Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[fizzmiss] 08/9/2022 16:51

Any Monkey would do a better Job than Raul the lazy.

[mcsean2164] 08/9/2022 14:16

xxjnr,

We'd do better with you in charge. You've got my vote.

[xxnjr] 08/9/2022 08:21

FT Lex article above a bit flakey (as is the FT these days); e.g

"Oil exploration and production companies were once valued more highly for finding hydrocarbons than extracting them. No longer. Tullow’s proposed takeover of UK-listed peer Capricorn has inspired little enthusiasm."

Since TLW & CNE are both 95% pure production companies with minimal exploration the opening paragraph falls flat on its feet. But it does suggest TLW perhaps need to update their communications strategy as the message of TLW's new direction doesn't seem to be getting through?

[gibbs1] 08/9/2022 07:44

crunch time for tullow?

TULLOW OIL PLC ORD 10P (LSE:TLW) 48.40 0.48 1.02%

12 hours ago

[xxnjr] 07/9/2022 21:50

FT Lex:-

"Oil exploration and production companies were once valued more highly for finding hydrocarbons than extracting them. No longer. Tullow’s proposed takeover of UK-listed peer Capricorn has inspired little enthusiasm. Repsol shareholders have meanwhile greeted a $4.8bn E&P stake sale by the Spanish group with studied indifference.

This may seem odd when an energy crisis is raging in Europe and the value of hydrocarbon reserves have theoretically soared. Surely well-financed explorers should be scouring the world for fresh supplies?

Instead, investors are looking past the Ukraine war to the battle with climate change.

Some of Capricorn’s shareholders can think of better uses for net cash of $631mn than funding Tullow’s exploration and its debt repayments. They want a break-up rather than a buyout. At the very least a big capital return would be appreciated.

Both companies trade at very low valuations. On an enterprise value-to-forward ebitda basis, their shares are historically cheap at less than two times, on Bloomberg data. This is despite the heavy emphasis both put on the capital “P” in their E&P moniker, as Jefferies puts it.

Repsol, the big Spanish energy company trades at nearly the same multiple. On Wednesday, it announced that it would sell a quarter of its upstream oil and gas production unit to a US investment group called EIG for $4.8bn.

Repsol optimistically claimed that this put its upstream business on a valuation of $19bn, not far from its $24bn enterprise value. There is plenty of P there given Repsol produces an average of 570,000 barrels of oil equivalent daily, most of which is natural gas. The share price did not budge on the news.

The energy crisis has driven up the prices of oil and gas without greatly improving the outlook for E&Ps. Investors have plenty of doubts about the ESG ethical investment movement. But they have even greater reservations about fossil fuel hunters."

[mcsean2164] 07/9/2022 19:19

a few day above 52p would be nice.



Badger,

why do you think the capricorn deal is off?

[zingaro] 07/9/2022 16:44

badger36: especially when they reduced their production guidance by about 14%.
"Revised full year production guidance of 33,000 boepd to 36,000 boepd (previous guidance 37,000 boepd to 43,000 boepd)"

[badger36] 07/9/2022 16:22

With the prospects of the deal gone why is Capricorn still staying strong. Other than the India tax refund I can't see a reason to be optimistic on their growth prospects once the money is distributed

[xxnjr] 07/9/2022 13:00

It's been politically incorrect to suggest legislators view of oil and gas has been through too narrow lens and actually making matters worse. A first step to rebalance the discussion from Repsol above. But at the end of the day they are exiting 25% to raise cash for renewable investments:-

"Repsol will sell a 25 per cent stake in its exploration and production business to US investment group EIG for $4.8bn as Spain’s biggest oil company seeks to raise funds for renewables investments to pivot to a lower-carbon future.

The deal, the result of an unsolicited approach by the specialist energy and infrastructure investor, is one of the most creative efforts yet by an industry keen to transition to greener forms of energy while still providing the hydrocarbons the world needs today.

Repsol said the deal, which values its upstream business at about $19bn, would “crystallise value” in the division while freeing up capital to scale up renewables investments.

“Our ambition is to lead the energy transition,” said Josu Jon Imaz, chief executive. “This pioneering agreement allows us to maintain the strategic direction of the upstream unit,” he added, while boosting the “transformation of the company and its multi-energy profile to achieve zero net emissions by 2050.”

