Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 29/10/2021 00:52

Africa Press Kenya

Rahul gave press briefing in Nairobi yesterday.

[franky15] 28/10/2021 22:52

Oil has recovered a fair bit let's see if we follow suit

[waldron] 28/10/2021 22:45

Price (GBX)
45.77 -4.67% (-2.24)

Open / Last close
47.80 / 45.77

High / Low
47.80 / 45.46

Bid / Offer
45.88 / 45.99

[waldron] 28/10/2021 22:44

Price (GBX)
45.77 -4.67% (-2.24)

Open / Last close
47.80 / 45.77

High / Low
47.80 / 45.46

Bid / Offer
45.88 / 45.99

[coiin stein] 28/10/2021 22:39

started buying today.
the 50 weekly appears to offer support (but not guaranteed)...
my short term target is around 140.
hope to see you all there ..

[coiin stein] 28/10/2021 22:38

ditto mrt.. started buying today.
the 50 weekly appears to offer support (but not guaranteed)...
my short term target is around 140.
hope to see you all there ..

[mrthomas] 28/10/2021 22:21

Have brought back in today given its below 50p made cash in the past on this stock when it was 11p so lets see how it does now

[fizzmiss] 28/10/2021 21:58

I said it from day one, Raúl is a little lazy squeaky mouse put in a cage of lions, very weak and inept but put in place for personal agenda! ;)

The lions see this as with the prat of a CEO at PMO and are ripping him to shreds because he likes his belly tickling.

TLW needs a man and not a mouse to run our company, TLW, get rid pronto before It's too late.
Raul arrived at 45p. Crashed the share price to 7p with oil at -$20 and now back at 45p with oil at $85.

Yep amazing facts, jog on Raul we need a man's man to run our company and not a squeaky lazy mouse. ROAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR!

[fizzmiss] 28/10/2021 21:37

Fantastic posts lol
Smoke and mirrors petal made by paid rampers to state false propaganda and sway investors minds away from developing facts.

TLW IS nothing more than PMO part 2

Go check out what these scum did with PMO with ease.

It's all fact and happening in front of your eyes with TLW

It's all in the share price performance compared to the mega oil price rise.

Corrupt as you like.

BAN SHORTING AND SHARE PRICE MANIPULATION!

Investors need to ban together and sue the FSA for lack of action and loss of investments, they do jack shlite for investors and simply cream of the top of illegal monitory fraud; when they are shamed into acting.

[thommie] 28/10/2021 21:31

some fantastic posts by booty and xxnjr! enjoyed reading.I think both of you are right. while knowing rahul isnt presenting wet dreams that wont come true it will restate trust in the company that actually things come true he promises. on the other hand booty is surely right, that presenting the whole outlook would have been good in attracting better refinancing terms. but overall this deal gave them stability and the possibility to turn around the ship. no matter if they would have been able to get 1-2% better interest rates.again I have to say and I really hope tullow will follow bootys and my opinion in that... the easiest way to add robust unhedged production backdated from april paying for itself in 1-2years is using the pre emption rights. they do have more than enough cash on hand, they dont need to get more debt. if needed there would be the possibility to draw up to 600m (or was it 500?) from the additional credit facility they put in place. they know exactly what they buy and what potential it has for a very cheap price. you can present a 10 year plan, presenting a turnaround of the business and quoting the superior IRR options while letting pass such a possibility to even get more of this sugar piece! who would believe in your plan if you neglect to buy a bigger stake of it for a cheap price?taking into account pre emption rights against gnpc as well tlw could be looking at an additional 5% jubilee stake plus 11% TEN stake. directly adding 7500 bopd of unhedged production for around 200m... you have to be MAD not to use this opportunity!!but Im sure my post wont impress rahul :) I do have trust in what he is doing, as he always was doing what he said.

[fizzmiss] 28/10/2021 21:30

Forget your silly production guidance, bigger games being played here and it ain't for investors interests

Nothing but an interest payment, Oil player, managed by RAUL.

