Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 29/9/2022 15:47

Yes but revenue in dollars. It's neutral. We don't need to pay down debt like today but given Plan A has failed, just feel reducing debt ought to be THE priority rather than falling someway down the list behind growing production both organically and through acquisitions. The expense of growing production means there's not a lot left to pay down the debt. With the 2025's currently at 69% why on earth wouldn't you buy some bonds back?

[mcsean2164] 29/9/2022 15:11

Yeah, not great debt dominated in dollars... It's such an awful investment for me anyway. Can't understand it anymore probably need to sit down and do some study.

Assets seem good, debt high relative to market cap but given cash flow one might think it's manageable.

[alfiex] 29/9/2022 15:05

Looks like this is a disaster down 6% what if anything will lift it? IF Kenya ever happens whats it worth? A long road to recovery and maybe £1 just a dream

[mcsean2164] 29/9/2022 14:54

Is there an urgent need to pay down debt? Debt not due to be rolled over for a while. Who knows maybe inflation will match the interest rate...

CNE is a pr disaster but hopefully our position improves with the continued high oil prices.

[xxnjr] 29/9/2022 14:41

Any Kenya deal would have to include cash, otherwise no point as urgent need to pay down TLW debt. I'm on a 24 month fixed price energy rate but that expires next April. Nevertheless booking a flight sounds appealing.

[subsurface] 29/9/2022 14:05

I think only if Tullow get some cash out of it XX.
Don,t forget to send in your Gas reading then book your flight.winter here.

[xxnjr] 29/9/2022 13:58

All will be forgiven if Kenya comes in. Rather a big "IF" though although open to being pleasantly surprised!

[subsurface] 29/9/2022 13:52

Nothing about it on the Tullow website

[xxnjr] 29/9/2022 13:48

surprised TLW haven't issued an RNS as even they must have known the inevitable was inevitable and now its happened one would have thought TLW would have prepared something in advance.

[badger36] 29/9/2022 13:24

With the huge debt pile and rising rates will Tullow even survive?

[subsurface] 29/9/2022 13:06

Stick with the plan Jubilee and Ten lets see what mid 2023 brings from new wells to increase production.

[badger36] 29/9/2022 12:56

All those carpet baggers must be grateful that three CFOs gifted them a bonanza What a complete collection of idiots and well paid

[badger36] 29/9/2022 10:40

Embarrassing in the extreme. Shows how unsuitable and incompetent the entire team is to have kept on swimming against the tide Hope that special dividend is classified as non earned income and fully taxed rather than a capital gain

[xxnjr] 29/9/2022 10:26

Now time for Plan B. Knew CNE deal wouldn't happen. Was complete nonsense on TLW's behalf to pretend the transaction was still feasible as Hedge Funds held a blocking vote. Bit of a dent to Rahul's credibility. Strange really considering he's an investment banker. Acknowledging ofc that Rahul has done a brilliant job on TLW with stabilizing production and rig efficiencies.



"Proposed pre-Completion cash special dividend of $620m to Capricorn shareholders.
Expected to deliver total value to Capricorn shareholders of 271 pence per Capricorn share.
Withdrawal of intention to recommend the Tullow Combination....."

At least we now won't be spending zillions($) on pre-merger fees and advisors for a deal that was never going to happen. And the bonds are getting cheaper by the day.....

[bootycall] 27/9/2022 11:01

The Ghanaian Government and GNPC have a major headache with their Genser contractual supply agreements…on a mark to market basis, this is a major unfunded liability ?

I wonder….How can they get out of such a mess when the median cost of gas supply in Ghana is sourced at approx $6 per unit ?
Answer…sign a 13 year gas supply agreement perhaps for 200 mmcf per day supply from a local supply perhaps ?

Watch this space.

[xxnjr] 26/9/2022 23:55

The Scottish CFO left by "mutual agreement" earlier this year. He was replaced by an interim CFO the one who did very well on the recent call. He's only there until the new guy from Enquest assumes control.



Except that the Enquest guy seems to have been dropped as if the Cairn merger happens the Cairn CFO becomes the new TLW CFO. Presumably the Enquest guy gets a very large TLW pay off without doing a days work? As he appears to be out of a job given Enquest appointed a new CFO when he exited there.

[subsurface] 26/9/2022 22:25

Thanks franky
I took the dates from this website

[franky15] 26/9/2022 22:04

Africa oil week is actually Mon 3rd oct-7thMight be why Africa oil ceo said month end ..

[subsurface] 26/9/2022 21:41

Africa oil week Oct 31, 2022 to Nov 4, 2022

Perhaps some Kenya deal news?

If i remember correctly Free cash flow assumption was at $96 Barrel POO now circa $84 so under pressure.

Exxon Mobil CEO doubles as the Chairman.

[mcsean2164] 26/9/2022 21:36

Three CFOs? I should have bailed a long time ago

Just checked out spr inventory.

hxxps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&;s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

I wonder what'll happen after October, not that tullow seems to benefit from oil prices....

[mcsean2164] 26/9/2022 10:33

Thanks booty, good summary. All very disappointing tbh.

[bootycall] 26/9/2022 09:43

Tullow is almost at the gearing levels it targeted for 2025….without the new production wells coming on stream until mid 2023. Capricorn have effectively used us as a stalking horse..very amateurish poker playing, IMO, by Tullows advisors. Nothing wrong with the deal if it was deliverable because of the ROI on new projects and material costs savings…but we have been far too early to show our hand and far too slow to show our rising production level in market guidance. In some ways this has put Tullow into play instead… All too often, investors will point to a market valuation and say it is all “in the price”. Very dangerous position to be in when we have a few very dominant shareholders who might find an artificially low share price, an opportunistic time to make a move. Now that our stock has been decimated we are in a much poorer position to mount a defence. If the capital markets day shows greatly increased forecast production the management will blame the “offer period” for failing to give us earlier indications of our true forward guidance. To sum up,IMO the management are doing an OK job running the business but have been amateurish in refinancing the bonds and executing corporate strategy. Considering the operational leverage of our growing production we should be flying but the front end weighting of our capex means that people are focused, not on growing cash flow,..but instead on debt levels, sovereign risk and arbitrage and risk of dilution from enhancement of terms in the Capricorn deal. Hate to think what costs Rahul has wasted playing these games. Very soon we will get our Class 1 offer document and we can finally learn what Rahul has been reluctant to disclose to us for so long. Booty

Please do not rely on the facts or opinions contained in the above post when making an investment decision.

[badger36] 26/9/2022 09:07

How much is Capricorn getting again?Not snowballs chance in hell now Shareholders demand a return of the cash pile and given the high debt and interest rates Tullow is now bunched Idiots earnings millions for a disastrous decision

[fizzmiss] 23/9/2022 20:18

Heard every excuse in the book over the years why TLW under performs the market the oil price boom etc.

End of the day, it's all one man's fault we are being mugged, that being Raul’s performance since he rode into town.

RESIGN!
Utter inept clown with personal agenda. IMHO

This is the most crooked stock in the history of investing, apart from PMO.

Another UK oil stock and its investors being ripped off; PMO being another.

FSA............... ARF ARF ARF.