Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 28/1/2022 02:48

Appreciate that thommie, I thought exactly the same thing when I read the RNS, but all I can say is, the rig, according to marine traffic 2 days ago, was where it has been (to the nearest 100 mtrs) since it started drilling the 5th well! Will let you know if it moves and where. I'm pretty certain it hasn't moved yet. The production guidance will probably get upgraded later, just like $100m FCF suddenly became $250M!

Have also PM'd you.

[thommie] 27/1/2022 23:20

"· The drilling programme delivered two producers (J56-P online in July, J57-P online in December), one water injector (J55-WI online in September) and a work over (J12-WI online early in January 2022).· Strong drilling performance over the period achieved both cost and efficiency improvements compared to previous drilling campaigns "From the rns yesterday. So it looks like they already started the water injector drill on jubilee. It should take around 45-60 days if Im not mistaken!The workover was on another water injector as well. It really looks to me that they mainly see a need to improve past field development executions and try to push up the ultimate recovery via infill drilling of the already drilled producers." Average daily production grew from c.70 kbopd at the beginning of 2021 to exceed 90 kbopd by the end of the year, achieved through a combination of new wells brought on stream and improved operational performance"The workover will have further helped to stabilise or even improve this >90k bopd performance at jubilee. I am hoping for improved gas offtake now that the onshore gnpc facilities are online again and increased water injection capability to boost production even further. I expect them to hold production around 90k till the jubilee producer is drilled after the currently drilled water injector, increasing the daily production to 100k already. Even a 2 week shut down in april wont lead to only 80-84k bopd guidance like you calculated before. The expected yearly natural decline of 20% will be offset by the 2 water injectors alone, leaving upside for the producer. I still hope tullow will soon announce a 2nd drillship for q3 2022. This would enable to start drilling another 2-3 jubilee wells in 2022 that could come online in 2023 when the subsea work fördert JSE is expected to be done. I will have to revisit one of the last webcasts where Rahul speaks about the further development of jubilee. I remember that the development of jubilee north east didnt need more subsea infrastructure. Maybe they can fasttrack these wells with a 2nd rig and even put them online directly after drilling. Tbh I have no clue where the planned producer in 2022 or the last 2 ones in 2021 were located! Was that already the jubilee north east drilling?I really look forward to the TEN drilling. Booty will be excited as well I would guess. And I still have some hope that they learned sth out of the past hick ups on the TEN drilling as they even feel comfortable to drill one of the wells in enyenra again! Wtf? As Rahul was always super cautious about enyenra and more than once spoke about leaving enyenra alone because of the complexity I feel that they could have come to a possible solution for the past problems as they in fact now plan to drill it again!! Why wouldnt they do it otherwise? They could drill a safe well on jubilee instead.... If this 3 well campaign works perfect we could be looking at additional production of 25-30k bopd on the TEN field, 54% of it to tullow. Another 15k bopd net to tullow unhedged would be very welcome. On the other hand as I said before they dont seem to put any öffnen this upside into the irgendwann TEN guidance, though ofc it would be contributing to production in q4 at earliest. So 2023 could be a very big increase in production. I really feel very comfortable holding this share. I never felt more comfortable since 2014 when I first bought shares.

[xxnjr] 27/1/2022 19:51

Thommie if you had asked me that 2 days ago I would have said 100% it's still on the 5th well (w/inj workover) as for some reason that day it did an extremely rare thing - sent out an AIS location signal. There is an unidentified vessel at the exact same location today. I would say that is the rig as none of the other 7 unidentified vessels are where you would expect the next new water injector to be drilled (about +7 kms sth of the fpso).

Had a reply from IR regarding subsea activity I had mentioned on here before; yep it's all to do with installing the 2nd offloading line fpso to CALM Buoy.

[thommie] 27/1/2022 18:07

Xxnjr what is the drill rig currently doing?

[xxnjr] 27/1/2022 11:17

Agree.

"Jubilee production is expected to average between 80 to 84 kbopd". If you factor in 3% downtime, plus 2 wks shutdown (3.8%)..... Let's call it 7.5% total downtime, then

80 to 84 on Jubilee becomes 86.5 to 91 kbopd daily. 91K is not far from where we are today. 3 wells are being drilled on Jubilee (not 4); 2 water injectors and one producer. The injectors are there to increase oil recovery and help mitigate against what would otherwise be 20% decline rate and don't necessarily increase production rates per se but will help keep things stable. The producer will come on mid-year. Should get a lot more colour with actual results on 9th Mar. I mean we need to understand the impact the fpso upgrade will have on oil production (as well as gas, as some of upgrade is to do with reduced flaring Net Zero stuff) and the shape/timing of JSE development wells which come on sometime in 2023. And timing of 2nd rig hopefully.