Expect yet more mega sell off on the cheap when the share price is manufactured lower by sewer rat shorting scum. And TLW major assets are sold off on the very cheap.

Crusty won't develop other oil fields to bring in value, because he knows full well they have mega oil reserves but are worth less when he makes the final fire sale to his mates.

PMO PART 2
Worked before without comment from the FSA and will work again.

Watch this space.

[bootycall] 28/10/2021 21:17

@xxnjr Thank you for referencing the transcripts of a recent presentation which proves both our points. Guidance is given AFTER reservoir management is taken into account not before (see base case assumptions in small print of capital markets day slides). Rahul was making the point Jubilee is a waterflood recovery field which has associated gas which should be supplied as per the offtake agreement to the Ghanaians …to do nothing is a meaningless concept. There are plenty of reserves and all that is needed is basic reservoir management to maintain production levels. If one excludes the contribution of the J56 well, production has fallen from 73kbpd gross at the start of the year to 70kbpd by mid October. See you own abstract ! That does not make a 25% decline rate. The natural decline is alleviated by water injection and gas off take. The implications for next years production will depend on the productivity of new wells being brought on stream . As Rahul comments later in the same transcript,” the real constraint is gas handling capacity “ we can simply “turn a valve” to bring on more high GOR production.

So lets get back to the conservative nature of guidance. J56 came on production at a rate of over 10kbpd against the 6-8kbpd guidance to the market. This does not surprise me at all bearing in mind I think about 5 wells came on stream in Jubilee in excess of 15kbpd and the acreage on the eastern flank is just as promising. Furthermore, as you can see from the recent presentation slides, the new projects on the Eastern flanks are new projects and the new wells are unlikely IMO to show meaningful decline in the first few years of production (similar to the production profile of other wells in Jubilee).
Re Ten, the Ntomme 6 well may well boost production by the order of 6-8kbpd if it does its job…which i think it will.

What I want people to realise is how conservative production guidance is…particularly when you consider the partners appear to have agreed in principle, to a second rig. Assuming 5 further wells per annum on Jubilee it would be easy to get to nameplate capacity..but we will require a consistent gas offtake agreement with the Ghanaians. Tullow can afford to give them the gas for nothing and we would all make a fortune and help our carbon footprint at the same time.

I encourage investors to read the bottom of page 13 of the presentation transcript on Tullows website for the half year results dated 15th September 2021. Rahul clearly states that “You talked about acceleration. So we are working with our joint venture partners. I think at the current level of oil prices, we feel comfortable to bring in a second rig……230;so I AM HOPING TO BRING IN A SECOND RIG BY SOMETIME IN 2023…” if prices are “kind of north of 60ish we would look to do that.
I have news for you xxnjr, most analysts think oil prices will be north of $60 per barrel and rumour has it that Tullow is tendering for a second rig……until Tulllow knows when the rig would be available it would be imprudent to say this will be in 2022 or 2023 …so go figure who’s going to be right about medium term production guidance. Anticipating the most likely scenario is not a bad way of investing. Lastly remember Kosmos talked about 100kbpd gross for Jubilee in 2023…based on the agreed numbers from the joint venture and only one rig in deployment.

Booty


Please do not rely on the accuracy of any facts or opinions contained in the above post when making an investment decision.

[fizzmiss] 28/10/2021 20:18

Ditto, this guy was brought in for a reason, and he don't have the shareholder's interests at heart IMHO.

He has turned TLW into nothing more than an interest payment company for his master lenders and has his own personal agenda.

Seen it with PMO; this clown has no interest in shareholders or our investments.

Get Crusty out pronto and side show Bob les

Every time Raul speaks, the share price crashed.

He arrived at 45p a share, debt reduced by appalling cheap sell off, cut staff mega to save cash; Oil was at $40.

Now we have an appalling lending deal and oil at $85 and still the share price is struggling to hold onto 45p?

