Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 26/1/2022 08:37

Agreed maxplus2.

We are due $75m from Total Uganda. Debt will be below $2bn soon, but still too high.

[Our Capricorn shares seem to be outperforming tlw today!]

[waldron] 26/1/2022 08:35

2022 Outlook

-- Group working interest oil production guidance is 55 to 61 kboepd. This forecast is based on Tullow's existing equity interests in TEN (47.125%) and Jubilee (35.48%) and will be adjusted following completion of the pre-emption of the sale of Occidental Petroleum's interest in Ghana to Kosmos Energy. The estimated full year impact of the completed pre-emption would be an addition of c.5 kboepd (net) to the Group's 2022 production forecast, adjusted for completion timing.

-- Tullow is prioritising investment in high return opportunities in its producing assets, whilst ensuring the business remains self-funded at c.$65/bbl(2) this year. Capital expenditure is forecast to be c.$350 million, split c.$270 million in Ghana, c.$30 million on the non-operated portfolio, c.$5 million in Kenya and c.$45 million on exploration and appraisal. Decommissioning expenditure is expected to be c.$100 million.

-- Increased year-on-year spend in Ghana is primarily due to investment in infrastructure for the Jubilee North East and South East areas that will lead to meaningful growth in production as these undeveloped parts of Jubilee are brought on stream from 2023 onwards.

-- At $75/bbl, underlying operating cash flow(1) is expected to be c.$750 million with free cash flow(2) of c.$100 million.

-- Debt reduction remains a key priority and the Group remains on track to materially reduce net debt and achieve gearing of less than 1.5x net debt to EBITDAX by 2025.

-- A material hedge portfolio protects c.75% of forecast sales volumes to May 2023 and 50% from May 2023 to May 2024.

(1) Cash flow from operating activities including lease payments, before capital investment, decommissioning expenditure and debt service

(2) Free cash flow before debt amortisation and including an expected $75 million payment from Total following Ugandan parliamentary approval of the Uganda Final Investment Decision (FID)

[waldron] 26/1/2022 08:34

2022 Outlook

-- Group working interest oil production guidance is 55 to 61 kboepd. This forecast is based on Tullow's existing equity interests in TEN (47.125%) and Jubilee (35.48%) and will be adjusted following completion of the pre-emption of the sale of Occidental Petroleum's interest in Ghana to Kosmos Energy. The estimated full year impact of the completed pre-emption would be an addition of c.5 kboepd (net) to the Group's 2022 production forecast, adjusted for completion timing.

-- Tullow is prioritising investment in high return opportunities in its producing assets, whilst ensuring the business remains self-funded at c.$65/bbl(2) this year. Capital expenditure is forecast to be c.$350 million, split c.$270 million in Ghana, c.$30 million on the non-operated portfolio, c.$5 million in Kenya and c.$45 million on exploration and appraisal. Decommissioning expenditure is expected to be c.$100 million.

-- Increased year-on-year spend in Ghana is primarily due to investment in infrastructure for the Jubilee North East and South East areas that will lead to meaningful growth in production as these undeveloped parts of Jubilee are brought on stream from 2023 onwards.

-- At $75/bbl, underlying operating cash flow(1) is expected to be c.$750 million with free cash flow(2) of c.$100 million.

-- Debt reduction remains a key priority and the Group remains on track to materially reduce net debt and achieve gearing of less than 1.5x net debt to EBITDAX by 2025.

-- A material hedge portfolio protects c.75% of forecast sales volumes to May 2023 and 50% from May 2023 to May 2024.

(1) Cash flow from operating activities including lease payments, before capital investment, decommissioning expenditure and debt service

(2) Free cash flow before debt amortisation and including an expected $75 million payment from Total following Ugandan parliamentary approval of the Uganda Final Investment Decision (FID)

[crazi] 26/1/2022 08:29

Managing costs very well. Oil price going to fly with Russia...

I see this over 60pps soon enough... imho

[maxplus2] 26/1/2022 08:25

Still over burden by debt

[xxnjr] 26/1/2022 08:14

TLW has exited Namibia!.....

Was anticipating some production growth in 2022 but this year guidance seems to be flat, or conservative. A few injectors being drilled, rather than producers. I guess that is aimed at maintaining production and not having it fall off a cliff. Jubilee shut down is 2 wks, not 4.