[maxplus2] 27/1/2022 10:41

All guess

[thommie] 27/1/2022 10:26

An interesting thought of sandyr from the lse board which would explain the very conservative nature of production guidance..... Rahul is a clever guy- the statement requires a few readsHow with 4 wells this year, plus all the extra investment and tech does output not really move in the statementAnswer is due to the deal with debt keepers, the requirements to hedge the output"75% of FORECAST OIL"Forecast. So that's circa 45k bopd. But read the statement, 4 wells jubilee extra, new additional output from operators adding 10. He has even commented on jubilee being down but measures to improve it are already ongoingIt's a promise of under delivery re hedge forecast vs the nuggets he has put in , which could be another 40k on top unhedgedThis statement was one to keep debt guys happy and provide the Easter eggs for us

[xxnjr] 27/1/2022 09:25

A couple of points from the call. On refinancing R said they would be looking to do that in 2023. I guess he meant the 2026 10.25% bonds. His rationale for booting out Modec was (1) Cost saving (2) Efficiency "no more double cleaning" and (3) build up FPSO self-operating capability which would be a useful skill to have when bidding for divested super major assets.

Don't think Rahul is interested in frontier exploration. Looks like he prefers acquiring mid-life assets from exiting super majors.

[fizzmiss] 26/1/2022 22:00

Had a good long look at this and think Raul truly has set TLW up as nothing more than a very slow way to pay back debt whilst investors hardly get nothing.

Going to be a long haul under Raul with hardly anything to show for investors.

Oil edged at shocking low levels and just enough to pay back debt and see him out to retirement with his swag bags full.

Raul has turned this into a very boring trading stock, but hey, if we can make money on the mega falls and rises then so be it; BUT watch out for the mega market crash looming, because it's coming very soon IMHO!

[thommie] 26/1/2022 21:29

Thanks for looking it up, I didnt have any time to spend! I remember the TEN gas price now as well. When I found that a year or so ago in that document I was like WTF is that!? :)

[maywillow] 26/1/2022 17:56

NEAR AND DEAR

[xxnjr] 26/1/2022 13:07

ok, have found it

for Jubilee, associated gas sold at $2.35/MMBtu , for TEN fields associated gas is sold at $0.5/MMBtu [!!!!] and non-associated gas at $3.0/MMBtu.

TLW have also offered GNGC larger volumes of gas (over the 130 mmscfd) at "competitive prices".

[subsurface] 26/1/2022 12:50

This may be of interest Thommie

Ghana report updated 2021

The country aims to more than double its oil production by 2025. Almost 0.5 GW of gas-fired capacity is currently under construction.




ENI gets a much higher price for Gas as they put in the Gas process plant world bank was also involved

[thommie] 26/1/2022 12:29

Atm the agreement (if I remember right) of the licence says after they delivered 200bcf of free gas they will get around 2-2,5$\cf for the associated gas. (you can find it in a very long PDF you can download in the tullow website) It was a little bit more for non associated gas. If I got Rahul right in the last webcasts when he was asked about it they are in talks with the government for a new agreement relating the gas agreement. Eni gets around 8-9$\cf for the non associated gas from sankofa as a comparison! Less for associated gas. I guess it's mainly to find an agreement for non associated gas in TEN that could be developed if an agreement is met. And ofc a take or pay agreement would be good in the case you spend funds to drill gas wells and not only have to dispose the associated gas thats a side product of your oil production.So they state 100 mmscfpd for 2021 (highly impacted by gnpc shutdown for nearly 2 months), they expected 130mmscfpd before. If we go with 130 mmscfpd it would be 130 000 cf x 2$\cf = 260 000$\d x 365d = 94 900 000 $\year gross for both licenses. Thats without any additional costs. So will go straight to baseline. If you use 2,5$\cf it would be 118,6m $\year. Ofc you have to multiply it with the working interest of tullow. So it depends if the gas comes from jubilee or TEN how much of it tullow will be getting. If they increase gas offtake throughout the next years (I remember subsurface posting an article on here that spoke of a planned update on facilities of gnpc and pipelines to take more gas from jubilee and TEN) and maybe at a better pricing this figures will ofc increase AND will lead to better GOR of the wells, which means higher production if the gas handling capacity on the fpsos can keep pace and the water injection is getting increased as well to replace pressure support in the reservoir by gas injection.

