either here or on the SGI thread. :O)

[culchi] 21/11/2007 11:47

solid results from a solid company. Still holding all my stocks but not inclined to spend time looking at the monitor during the current debacle. Some real bargains available , o/t,noticed the drop in sgi this morning liars and have just added them to my long term portfolio. I still believe concentrating on good quality stocks, like udg which i have held for about six years ,is the best and safest investment. I find when i spend too much time at the monitor, i am tempted to invest in hot stocks .

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 11:18

I am sure that your patience will be rewarded Slasher. You can see that the company is improving year on year therefore the share price will have to respond soon. Obviously we are in a bearish market which doesn't help but like you say once the market firms we should see a breakout of the trading range.

In the meantime sit back, relax and keep collecting those Scrips. :O)

[slasher16] 21/11/2007 11:12

Hi guys very happy with results. When market returns to bullish these should rebound very sharply out of this 3 year range. I hope my pattience is rewarded as have since Feb05 and share price hasnt changed. These should be pushing towards range of 4.00 to 4.60. Why not 17 to 20 current earnings. They are a tesco like share they are ringing in 155 EPS growth year in year.

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 09:58

And from Davy as well:

2008 EPS = 25.6c ( up from 25.29c )

2009 EPS = '( to just over 28c). This puts UDG on a 2008 P/E of 13.3X, which modestly discounts the sector and does not factor in the prospect of accelerated growth through further acquisition activity.'

Davy also talks about the 'impressive cashflow generation'.

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 09:52

Upgrades are in from NCB:

2008 EPS = 25.55c ( up from 25.03c )

2009 EPS = 28c ( up from 27.34c )

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 08:53

Think I'll enjoy these myself in 20 years JohnnyAD. :O)

Share price not doing much today which, in this market, is a good sign I suppose.

Say we do 12% EPS growth this year - that would give EPS of say 25.8c - OK lets say 25.5c to be conservative. Therefore on historical P/E figures ( digital look has an average P/E of 16.625 for the previous 4 years ) we should see a share price of 423.94c so that implies that the shares are trading at a 26% discount.

[johnnyad] 21/11/2007 08:30

Yep good news Liar, mine are well put away for the kids to enjoy!

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 07:36

United Drug FY profits rise to 55.7 mln eur on diversification plan




LONDON (Thomson Financial) - United Drug PLC, the Ireland-based
pharmaceutical wholesaler and services company, reported higher full year
profits of 55.7 mln eur, up from 51.7 mln, due to continued diversification into
pharmaceutical services.
Group revenues were 1.58 bln eur, up 8 pct on 2006, while basic EPS was 20.9
cents, compared with 19.3 cents last year.
The Irish firm has traditionally been a wholesale pharmaceutical supplier to
pharmacies but is currently diversifying into healthcare services for pharma
companies. United yesterday bought Procon conference, a company that organises
pharmaceutical conferences, for 5.4 mln stg.
United Drug CEO Liam Fitzgerald said United has broadened its range of
services in the past 12 months. He also pointed to growth potential in the US.
"The USA continues to be well positioned to deliver growth in what is a
large and somewhat underdeveloped contract sales marketplace," he said.
He said the company was confident of delivering continued growth.
[e-mail]
jh1/ra

COPYRIGHT

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 07:23

Oops - that didn't turn out well. Tables are always difficult to post on ADVFN.

Let's look at adjusted EPS forecasts again:

Goodbody - 22.2c

NCB - 22.46c


Actual Adjusted EPS - 23.02c

[liarspoker] 21/11/2007 07:21

Very nicely ahead. :O)

Wrap 'em up and leave 'em in the bottom draw imo and come back in 15 years:



21 November 2007


United Drug plc

Preliminary Announcement of Results

Year ended 30 September 2007


Highlights

IFRS Intangible Adjusted Increase
based amortisation on 2006
Euro'000 Euro'000 Euro'000

Group revenue 1,583,622 - 1,583,622 8%

Operating profit 60,038 6,554 66,592 17%

Profit before tax 55,773 6,554 62,327 15%

Diluted earnings per share 20.81 2.21 23.02 14%
(cent)

Dividend per share (cent) 7.30 - 7.30 15%

[liarspoker] 20/11/2007 22:03

I must say that I am looking forward to the results tomorrow.

This is not really a share I pay too much attention too when it is not having its moment in the spotlight, ie results or acquisition time, but I like to give it a good going over when new results are released ( or when something else tickles my fancy of course ).

Anyhow say that UDG did 22.20c EPS last year and they do 10% EPS growth this year giving a figure of 24.42c. That means that at the current price we are trading on a forward multiple of about 13.75 which is a long way from the usual 18 - 22 figure.

Granted the markets are in a state of disarray and arguably growth is slowing ( at least organic growth is ) so perhaps a lower multiple is justified. 2 years ago this share would have been around the 450c mark by now. Sure that is too expensive at the moment and realistically I am looking for a share price of just under 400c for this year with anything extra being a bonus. :O)

Edit: To those reading this thread for the first time - the above charts are in Pence, the company reports in Euro Cents ( just in case you are scratching your heads reading my figures and looking at the graph ).

[liarspoker] 20/11/2007 21:57

United Drug Retirement of Director




RNS Number:1382I
United Drug PLC
20 November 2007


Retirement of Non-Executive Director at United Drug plc


United Drug plc today (Tuesday, 20th November 2007) announced the retirement of
Dr. Dermot Egan as a Non-Executive Director.

