Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[franky15] 07/6/2020 22:16

I think you're right

[gregpeck7] 07/6/2020 22:03

I think you will find it's 11.

[gregpeck7] 07/6/2020 21:34

11pm for Brent I think.

[mcsean2164] 07/6/2020 20:35

Turnaround.

[dbensimon] 07/6/2020 20:00

Thank you.

[dbensimon] 07/6/2020 17:56

Does anyone know what time the commodities futures start? Should give us an indication of the oil price tomorrow.

[nicebut] 07/6/2020 16:40

Ah ok ..just noted the difference between Thurs & Fri

[sbb1x] 07/6/2020 16:21

Citadel are up and down like a yoyo above and below reporting threshold

[allseeingeye1] 07/6/2020 15:03

I guarantee more hedge funds got squeezed on Friday and this is the start of the funds buying back as oil is going to rocket, Tullow is in a very strong position and this week will see huge gains

[nicebut] 07/6/2020 14:52

I see Citadel reduced as reported on Friday...down from .52% to below .5%- Perhaps a few more closed on Friday?

[sif12] 07/6/2020 10:35

I think one of the key points is Nigerians, Irqis and those who didnt cut fully, will have to make up their cuts, so the cuts in maintaining in real terms are actually an increase.

This there's a fair chance oil will hit $50 this week

[leoneobull] 07/6/2020 09:36

Liebl says it's important to remember that despite the rise in May, WTI is still lower than in early March, just before Saudi Arabia and Russia called off their deal to cut output. Prices settled around $46 the day before news of the deal's collapse."The majority of companies in the industry don't make money at these low prices, and even Russia and Saudi [Arabia] need oil to be higher than $55 a barrel to balance their budgets," said Alissa Corcoran, analyst and director of research at Kopernik Global Investors. "These low prices aren't sustainable for any meaningful period of time, which has posed very attractive buying opportunities for us."However, the OPEC+ decision to extend production cuts may cause supplies to tighten too much before year end, said Leigh Goehring, managing partner at investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg. "The rolling over of OPEC production cuts will cause the global oil market to fall into severe deficit by the fourth quarter."U.S. shale production may see a "huge fall-off" starting in the third quarter, Goehring said. Combined with a continued rebound in demand, that would result in "huge inventory drawdowns" by the middle of the third quarter that will accelerate into the fourth quarter.Still, higher prices may eventually lead to more shale production, and the path for demand remains uncertain.

[leoneobull] 07/6/2020 08:48

Oil price.comThe oil market is set for a deficit from August onwards, even after OPEC+ eases the current cuts that are up for a tentative extension through July, Rystad Energy analysts said on Friday.Assuming that global demand recovery continues in the coming months, the oil market will still be in deficit even after the OPEC+ group relaxes the current cuts from 9.7 million bpd to 7.7 million bpd, as currently planned, Rystad Energy's Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, said, as carried by Oilfield Technology."That will ensure a fundamental support for prices, while also spurring a quicker reactivation of curtailed US oil production, and eventually frac crews ending their holidays early," Tonhaugen said in a note.

[subsurface] 07/6/2020 02:26

Allseeingeye1

Why didn,t someone take over at the lowest price 7p if you look at Tullows production numbers.

Gross production from the Jubilee field averaged 79,200 bopd (net: 28,100 bopd) in the first quarter of 2020. The field continues to perform well with improved uptime and reliable gas offtake allowing recent rates above 90,000 bopd gross
Gross production from the TEN fields averaged 51,700 bopd (net: 24,400 bopd) in the first quarter of 2020. Work on the Ntomme-9 production well continues and the well is expected to come on stream in June

Name plate capacity Jubilee 120,000bbs/day Ten 80,000bbls day
lots of upside
report from 2018

Tullow have not had a sustained high production run yet through a whole range of operational issues.

[koetser] 06/6/2020 21:22

60p is about right in my opinion too.

[sif12] 06/6/2020 21:15

So even discounting the hedges and on a cashflow multiple of only 5 based on the significant volatility oil price.. at $50 thats a mcap of $1bn, £800M and an share price of 60 pence.

with hedges and assuming we can get back to $60 next year thats probably double that so 120 pence?

[sif12] 06/6/2020 21:05

So the 575m from recent sales how could that effect/ reduce debt payments? What are they likely to pay down or will they keep as cash?

Without the hedges i had free cashflow BE at $42. If oil stays at around $50 then av 75000 bpd thats $200m annually.

With hedges for 2020 and 2021 its another >$150m

Am i missing aything here?

[dbensimon] 06/6/2020 18:16

Good news in terms of pushing the oil price up and for Monday morning when the market opens!

[bearnecessities] 06/6/2020 18:03

All Opec and Opec+ members have just officially agreed to extend cuts :D

[atlantic57] 06/6/2020 16:51

Short term oil could be very volatile but longer term say 4th quarter 2020 an upwards cycle is a reasonable expectation in my view