Good news is operating cash was flow was $700m, FCF was $250m (not $100m)

as a result Net Debt reduced from $2,400m to $2,100m noting those are rounded numbers but nevertheless about 2.5X what was expected in terms of debt reduction.

There is a call at 9am.

[subsurface] 26/1/2022 07:31

In January 2022, Tullow also exited the PEL 90 licence in Namibia,

Year-end net debt reduced to c.$2.1 billion.

[aalli] 25/1/2022 18:44

Let's see what tomorrows update brings.... GLA

[ariane] 25/1/2022 17:53

Price (GBX)
56.84 6.01% (3.22)

Open / Last close
55.72 / 56.84

High / Low
57.24 / 54.60

Bid / Offer
56.58 / 56.88

[ariane] 25/1/2022 17:49

Price (GBX)
56.84 6.01% (3.22)

Open / Last close
55.72 / 56.84

High / Low
57.24 / 54.60

Bid / Offer
56.58 / 56.88

Special Condition: -
Trading Status: End of Post Close
FTSE All-Share
As at 25.01.22 17:30:05 - All data delayed at least 15 minutes


fizzmiss
25 Jan '22 - 17:40 - 56627 of 56627
0 0 0
Early rise then mega sell-off towards the close, historically.
Worse, if Raúl yet again kicks the can down the road


Puzzled by your post fizz

CANNOT SEE A SELL OFF

[fizzmiss] 25/1/2022 17:40

Early rise then mega sell-off towards the close, historically.
Worse, if Raúl yet again kicks the can down the road.

[xxnjr] 25/1/2022 16:40

Decent UT 56.84p 1,233,367 shares.
over to you Rahul

[misca2] 25/1/2022 11:16

Upcoming events

January Trading Statement

26 Jan 2022

[waldron] 25/1/2022 08:55

[United Kingdom] TULLOW OIL PLC (TLW)


Real-time Estimate Quote. Real-time Estimate Cboe Europe - 01/25 03:54:18 am

56.79 GBX +5.91%

[fizzmiss] 25/1/2022 08:31

Vladimir Putin’s placement of more than 100,000 troops and heavy armaments on Ukraine’s southern, eastern and northeastern borders is now being supplemented with Russian forces in ally Belarus, on Ukraine’s northwestern flank and close to its capital, Kyiv. After weeks of unsuccessful diplomacy, the Kremlin’s increasingly ominous behavior has now stirred the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to begin defensive military preparations. Some NATO allies are sending defensive weapons to Ukraine (which is not a NATO member) while NATO is planning to move more troops and equipment to Eastern European member states. Putin is continuing to up the ante with Russian naval exercises slated worldwide, including in the Baltic, Mediterranean and even off the coast of Ireland. His adjutants are making noises about a strategic partnership with Cuba, including putting troops and even missiles there, in Venezuela or Nicaragua. Putin has demanded simultaneously with his aggressive military moves that NATO roll back forces from member states—nations formerly contained within the USSR. It seems however that he’s about to achieve the opposite: U.S. President Joe Biden is contemplating sending thousands of American GIs to Eastern Europe. And for the first time since the Cold War, a U.S. carrier battle group is heading to sea under NATO command.

[fizzmiss] 25/1/2022 08:27

Well done to the investor who bought 46k worth of TLW near close yesterday, that took balls.

[subsurface] 25/1/2022 05:16

US stocks stage blazing comeback, finish in positive territory after Dow sell-off that reached 1,115 points

[fizzmiss] 24/1/2022 17:09

Someone else who aint no fool:

Pictect Asset Management raise their short on Friday by .03%, then on the next trading day this share plunges by almost 10%, coincidence or market collaboration (corruption), you decide…
And the FCA sit on their hands and do nothing about it.

[fizzmiss] 24/1/2022 16:59

USA markets are mega crashing, tin hots and plenty spare nick nacks needed tomorrow.

[fizzmiss] 24/1/2022 16:34

It's not the oil price that's caused this, it's a possible market correction crash I mentioned in earlier posts. IMHO.

More to come over the following week, again IMHO.

Great if you're in cash.