The Chairman and Board of United Drug plc thanked Dermot for his outstanding
contribution to the Group over his 15 years as a Non-Executive Director and
latterly as the Senior Independent Non-Executive Director.

The Chairman and Board of United Drug plc wish Dermot every happiness for the
future.

Ends. Tuesday, 20th November 2007

[liarspoker] 20/11/2007 14:59

Forecasts for tomorrow:

Goodbody:

T/O up 8% to Euro 1.6b
EDIT up 13% to about Euro 59m
Adjusted EPS up 10% to 22.2c

NCB:

Operating Profit up 14% to Euro 62.4m
Adjusted EPS up 11% to 22.46c

[liarspoker] 20/11/2007 12:42

Another acquisition - released before 2007 FY results tomorrow ( very interesting imo perhaps UDG don't want the acquisition to take from good results ):

United Drug Acquisition




RNS Number:0862I
United Drug PLC
20 November 2007



UNITED DRUG ACQUIRES UK BASED PHARMACEUTICAL

SALES AND MARKETING SERVICES COMPANY

Dublin and London - Tuesday, 20th November 2007: United Drug plc, a leading
international provider of services to healthcare manufacturers and
pharmaceutical retailers today announced that it has acquired the entire issued
share capital of Procon Conferences Limited ("Procon") a UK pharmaceutical
conference services company based in Harrogate, North Yorkshire.

Procon provides full corporate event management services targeted specifically
at the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector. These services include venue
finding, association and secretariat membership, delegate registration through
to full event management. The business currently employs 28 people, including
senior management, all of whom will remain with the business.

The consideration for the acquisition is Stg#4.2 million in cash, payable on
completion, plus an additional consideration of up to Stg#1.2 million payable
based on achievement of agreed targets over the next 12 months.

Speaking about the Company's acquisition today, United Drug's Chief Executive,
Liam FitzGerald said:

"We are delighted to announce the acquisition of Procon. The company is
a well established and very highly regarded supplier of value-added
services to the healthcare sector. Procon will form an important part of
our Contract Sales and Consultancy Outsourcing division and help us
broaden the range of services we provide to our customers.

"I would like to welcome all management and staff of Procon to the
United Drug Group and we look forward to working with them to build upon
their success to date, as we continue our development as a leading
international healthcare services company".

ENDS. Tuesday, 20th November 2007

[liarspoker] 15/10/2007 15:31

Hopefully we will be rewarded for our patience soon kid?!

I am still happy to hold for the long term.

Put it this way - if UDG keep up their double digit growth ( that's say 8% EPS growth and a 2% Divi ) then a grand in 25 years time will be worth just over Euro 10,830. :O)

I expect a buy out before then though but we'll see.

[slasher16] 15/10/2007 15:20

Very nice liars. On holidays this week. Very interesting i went to visit my stockmarket memntor this morning. He has a fairly significant portfolio. Rang portfolio mgr 2day. Very bullish on udg, results in November to be vgood i believe, also this thing on wholsale to be passed to consumer, no cause to sell!! Acquisition this afternoon! UDGs vision statement to become an international healthcare company. Hopefully we will be rewarded for our patience soon kid?!

[liarspoker] 15/10/2007 14:29

US Acquisition:

United Drug Acquisition




RNS Number:7161F
United Drug PLC
15 October 2007



UNITED DRUG ACQUIRES US BASED PHARMACEUTICAL SALES AND MARKETING SERVICES
COMPANY


Dublin and London, 15th October, 2007: United Drug Plc, a leading provider of
services to healthcare manufacturers and pharmaceutical retailers in Ireland,
the UK and Continental Europe today (Monday 15th October 2007) announced that it
has acquired the entire issued share capital of Alliance Healthcare Information
Inc ("Alliance") a pharmaceutical sales and marketing services company based in
Ivyland, Pennsylvania in the United States.

Alliance provides a range of call centre solutions to support Pharma companies
in the US market with their sales and marketing requirements, including medical
affairs information, patient compliance support and clinical trials recruitment.
The company's communication centre is staffed by medically trained professionals
and they provide services to a broad range of major pharmaceutical companies.
The business currently employs 163 people, including senior management, all of
whom will remain with the business.

The consideration for the acquisition is $9.5 million in cash, paid on
completion, plus additional consideration of up to $1 million payable based on
achievement of agreed targets over the next 12 months.

Speaking about the Company's acquisition today, United Drug's Chief Executive,
Liam FitzGerald said:

"We are delighted to announce the acquisition of Alliance. This is a highly
professional operation providing a range of value-add services to aid
pharmaceutical companies sales and marketing efforts. Alliance brings additional
scale to our existing US Contract Sales Outsourcing and Consultancy business and
will allow us to broaden our service offering and customer relationships in the
US market."

"I would like to welcome all management and staff of Alliance to the United Drug
organisation and look forward to working with them to build upon their success
to date and to further our development as a leading international healthcare
services company."

Edgemont Capital Partners acted as financial advisor to Alliance Healthcare
Information in this transaction.



ENDS. Monday,15th October 2007

[liarspoker] 15/10/2007 08:33

Well Mrs Liars is a manager in a local hospital and she reckons that the HSE will stand tough against the pharmacies as they are making so much money already. Regulation was always a risk with UDG but the opposite is true too, deregulation is always a chance. As Buffett says try to invest in unregulated utilities.

If the HSE stands tough UDG's pricing power will be damaged and I always thought that pricing power was a good component of strength of UDG.

I like the management though so it will be interesting to see how they handle the situation. I look forward to being updated at the end of November.