[xxnjr] 26/1/2022 12:29

There was 45bcf of free gas remaining to be supplied end Apr 2021. 17 bcf was supplied to GNGC May to Dec 2021. Leaving 28bcf of free to go. Which is about 10 months at current rates. The associated sales gas price, when it happens is quite cheap. Anyone recall the price?

[trevor1234] 26/1/2022 12:08

Am I imagining it or doesn't the free gas to Ghana come to an end sometime this year
If I am right will Ghana start paying for the Gas and will this be significant ?

[bootycall] 26/1/2022 12:01

WARNING WARNING SPOILER ALERT

For those disappointed at the 2-3kbpd 2022 production number shortfall …..entirely attributable to a strategic second Ten well coming on stream in 2023 rather than a Jubilee producer in 2022.

Now…Imagine the numbers with a second rig……230;……

All it needs is the partners to agree to the above… as we have over a 50% interest in Ten , post pre emption entitlement closing, I think this is highly likely .
Every extra well in Ten is likely to add 4-5kbpd net to Tullow.
It will look like a different Company post agreement on the extra rig. Booty


DYOR

[fizzmiss] 26/1/2022 10:18

Crazi, I have to take my bonnet off to you, you called this perfect twice on the trot.


Gonna take more notice of your calls, keep posting.

[waldron] 26/1/2022 10:14

Iain Gilbert
Sharecast News

Tullow Oil FY group working interest oil production averages 59,200 barrels per day


Exploration firm Tullow Oil said on Wednesday that group working interest oil production averaged 59,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with guidance, with notable production growth from its Jubilee field in Ghana and the Simba field in Gabon offsetting lower than expected production from its TEN and Espoir assets.


Tullow Oil stated full-year oil production at Jubilee hit 74,900 bopd, ahead of guidance set at the start of the year, while the TEN field recorded an average of 32,800 bopd, below guidance at the start of the trading year.

In Ghana, the London-listed firm said ongoing improvements in operating performance had resulted in uptime of over 97% on both operated FPSOs and an increase in water injection rates and gas processing capacity as drilling was restarted in April, with four new wells and a workover successfully completed, ahead of plan.

Full-year revenues were expected to be around $1.3bn, with a realised oil price of $63 per barrel, including hedge costs of approximately $150.0m, while underlying operating cash flow was projected to be about $700.0m and free cash flow was forecast to be in the region of $250.0m, ahead of guidance, driven by continued focus on costs, supportive oil prices in the latter parts of 2021 and favourable working capital movements.

Looking ahead to 2022, group working interest oil production guidance was set at 55,000-61,0000 boepd, based on Tullow's existing equity interests in TEN and Jubilee.

Chief executive Rahul Dhir said: "2021 was a year of positive change and transformation for Tullow, and we ended the year on a firm financial and operational footing.

"In 2022, we will build on these firm foundations and focus on investing in our producing assets in West Africa. Our plans in Ghana, where we are in the process of increasing our stakes in both the Jubilee and TEN fields, will position us to deliver the free cash flow to reduce gearing to less than 1.5x by 2025. Elsewhere, our Gabon near-field non-operated exploration opportunities, our revised Kenya development project and the Beebei-Potaro commitment well in Guyana also have the potential to be significant value drivers for Tullow."

As of 0910 GMT, Tullow shares were down 5.42% at 53.76p.

[crazi] 26/1/2022 09:28

9:27 AM · Jan 26, 2022·TweetDeck

Trading Floor Audio
@TradeFloorAudio
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov : Moscow Is Not Ready To Find Room For EU Or OSCE In Talks Around Ukraine

Russia To Respond To West 'Aggressive' Ukraine Steps

If We Do Not Receive A Constructive Answer From The West On Our Security Demands, Moscow Will Take Appropriate Measures

[crazi] 26/1/2022 09:18

It's not just Russia as the company is improving each quarter. Oil price is going to be high irrespective of Russia but if there is any contact with Russia which you must take in to consideration currently as the market nerves increase then the oil price is going to go crazy high overnight...

Oil companies would jump 20% before the markets even opened...

[fizzmiss] 26/1/2022 09:05

Fully agree

[thommie] 26/1/2022 09:02

Damn, it's just a phone call, which I cant listen to being outside the uk or the phone costs would kill me.... :( I hope to get a number from IR to listen to the replay.

[crazi] 26/1/2022 08:53

I've taken the plunge. Just bought at 54... 5% down is overdone. Results are positive.

Brent climbing nicely... will be $90 soon enough then the road to $100. Seemingly if even some small contact kicks off with the Russians they expect oil to jump to $150! That would be crazy...