Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[whatsthepoint] 05/6/2020 14:30

Yes but this is way way way too cheap. Has just about missed all the recent recovery in oil and the main markets.

[sbb1x] 05/6/2020 14:27

The whole market feels too good to be trueDow futures close to 27000!

[qs99] 05/6/2020 14:17

US employment stats v gd and oil price up.....

[waldron] 05/6/2020 14:13

32.58p might be first hurdle

[whatsthepoint] 05/6/2020 14:12

Here comes the breakout

[whatsthepoint] 05/6/2020 13:57

Some decent large buys well over offer going through

[whatsthepoint] 05/6/2020 13:54

50p must be a very genuine short term target now.

[xxnjr] 05/6/2020 13:51

FWIW Stock on Loan data was

End Jan: 4.66%
End Feb: 5.81%
End Mar: 11.71%
End Apr: 11.50%
End May: 12.32%

Not sure if the shorts make as much a difference as some folks on here believe.
It's the fundamental's that matter surely; OP, Debt, Asset Deal Cash Received, Meeting/exceeding Production and Cashflow Forecasts.

The OP and Asset Deal(s) closing would seem to be the biggest risks.
Not to mention Mr Market continuing up, or a pull back?

[whatsthepoint] 05/6/2020 13:51

Shorts must be getting a tad worried now. How do they cover nearly 10% without causing a stampede for shares.

[heialex1] 05/6/2020 13:49

Agreed. If oil holds this level or continues to increase I would have thought TLW should get to 60p pretty swiftly. Stocks tend to drop faster than they rise...

[whatsthepoint] 05/6/2020 13:42

Compare the TLW chart to the oil chart and TLW is way out of sync

[whatsthepoint] 05/6/2020 13:38

Brent futures over $42 this should be way over 30p massive dislocate from recent oil rally. This will have to pop again soon.

[bigbigdave] 05/6/2020 13:37

Brent up 5%

[kenbos] 05/6/2020 13:33

Thinking of getting a few of these can anyone tell me why it has taken such a large hit from £2 plus to this level ? I understand the fall in oil price and covid but is another reason here as well ? Thanks for any information

[bootycall] 05/6/2020 13:22

I believe there is a decent Institutional seller(not declarable), who has been selling down for the past couple of months. I believe that line will clear shortly judging by the volume that has been going through. There is a good chance that the shorters have been relying on this overhang. The stock lend at the end of May was reportedly (LSE CHAT) 12% so there is a large position to cover.
IF anyone doubts the recovery potential of the share price...I would recommend they look at the share price of Kosmos, which has the lions share of valuation coming from identical or similar production assets in Ghana & Equitorial Guinea and exploration upside in the Suriname/Guyana basin. They even have a whopping RBL facility to match Tullow.

The Kosmos share price has risen from 75 to 185 in the last month .....that tells you all you need to know. As the technical position resolves...which is highly likely considering the rise in the oil price (allowing the Company to put a floor under pricing and make the payment of the near term convertible a given ) the share price should catch up accordingly.

Part of the problem is that institutions do not like to start new holdings without meeting the new management team. This will be possible in the next few weeks. If the production outlook given by Kosmos of our key producing assets is confirmed by the new CEO we should be flying.


Please do not rely on the facts or opinions expressed when making an investment decision.

[sbb1x] 05/6/2020 13:14

Post on PMO board about shorts by andy pWage,A quick explanation with made up prices and names:Mr Hedge borrows 100m shares off Mr Sacks when the share price is £1, he then sells all the shares on the open market to the likes of Mr White and others. Those shares are now in general circulation and Mr White thinks he's got a bargain.Mr Hedge needs to give 100m shares back to Mr Sacks at some point in the future, he can either buy them back on the open market or get pugmier oil in a position where they have no choice but to offer Mr Hedge some sweeteners to agree to extending their debt, given pugmier oils previous Mr Hedge takes that option.Pugmier sells Mr Hedge 100m shares for 25p, Mr Hedge gives those shares back to Mr Sacks and pockets 75p for each share less costs and Mr White claims foul play as he is underwater.Hope that helps.

[sbb1x] 05/6/2020 12:48

Just bought a few of your #jkx now big seller has cleared.

[mcsean2164] 05/6/2020 12:32

I expect you're correct re oil price but just to bear in mind they are not tethering on the verge of catastrophe. They have considerable runway yet, probably 3 years at least. If you think UK is bad have at look at our government debt (Ireland).

[cool hand kev] 05/6/2020 12:12

bigbigdave: Yes Agreed

[bigbigdave] 05/6/2020 11:59

If there is any symmetry to the TLW chart (and why not as folk go back to work and demand for oil picks up) I reckon 60p by the end of August which would be a bowl back to January's share price

[mcsean2164] 05/6/2020 11:57

sif12,

Didn't they just raise $25.6 billion from Aramco.



This talk of the end of the world for the Saudi's... they are pretty well positioned with respect to a lot of other coutries.

In 2018 Saudi Arabia public debt was 126,348 million euros 149,217 million dollars, has increased 31,015 million since 2017. This amount means that the debt in 2018 reached 18.98% of Saudi Arabia GDP, a 1.82 percentage point rise from 2017, when it was 17.16% of GDP

Compare that with the UK

At the end of the financial year ending March 2019, UK general government gross debt was £1,821.3 billion, equivalent to 85.2% of gross domestic product