2 reasons; Crusty has his own agenda... or the sewer rat shorters are blatantly manipulating the share price for mafia style agenda.. As with PMO.


Crusty needs to grow a set if he is the mosiagh boasted by many and sort out this share price corrupt manipulation, if not resign and take monkey les with you.

Investors are fed up with being ripped off by the 1% elite.

[mcsean2164] 28/10/2021 19:44

Any chance of a dividend from tullow? Did Rahul say anything about that? Pretty worried about the current share price with respect to banking convenants etc.

[fizzmiss] 28/10/2021 18:28

Anyone else noticed the fact that every time these clowns give a trading update the share price tanks lol

I'm dreading the 17th Nov

[fizzmiss] 28/10/2021 18:21

Watch or read that at your own risk, you will fall asleep within a minute.

Raul has turned this into nothing more than a cash cow for its lenders.

Saving the jewels in the crown for the buyers when they buy it for pennies.

He has a proven record with TLW of bringing nothing but pain and no gain for shareholders

Lazy git in short, sat back filling his swag bags whilst he fills his own agenda.

[xxnjr] 28/10/2021 17:04

Bootycall - OK I'll have a go and take up the challenge!

25% underlying annual decline if you do nothing was the number Rahul referenced in one of his recent presentations.

Doing something could include drilling wells (including injectors) or upgrading the FPSO (gas handling/water injection etc) or having higher gas off take from GNGC or increasing flaring.

JUB Production in Dec 2019 was 89,807 bopd and Dec 2020 was 71,070 bopd.
Or -20.8% decline.

That was despite an FPSO shutdown in Jan 2020 that upgraded gas handling by 20 mmscfd, GNGC increasing gas off take from 67 mmscfd Dec 2019 to 126 mmscfd Dec 2020, flaring increasing from 3mmscfd Dec 2019 to 17.6 mmscfd Dec 2020 and they also increased water injection by a fair amount.

In 2020Y Jan to Dec decline on TEN was 22.2% despite some FPSO upgrades to gas handling amongst other stuff, as well as drilling NT-09 that was supposed to add 10K but delivered 5K at best.

Going by that -25% underlying annual decline if you do nothing seems realistic.

Edit :-

Here's the actual quote. Just found it:-

"Rahul Dhir: Yeah. So I’m going to try to see if I can break it down a little bit looking at kind
of this year. So if you take kind of Jubilee production, right, and the underlying decline, if you
do nothing, you don’t handle gas, no water injection, you would have about a 20-25%
underlying decline in that field. Okay, that’s a kind of natural phenomenon. If I look at the
first half of the year, we’ve held Jubilee largely flat, okay? And it’s hard to disaggregate, but
we’ve had two phenomena happening. One is we’ve had voidage, basically you’re seeing the pressure effects pretty quickly. Right?
So that’s – and the pressure effect, the pressure maintenance effect of that. But higher
pressure also means that it affects your GORs. Okay, so that’s one dimension to it, and I’m
going to complicate it further. The second thing that’s happened is that we’ve increased our
gas processing capacity. So if I increase, let’s say, by 5,000 scfs a day, right, and if I have a
gas oil ratio of – that may allow me to produce let’s say, another 1,000 barrels a day of high
GOR barrels. Yeah? So, this year, so today, let’s say Jubilee we’re at 80,000 plus barrels a
day, or about 80,000 barrels a day. We started the year at 73. So the mix today that we’re
seeing is partly through facilities expansion, partly through improved water injection, and
partly through the addition of the J56 well.
So that’s sort of, I’m not – I can’t disaggregate it further than that without actually being on
the model. But I hope that answers your question to some extent."

[kulvinder] 28/10/2021 16:40

Tell me about it Badger, if we had that sort of hind sight we would all be millionaires...just hope it does not drop much further but anything is possible with this stock as we have found out over last 3 years...

[badger36] 28/10/2021 16:36

Guess the buy and hold strategy has been debunked since TA took over the world We all had ample opportunity to trade it and it's sore to have missed such a glorious opportunity