Repsol said it would retain operational control of the unit, adding that the transaction laid the foundation for a potential initial public offering of the business in the US in 2026 or later.

The oil industry, which is under to pressure to slash emissions by reducing production, is wrestling with how to fund investments in clean energy while retaining sufficient profits from legacy assets to continue to pay shareholders.

Some investors and oil industry veterans have called on the biggest companies to spin off their oil and gas divisions, which face a higher cost of capital than pure renewables businesses. So far, most competitors, including Shell and BP, have argued that they will be better able to succeed as integrated companies.

Italian oil group Eni was preparing to list a minority stake in its retail and renewable power business in June before delaying the offering due to market conditions.

The Repsol deal, however, is the first attempt by a big oil and gas company to cash in on the value of its legacy business. The unit produces an average of 570,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent from fields in the Americas, Europe, Asia and Africa. About 70 per cent of that production is natural gas, prices for which have soared this year as Russia has choked supply to Europe.

Biraj Borkhataria, head of oil and gas equity research at RBC Capital Markets, described the deal as positive for both Repsol and the wider industry. “We see this deal as good for the sector in unlocking value for the majors,” he said.

The transaction would help fund Repsol’s long-term plans to build out its low-carbon business and should be a “significant positive catalyst” for Repsol shares, he added.

Repsol shares rose after announcement but were down 1.6 per cent in morning trading as European oil and gas stocks fell 1.7 per cent."

[fizzmiss] 06/9/2022 13:11

Post:

badger366 Sep '22 - 09:20 - 57957 of 57961
0 1 0
I’ve never seen merger proposals made public before they are agreed. The amateurish behaviour is symptomatic of the overpaid asses we have in all positions bother in listed entities and politics.
What did they expect?
You announce to the world months in advance that specific corporate activity is proposed which will influence the stock price. It’s the opposite of insider trading


Can you expect anything else from Raul? Everything he has done to date has been Toxic for the share price.

Anyone who thinks the share price is not being manipulated within a fine trading are living la la land.

[xxnjr] 06/9/2022 12:28

Yeah you are correct.

It was "45 BCF" to go end of April 2021.
Rest of 2021 free gas supply was about 17.5 BCF.
2022 to June was another 19 BCF.
2022 rest of year say another 19 BCF.

All gross (100%)
But GNPC are both seller and buyer of the "free" gas for their equity position. Does theirs count in the calculation?

Whatever..... agree should be some news on gas!

[gibbs1] 06/9/2022 12:27

rté


Capricorn explores other deals amid Tullow deal backlash
Updated / Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 11:53


Capricorn Energy, whose planned merger with rival Tullow Oil has faced investor backlash, said today it was exploring alternative deals after unnamed parties expressed interest.

Oil and gas producer Capricorn's proposed $827m deal with Tullow has faced stiff opposition from investors, who have called for a strategic review of the business.

The Edinburgh-based firm, whose market capitalisation has risen to $856m, said it was in talks with parties that have expressed interest, but declined to comment further as the talks were confidential.

In an analyst call, Capricorn said it would take its share value into consideration as it considers its deal with Tullow and any alternative transactions.

The group said in a statement it continues to believe its proposed merger with Tullow can deliver significant long-term value for shareholders through the creation of an Africa-focused energy firm.

Oil and gas producers have seen a boost in earnings after a two-year slump thanks to a rapid recovery in demand after the end of Covid-19 lockdowns and a surge in prices driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Capricorn's operating losses narrowed to roughly $37m for the six months ended June 30 from $47m the same time the previous year.

The London-listed group was previously called Cairn Energy.

Its stock rose despite Capricorn cutting its annual production expectations to 33,000 to 36,000 barrels per day for the year due to delays in commissioning rigs and importing staff in Egypt.

The group, which holds interests across four main concession areas in Egypt, said it expects to overcome the delays by the end of the year and will focus on ramping up production in Egypt in 2023.

[subsurface] 06/9/2022 11:19

Thanks XX

I think we must be due some news on the Ghana Gas contract as the free gas must be coming to an end.
Kenya and the merger I think are an add on so long as we remain on Target/Plan in Ghana.

[xxnjr] 06/9/2022 09:34

To answer your Q SS

Nothing much to report from Ghana.

Rig still on that Enyenra well. Ought to be at TD by now so should know if it's any good by results day.

Jubilee below 90K, maybe 87K now.

