Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 31/1/2022 10:04

mcs, 2022 at

$65, FCF = 0
$75, FCF = $100m
$85, FCF = $200m

[thommie] 31/1/2022 10:01

Please sell you shares if you are not even able to read the last rns. The hedging is in it in every detail thats possible.But for you: In 2022 they hedged 42,5k bopd of the 55-61k bopd conservative guidance (not including the 5k additional pre emption wi of TEN and jubilee - it doesnt really matter if this reduces the price to pay for t his stake or counts into guidance tbh...) at a ceiling price of 78$\bbl and a floor protection of 55$\bbl.That means if oil price falls under 55 they still get 55 for 42,5k bopd, but if oil price is above 78$\bbl they only get 78$ for 42,5k bopd.So atm at 90$\bbl that means ofc : Tlw gets 78$\bbl for 42,5k bopd and 90$\bbl plus ca 2$\bbl premium to dated brent for the rest of production.While 42,5k bopd dont profit from rising oil price above 78$ the rest of their production ofc does.The hedging for 2022 is much better than it was in 2021. The ceiling price for 40k bopd in 2021 was hedged at only 67$\bbl. Still they outperformed their own free cash flow guidance by 150m$ in 2021! And that was without receiving the 75m$ FID payment from Total which is expected to be received in 2022.Production will jump very hard from 2023 on when they bring the 3 drilled TEN wells (planned in 2022 as producers) online and will probably even start to drill jubilee south east and north east with 2 drill ships in early 2023 after the needed subsea infrastructure has been installed in 2022 (which is the reason for the high ghana capex in 2022). This new jubilee development is in new unused reservoirs of the field and will come in at very high production rates. I expect jubilee to produce around 120k bopd from mid 2023 on and around 50k bopd in TEN from early 2023 on. (after pre emption tlw looks at 54% wi in TEN and 38,9% in jubilee - you can do the math yourself ist guess...)

[badger36] 31/1/2022 09:38

I simply give up now. What price have they forward sold ?Something is terribly wrong with the books

[mcsean2164] 31/1/2022 09:13

I guess people weren't excited by the trading statement. I'm not sure where the share price goes if poo drops .... down a lot I guess.

[newswseller] 31/1/2022 07:58

Well, the BOPD has reduced quite substantially for one

[orchestralis] 31/1/2022 02:58

Just before Covid oil price was 56 dollars and Tullow share was over £2. Now oil price is 90 dollars and Tullow share price is 50p. What has fundamentally changed at Tullow?.

[fizzmiss] 30/1/2022 08:33

As said, Russia will not invade Ukraine:

hxxps://112.international/politics/russia-partially-withdraws-troops-from-ukrainian-border-69116.html

[subsurface] 29/1/2022 14:31

Repsol News

Peru oil spill after Tonga eruption bigger than previously thought

Peru has demanded compensation and prosecutors have opened an investigation into Repsol's role in the incident.

A judge granted a request on Friday to bar four executives from the firm leaving the country for 18 months amid the ongoing probe.

In a statement to the AFP news agency, Repsol said it would "fully cooperate with any criminal investigation" and said it was already aiding in the preliminary stages.

"Our main concern is cleaning up the environment. Repsol is putting all its efforts into cleaning up as quickly as possible," the company added.

[fizzmiss] 28/1/2022 16:57

Like I have always said; this is being manipulated to lower lows compared to higher average oil.

Corrupt and blatant share price manipulation as you like.

God help the share price if oil drops back $5 because it sure ain't moved up much since oil was $75

If the share price breaks south of the 54p support, then the corrupt MM will manipulate this back to mid 40s for no reason.

crazi.... any views?

[fizzmiss] 28/1/2022 16:10

Russia will not go to war, too much to lose on both sides

[crazi] 28/1/2022 14:05

Brent $90...


Bloomberg
@business
Natural gas futures jumped as much as 14% on Friday in New York as a winter storm bears down on the U.S. Northeast

[crazi] 28/1/2022 13:49

Bloomberg
@business
Russian tensions, low stockpiles and refinery outages from Rotterdam to Taiwan are creating a perfect storm for diesel prices around the world

1:47 PM · Jan 28, 2022·TweetDeck

[fizzmiss] 28/1/2022 13:36

Yawnnnnnnnn

[subsurface] 28/1/2022 13:29

Just to revisit the Rahul Tullow master Plan from November 2020


The Average Crude oil price for 2021 was $70.68

Tullow to generate $7B in next 10 years
Assuming an oil price of $45 per barrel in 2021 and $55 per barrel flat nominal from 2022 onwards, and with over 90 per cent of future capital expenditure focused on the company’s West African producing assets, Tullow forecasts it will generate c. $7 billion of operating cash flow over the next 10 years.



so we have made a good start with POO.

