Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 30/1/2020 08:34

Shares go up then downBuying opportunity?

[smartie6] 30/1/2020 08:32

SR, didn’t think it would be such a downward slope first thing. If this breaks 50p this morning I don’t think my 48p will be correct, could be much lower, especially if WHO announce a crisis. Could we see 41p again.

[sentimentrules] 30/1/2020 08:15

Welcome home bears

[smartie6] 30/1/2020 07:49

Imho I can’t see any positives today. Between a 5% and 10% fall is going to be telling. If it breaks 50p could we be looking at 47 to 48p?

[smartie6] 30/1/2020 07:35

Looks like Leon has also been looking through the papers again. Leon you do know there are legal cases for plagiarism out there. Lol.
Always pushing the “Tullows a healthy business with a future” line. He must be well down on this one.

[smartie6] 30/1/2020 07:32

Look at stumpy being negative, he must be shorting again. Lol.

Not looking good this morning guys, could we really see a 10% decline today?

[stupmy] 30/1/2020 07:07

I still see the 41 p area coming into play. That's about a 20% drop in share price from here. Placing? Dilution? I'll try to be nimble and don't think I'll be accumulating here. The risk is very real. US500 looking fragile in the face of coronavirus. The Chinese are suggesting the epidemic will peak after about 10 weeks. Even if that's true, the rate at which people are dying suggests that this will be a big deal. Death rate still seems to be 2-3%, but the figures I base that on are wholly unreliable. POO still on the slide also. There's a lot of risk to factor in here, even more than elsewhere I'd have said.

[leoneobull] 30/1/2020 05:11

ullow isn't dead and its cash flows won't collapse. The free cash flow will come in lower, that's for sure. But on a normalized basis, the free cash flow will be roughly twice as high as the $150M Tullow has been guiding for. Even if you would still include $50M in exploration expenses per year. So despite being fully on board with delivering a bad news message, Tullow could have and probably should have provided more background as a $150M free cash flow on a $2.8B net debt sounds disastrous while a $300M-plus free cash flow makes the net debt sound manageable.All eyes are now on the debt repayment scheduleOne of the main reasons for the recent collapse is the market's fear of how Tullow Oil will now have to refinance its debt that will come due over the next few years. For 2020, there doesn't appear to be a problem and the $362M Tullow had in cash on the balance sheet as of the end of June (which will likely have increased by now) combined with the expected net cash inflow this year should be more than sufficient to repay the 211M GBP debt that comes due later this year.So for  2020, I don't see any issue, but I agree that Tullow may face a tougher time to repay the $722M due in 2021 and $1.07B due in 2022 as it's impossible for the current cash on hand and the anticipated free cash flow to cover these repayments. This means that some of the debt will have to be rolled over into the future, and that's why Tullow Oil should keep its credit facility provider as a friend. Approximately $1.35B has been drawn down from the line of credit while there's an additional allowance of $1.1B (although I wouldn't rule out the possibility the lender will cut the total allowed size of the credit facility as it's a reserve-based lending deal and I'm also unsure how the partial sales of the Kenyan and Ugandan assets will impact the reserve based lending facility), which will help to cover the debt repayments in 2021 and a part of the repayments in 2022 as well.Investment thesisThis means Tullow Oil has approximately 18 months to convince the markets it has a sound strategic plan to get the business back on track with a maximized cash flow in order to continue reducing its net debt. Asset sales (Uganda/Kenya) will provide a lot of breathing room should Tullow be able to execute on those, but I fully agree to cut the dividend in order to focus on the debt reduction.Tullow Oil's free cash flow will remain very strong, but this will be hidden by the $100M decommissioning bill expected in 2020 and the continuous investment in exploration ($75M). So if Tullow really wanted to, it could further increase its free cash flow from 2021 as some non-recurring expenses will only have to be paid for this year and a temporary suspension of exploration programs could keep more cash in the treasury.But of course, we shouldn't sugar coat things either. Tullow is in a tough space and its guidance update is absolutely disappointing. It will now be important for the company to appoint the right CEO to pull the company out of the swamp. Tullow has a chance, but this is where the quality of a management team will play an important role."