TEN may possibly surprise in a nice way. Seems to have stabilised or may even have increased. The tanker interval between last 2 offloads suggests production increased in late July/August but struggling to see quite how as not much happened on the ground so to speak other than completing a water injector left over from McDade era.

Looking to TLW results. Would imagine 2022 production guidance probably retained, or narrowed. Of more interest what does next year look like in terms of Jubilee drilling. Is it all Jub SE or will they throw in a couple of infill wells on Jubilee Existing to offset natural decline there before JSE comes on stream? Kenya?... at least the political stuff is sorted. That is positive.

CNE results: Now have $631m cash. Some drilling and logistics delays, together with 1 or 2 poor well results in Egypt has resulted in lower production growth than anticipated. The receivable from EGPC appears to be getting larger. (Egypt is bankrupt post Russia-Ukraine so this receivable issue will probably be a permanent feature in the medium term in my opinion.)

[badger36] 06/9/2022 09:11

When you explaining you've already lost

[grupo] 06/9/2022 08:26

Jamie Ashcroft

08:48 Tue 06 Sep 2022



Southern Energy Corp is focused on developing conventional energy in the southeast Gulf states of the USA

Capricorn Energy says Tullow merger is set to deliver significant long-term value

Other possible transactions are also being reviewed, Capricorn noted.
Capricorn Energy PLC - Capricorn Energy says Tullow merger is set to deliver significant long-term value

Capricorn Energy PLC (LSE:CNE, OTC:CRNZF) told investors it still believes its proposed merger with Tullow Oil PLC (LSE:TLW) can deliver significant long-term value for shareholders.

Chief executive Simon Thomson, in Capricorn’s interim results statement, said that the arrangement will create a leading, Africa-focused energy company.

He added: “The board is also mindful of the impact of external factors and market conditions and is, as always, assessing all options to maximise value for shareholders.

“The company is exploring a number of expressions of interest relating to alternative transactions, and is engaging with those parties expressing interest to evaluate potential outcomes."

Capricorn and Tullow in early June announced a combination which would see their respective shareholders own 47% an 53% of the enlarged firm – which will have a portfolio of production, development and exploration assets across Africa.

Within the Capricorn business the first half saw production averaging 35,500 barrels oil equivalent per day, as the company prioritise liquids production amidst a particularly strong prevailing oil price environment.

Overall, guidance for Capricorn’s production over the full year was trimmed to 33,000 to 36,000 barrels, from 37,000 to 43,000 barrels. The company noted delays to the mobilisation of rigs to project which impacted operations.

Capricorn’s schedule sees exploration drilling getting underway in Mexico during the fourth quarter, whilst drill programmes continue in Egypt.

It expects the necessary merger documentation to be issued to shareholders in the fourth quarter also, ahead of a general meeting.

In London, Capricorn shares were on the front foot rising just over 3% to 241.6p.

Proactive

[badger36] 06/9/2022 08:24

BTW Capricorn at three year high and this pos stock can't even hold 50p Water, sulphur and a rumoured gas discovery after billions down the hole

[badger36] 06/9/2022 08:20

I've never seen merger proposals made public before they are agreed. The amateurish behaviour is symptomatic of the overpaid asses we have in all positions bother in listed entities and politics. What did they expect?You announce to the world months in advance that specific corporate activity is proposed which will influence the stock price. It's the opposite of insider trading

[grupo] 06/9/2022 08:12

INVESTORSCHRONICLE



Tullow target Capricorn Energy looking at alternative bidders


Cash-rich takeover target said despite the directors backing the merger with Tullow Oil, the board is exploring alternative transactions

September 6, 2022

By Alex Hamer

Shareholder anger over Tullow Oil merger has been significant

Capricorn boss Simon Thompson said original deal still stood but other options being explored

Capricorn Energy (CNE) is talking to other suitors despite still backing the merger arranagement with Tullow Oil (TLW) that would see its hefty cash holdings used to cover the larger company's sizeable debt pile.

[xxnjr] 06/9/2022 07:54

Rather than paying down debt seems like TLW are going to waste zillions with advisors, legal and banks, to create documentation for a merger that isn't going to happen on the published terms given 75% of CNE holders required to vote through the deal and it just so happens that hedge funds post deal announcement hastily bought up about 25% of CNE stock from disaffected private investors who now only hold about 5% of CNE.