Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 21/6/2023 13:09

And a few (not many really) for the CFO

Price and volume Price Volume
GBP0.2762 35,500
---------------------------------------- ----------------- ------------
d) Aggregated information
- Aggregated volume 35,500
- Price GBP9,805.46
---------------------------------------- -------------------------------
e) Date of the transaction 20.06.2023

[subsurface] 21/6/2023 07:05

The window is open so the other directors have no excuse!

[xxnjr] 20/6/2023 23:32

alfiex thats the 1st time in a while a Director has actually coughed up their own cash. Good sign.....

[alfiex] 20/6/2023 18:20

Tullow Oil PLC Director/PDMR ShareholdingSource: UK Regulatory (RNS & others)TIDMTLWRNS Number : 3450DTullow Oil PLC20 June 2023NOTIFICATION OF TRANSACTIONS OF PERSONS DISCHARGING MANAGERIAL RESPONSIBILITIES1 Details of the person discharging managerial responsibilities/person closely associated a) Name Roald Goethe ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- 2 Reason for the notification ------------------------------------------------------------------------- a) Position/status Non-Executive Director ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- b) Initial notification Initial notification /Amendment ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- 3 Details of the issuer, emission allowance market participant, auction platform, auctioneer or auction monitor ------------------------------------------------------------------------- a) Name Tullow Oil plc ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- b) LEI 2138003EYHWO75RKS857 ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- 4 Details of the transaction: section to be repeated for (i) each type of instrument; (ii) each type of transaction; (iii) each date; and (iv) each place where transactions have been conducted ------------------------------------------------------------------------- a) Description of Ordinary shares of 10p each the financial instrument, type of instrument GB0001500809 Identification code ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- b) Nature of the Purchase of ordinary shares transaction ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- c) Price and volume Price Volume 1) GBP0.2736 50,000 2) GBP0.2648 50,000 3) GBP0.2650 50,000 4) GBP0.2657 100,000 ------------------------------------ --------------------- ------------ d) Aggregated information - Aggregated volume 250,000 - Price 1) GBP13,680 2) GBP13,240 3) GBP13,250 4) GBP26,570 ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- e) Date of the transaction 19.06.2023 ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- f) Place of the transaction London Stock Exchange (XLON) ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- Name of officer of issuer responsible for making notification: Adam Holland

[badger36] 20/6/2023 10:02

Very encouraging as per Davy "Tullow Oil debt buybackTullow has confirmed that it has increased its tender offer consideration from $75m to $100m on its 7% $800m senior notes due in March 2025. It has acquired $166.5m at an average price of 60%. The weighted average price of tender offers not accepted was 75%. The company has therefore reduced its net debt by $66.5m, which is 4% of the total at year end. It will also save $19.8m in future coupon payments and this will be EPS accretive. The combined benefit equates to an immediate 86.3% return on investment. With the bond recently trading at 55% and its share price trading on a P/E of 1x, despite leverage that is far below historical levels, the sector is clearly being starved of debt and equity capital. The fear and loathing in the sector has serious consequences in terms of underinvestment.Meanwhile physical demand hits new all-time highsThe IEA has increased its expected growth in oil demand from 2.2m b/d to 2.4m b/d in 2023 to a new all-time high of 102.2m b/d. In its new medium-term report to 2028, it now expects the global consumption of oil to continue to grow to new highs each year to 105.7m b/d. This could well be conservative as the IEA has consistently underestimated demand especially from emerging markets.Dangerous dichotomyThe world has been able to meet demand growth up until now, through the following:sale of strategic reserves by the US and others;strong production from US shale;stronger than expected production from sanctioned countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela; andsignificant selling by investors on futures markets, reducing speculative positions towards ten-year lows.As a result, prices have softened. However, it is unclear whether any of these factors will meet future demand growth and it is possible that some of them could even reverse and become headwinds.Policies that starve a sector of capital, when it is fundamental to the functioning of the global economy, and at a time when demand continues to make new highs – create significant inflationary risks.

[subsurface] 19/6/2023 18:30

Thanks for the informative posts .
Africa Energy Forum 2023
The 25th edition of the Africa Energy Forum journey to Nairobi, Kenya, where we will host it from 20-23 June 2023.
Hope for a Kenya update.

[waldron] 19/6/2023 17:37

[United Kingdom] TULLOW OIL PLC (TLW)

London Stock Exchange - 16:35:01 19/06/2023 BST


27.58 GBX +8.58%

[leoneobull] 19/6/2023 17:32

Hello Mr Odey

[1224saj] 19/6/2023 15:51

Explains the 7%

[xxnjr] 19/6/2023 15:33

Ah that's good. Amounts owing originally/now

2026 10.25% Bonds: Originally $1.8bn - $100m - 100m = $1.6bn now.
[after mandatory annual $100m principal reduction for years 2022 and 2023]

2025 7.0% Bonds: Originally $800m - $166.5m tendered today = $633.5m now.

Bonds owing reduced from $2.6bn to 2.23bn in 2 years. That will save some interest compared to 2 years ago.

Another tanker loading from Jubilee today suggests that the new well still performing more than ok with gross field about 79K to 80K. And looks like Jubilee 2023 1st half will average about 73K. (it was below 68K until new well recently)

Should get a trading update sometime 2nd week July.

[mcsean2164] 19/6/2023 14:06

Many here have been pointing out this opportunity for months. Nice to see management using their brains for a change but I'm not sure if doing the bare minimum is a game changer...