[leoneobull] 30/1/2020 05:05

Tlw finding value Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4319917-tullow-oil-finding-value-in-rubble-after-share-price-collapses

[leoneobull] 29/1/2020 21:05

Https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-trade-war-uk-brexit-huawei-iran-boris-johnson-2020-1?IR=TBREXIT reality hits home

[turvart] 29/1/2020 19:06

Maturo,

You don't know that information for certain surely?

Well I for one will miss Whites123 I thought he was a good poster actually, but each to their own opinion.

[maturo] 29/1/2020 16:46

Ref. - Turvart 25 Jan '20 - 20:59 - 40677 - What has happened to Whites123? He hasn't posted for ages? makes me laugh he does such a funny guy.

Not missed by many as it seem the Bank pull the rack on the debt, the window was open and nobody with a blanket on the ground.

Sometimes it pays to listen

[sbb1x] 29/1/2020 15:55

We need some good news

[crossing_the_rubicon] 29/1/2020 11:17

"Leoneobull29 Jan '20 - 09:32 - 40821 of 40824
Yes, Thailand isn't in the EU. Well done, RubiCON"


Well if you knew that what was the point of your childish


"Leoneobull29 Jan '20 - 06:57 - 40818 of 40824
As for free movement, you are in Thailand a lot of the time, aren't you?"

remark then?

[sentimentrules] 29/1/2020 11:00

Bears have it in opening hour

51.26p the next test . Expect it to relent . Then 20.7p whenever

[sbb1x] 29/1/2020 10:57

Yesterday Ut 2.9m @53pToday close 54.5p or above...

[smartie6] 29/1/2020 10:50

Looks like a bad finish to the day.
Any possibility 47p by end of week. Beginning to get that slippery slope feeling?

[leoneobull] 29/1/2020 09:32

Yes, Thailand isn't in the EU. Well done, RubiCON

[crossing_the_rubicon] 29/1/2020 08:38

Leoneobull
"As for free movement, you are in Thailand a lot of the time, aren't you?"

Last time I looked Thailand wasnt in the EU. It is also one country, not 27 countries so FREE Movement of people would,at worst, be for 69 million not 450-500million odd that EU is!!

Also there is no FOM between UK and Thailand last time I looked either.

Your continued Remoaner moaning is pathetic.

[littlepuppi7] 29/1/2020 08:32

People trying to get back on that thought it would pull back lolWhoops.

[leoneobull] 29/1/2020 06:57

ABB. We have control of our money...As for free movement, you are in Thailand a lot of the time, aren't you?

[leoneobull] 29/1/2020 06:54

Low ball bid coming nice to be quoted. Times onlineToday 06:32Awealthy African oil executive's purchase of a near-10 per cent stake in Tullow Oil gave the explorer's shares a much-needed boost yesterday. Samuel Dossou-Aworet has become the company's largest shareholder, taking advantage of a recent share price slide to lift his stake to 9.67 per cent.The Benin native first acquired a stake in 2004, when Energy Africa, the exploration business that he co-founded in the 1990s, was bought by Tullow for £275 million.The latest purchase sparked speculation that Mr Dossou-Aworet may be lining up a bid for Tullow, whose value has fallen by 65 per cent since it cut its production outlook, suspended its dividend and parted ways with its chief executive last month."Pretty obvious [a] lowball bid coming," one investor said, although the City's analysts weren't convinced. They questioned whether the businessman has enough financial muscle to pull off a deal by himself, given the company's $3 billion debts. Others suggested that Mr Dossou-Aworet could be adding to his holdings in anticipation that a bidder might come out of the woodwork.Of course, there is also a third, perhaps more realistic, option: he is sweeping up Tullow Oil shares while they are going cheap. The stock rose 2½p, or 5 per cent, to 53p yesterday.

[sentimentrules] 28/1/2020 23:04

Work 16 hours? Why would you do that? Get less benefit lool

Only advantage I see is controlling viruses as they break out