[xxnjr] 28/1/2022 12:19

thommie - Agree. The work over J-12W goes into the W11 water injection manifold which has a vacant slot for a 4th w/inj. So I'm guessing that is what is being drilled now.

[thommie] 28/1/2022 12:07

Thx xxnjr. That makes sense! As they are normally drilled in pair to a producer you would normally expect them to be at different places, but maybe different reservoirs are lying over each other and need a own water injector.Kulv. It's the same pattern that occured throughout the last days. Dump the share price in the morning, absorb cheap shares from lose hands and raise the price again into close. I really dont care about these day or even weakly movements much, although I see them. You need to hold this share at least till 2023. Then the real story will get visible.Im still wondering people didnt recognise that tullow have beaten their own free cash flow guidance by 150m in 2021 although not having received the 75m FID payment from Uganda by Total.

[kulvinder] 28/1/2022 11:48

Is everyone selling, getting hit a bit today with no real news???

[xxnjr] 28/1/2022 10:45

thommie - it could be that the 5th (the workover) and the 6th (new w/inj) are being drilled from the same rig location.

[xxnjr] 28/1/2022 03:36

Sounds promising

[xxnjr] 28/1/2022 02:48

Appreciate that thommie, I thought exactly the same thing when I read the RNS, but all I can say is, the rig, according to marine traffic 2 days ago, was where it has been (to the nearest 100 mtrs) since it started drilling the 5th well! Will let you know if it moves and where. I'm pretty certain it hasn't moved yet. The production guidance will probably get upgraded later, just like $100m FCF suddenly became $250M!

Have also PM'd you.

[thommie] 27/1/2022 23:20

"· The drilling programme delivered two producers (J56-P online in July, J57-P online in December), one water injector (J55-WI online in September) and a work over (J12-WI online early in January 2022).· Strong drilling performance over the period achieved both cost and efficiency improvements compared to previous drilling campaigns "From the rns yesterday. So it looks like they already started the water injector drill on jubilee. It should take around 45-60 days if Im not mistaken!The workover was on another water injector as well. It really looks to me that they mainly see a need to improve past field development executions and try to push up the ultimate recovery via infill drilling of the already drilled producers." Average daily production grew from c.70 kbopd at the beginning of 2021 to exceed 90 kbopd by the end of the year, achieved through a combination of new wells brought on stream and improved operational performance"The workover will have further helped to stabilise or even improve this >90k bopd performance at jubilee. I am hoping for improved gas offtake now that the onshore gnpc facilities are online again and increased water injection capability to boost production even further. I expect them to hold production around 90k till the jubilee producer is drilled after the currently drilled water injector, increasing the daily production to 100k already. Even a 2 week shut down in april wont lead to only 80-84k bopd guidance like you calculated before. The expected yearly natural decline of 20% will be offset by the 2 water injectors alone, leaving upside for the producer. I still hope tullow will soon announce a 2nd drillship for q3 2022. This would enable to start drilling another 2-3 jubilee wells in 2022 that could come online in 2023 when the subsea work fördert JSE is expected to be done. I will have to revisit one of the last webcasts where Rahul speaks about the further development of jubilee. I remember that the development of jubilee north east didnt need more subsea infrastructure. Maybe they can fasttrack these wells with a 2nd rig and even put them online directly after drilling. Tbh I have no clue where the planned producer in 2022 or the last 2 ones in 2021 were located! Was that already the jubilee north east drilling?I really look forward to the TEN drilling. Booty will be excited as well I would guess. And I still have some hope that they learned sth out of the past hick ups on the TEN drilling as they even feel comfortable to drill one of the wells in enyenra again! Wtf? As Rahul was always super cautious about enyenra and more than once spoke about leaving enyenra alone because of the complexity I feel that they could have come to a possible solution for the past problems as they in fact now plan to drill it again!! Why wouldnt they do it otherwise? They could drill a safe well on jubilee instead.... If this 3 well campaign works perfect we could be looking at additional production of 25-30k bopd on the TEN field, 54% of it to tullow. Another 15k bopd net to tullow unhedged would be very welcome. On the other hand as I said before they dont seem to put any öffnen this upside into the irgendwann TEN guidance, though ofc it would be contributing to production in q4 at earliest. So 2023 could be a very big increase in production. I really feel very comfortable holding this share. I never felt more comfortable since 2014 when I first bought shares.