[mccracken227] 19/6/2023 13:40

I think this restores some faith in management knowing what they are doing

[excalibur91] 19/6/2023 12:25

Tullow Oil PLC - Result of Tender Offer for 2025 Notes #TLW @TullowOilplc

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/d956111b-25db-4815-992b-d3cdc1753ebd #voxmarkets

$60m saved in an instant.....o/.....

[thommie] 19/6/2023 11:59

Wow. This rns is superior. Why would you even use money on exploration or development if you can gain on 80m$ with such a simple transaction. That was a very smart move. I wish they repeat it! Buy your own debt at 60% its original value and in addition save interest rates on it. They should use their 500m revolving credit facility to buy more for an instant effect on net debt by saving 40% of the bonds original value! That would immediately result in a gain of 300m$ plus 100m$ saved interest rate over the 3 years time till maturity of the bond. LOL

[bootycall] 19/6/2023 11:05

Index rebalancing coming. Changes between small cap and FTSE 250. Hedge funds like to play the trade, driving price down the Tullow share price by shorting and then buying off the index funds at the close of business the Friday before the rebalance. Counterintuitively, the “drop outs” often fare quite well after the changes are announced as they constitute a large part of the small cap indices. This may have explained the price moves (manipulation) over the last few months. I own the shares. DYOR

[badger36] 19/6/2023 08:51

Friday was triple witching

[xxnjr] 19/6/2023 08:32

Friday 47m shares traded, including

25.4p 23,040,199 'UT' 16:35:16hrs

25.41p 6,248,115 'O' 16:58:20hrs
25.45p 6,248,115 'O' 16:58:20hrs
25.45p 6,248,115 'O' 16:45:52hrs

Maybe high volume linked to take up of Bond Tender Offer?

[chopsy] 18/6/2023 17:59

Farrugia, TLW have just over 35% of JSE, the rest is Kosmos, Oxy, Ghana.

[thommie] 14/6/2023 10:02

Thats absolutely possible. But do you think it would be worth the risk to pay 200m$ for an exploration drill to reach this deeper targets and in the end maybe again end up with a duster? Even if they would find a gusher. The capex and time required to bring it into production wouldnt be anything tullow could do. It would need a carry farm out agreement with a major, which would not be guaranteed... In the meantime the debt burden would lead to additional costs over the years that would at least double or triple those costs in the end. Just think about kenya or uganda where tullow invested billions to buy exploration acreage and drill exploration wells just to carry the debt and interests for that since nearly 2 decades now and get bought out with only a part of the costs they once had in uganda and in best case in kenya too. I dont think thats worth the risk. Tullows strategy to deploy capex to lower risk near field development or exploration seems much more suitable to me... You should stop dreaming about big explo finds, even if they find sth that doesnt guarantee they earn sth with it in the end...

[mccracken227] 14/6/2023 08:48

Looking at the slides it does seem that the Liza finds are deeper, but I am certainly no expert lol

[subsurface] 14/6/2023 08:06

Agree Alfiex, on one of the wells there was a lower target but not drilled think it may of been Joe

[alfiex] 14/6/2023 06:38

Maybe we didn't drill down deep enough?

[subsurface] 14/6/2023 06:27

Guyana news update from Corentyne block drilling.

CGX Energy Update: Wei-1 Reaches Total Depth, 71 Feet of
Net Oil Pay Discovered in Secondary Targets in the
Maastrichtian and Campanian,
Testing of Primary Targets in the Santonian has Commenced

[badger36] 13/6/2023 11:13

Davy ViewTullow Oil has announced a tender offer for a portion of its 2025 senior notes in cash to improve its balance sheet efficiency. This reflects confidence in its ability to execute its business plan and refinance its debts in due course. The company is also considering its options with its Espoir field in Cote d'Ivoire.Tender offer detailsTullow has announced a total tender consideration in cash of $75m of its outstanding 7.0% coupon senior notes due in March 2025. The company has the right to increase or decrease the amount. These notes have an outstanding principal amount of $800m. The price is to be determined by an unmodified Dutch auction procedure with a minimum purchase price of 55.5%. The deadline for the receipt of all valid tenders of notes is 16.00 on June 16th, and settlement is expected to take place on June 20th.Buybacks while on a P/E of 1xThe tender offer will improve the capital structure. At the end of 2022 Tullow had cash of $636m as well as undrawn credit facilities of $500m and gross debt of $2.5bn. It will also be very value accretive as the 2025 notes have a yield to maturity of over 48%. The tender offer could remove non-core holders of the debt and improve the company's ability to refinance its debt, which includes $1.8bn of 10.25% senior notes due in May 2026. Valuations imply the market is sceptical of the company's ability to refinance. However, we estimate $800m of free cashflow by end-2025, leading to net debt of only $1bn – which is less than 1x EBITDAX. The stock trades on a P/E of only 1x and is effectively trading as a call option on the refinancing. Energy companies with leverage that is low by historical standards are being starved of debt and equity capital, and this is a major global issue. We expect associated sector underinvestment to drive price inflation in the future.Cote d'IvoireThe company has also indicated that it is considering its strategic options on its interest in the Espoir field in Cote d'Ivoire with no formal commitments at this stage. This is part of its capital allocation strategy to focus on its highest return assets, which include Jubilee in Ghana. Cote d'Ivoire contributed 1.8 kboepd to group working interest production in 2022, which was only 3% of the total.